Uncertainty and risk: politics and analysis

In environmental and sustainable development policy issues, and in infrastructural megaprojects and issues of innovative medical technologies as well, public authorities face emergent complexity, high value diversity, difficult-to-structure problems, high decision stakes, high uncertainty, and thus risk. In practice, it is believed, this often leads to crises, controversies, deadlocks, and policy fiascoes. Decision-makers are said to face a crisis in coping with uncertainty. Both the cognitive structure of uncertainty and the political structure of risk decisions have been studied. So far, these scientific literatures exist side by side, with few apparent efforts at theoretically conceptualizing and empirically testing the links between the two. Therefore, this exploratory and conceptual paper takes up the challenge: How should we conceptualize the cognitive structure of uncertainty? How should we conceptualize the political structure of risk? How can we conceptualize the link(s) between the two? Is there any empirical support for a conceptualization that bridges the analytical and political aspects of risk? What are the implications for guidelines for risk analysis and assessment

Investigation of the effects of group composition and conference structure on group creativity and induvidual perceptions of transactional distance in university students

PhD ThesisThe main purpose of this study was to investigate online collaborative activities based on the differences of individual students, to enhance creativity in small groups and reduce transactional distance (TD) in an online learning environment. The relationships among gender, thinking styles, individual creative ability and group creativity were also explored. Both experimental and survey data were collected to provide a rich understanding of the related issues. Different grouping and structuring strategies were developed and manipulated in this work. The 3 x 3 factorial quasi-experimental design employed a pretest-posttest comparison group, with two independent variables: thinking styles and conference structure. The dependent variables were group creativity and student perceptions of transactional distance. One hundred and thirty-eight second year students from three intact classes at Southern Taiwan University were selected as the participants for the main study. Four research instruments were used to collect data: the Thinking Styles Inventory (TSI), the Abbreviated Torrance Test for Adults (ATTA), the Creative Product Semantic Scale (CPSS), and the individual’s perceptions of transactional distance questionnaire. The findings confirmed that male students tended to prefer the legislative thinking style more than the female ones. There was no significant difference between male and female students in the overall creative ability. However, the male students had significantly higher creative ability with regard to originality. The findings also supported Sternberg’s argument that ability is different from style. In addition, this study found that there was no significant association between the average group member creative ability and the overall group creative performance. As for the test results for the influences of the two proposed factors in terms of group composition and conference structure on group creativity, no significant differences were found for these two factors or their interaction on group creativity. In addition, group composition and conference structure had no significant interaction effect on any dimension of transactional distance, but two main effects were significant. Group composition had a significant effect on the learner autonomy dimension of transactional distance. The level of conference structure had a significant effect on individual perceptions of interaction, conference structure and interface transactional distance. Moreover, in the context of the present study, using synchronous online conferencing, a high degree of TD - interaction was associated with a high degree of TD - conference structure, TD - learner autonomy and TD - interface

Improved fragment-based protein structure prediction by redesign of search heuristics

Difficulty in sampling large and complex conformational spaces remains a key limitation in fragment-based de novo prediction of protein structure. Our previous work has shown that even for small-to-medium-sized proteins, some current methods inadequately sample alternative structures. We have developed two new conformational sampling techniques, one employing a bilevel optimisation framework and the other employing iterated local search. We combine strategies of forced structural perturbation (where some fragment insertions are accepted regardless of their impact on scores) and greedy local optimisation, allowing greater exploration of the available conformational space. Comparisons against the Rosetta Abinitio method indicate that our protocols more frequently generate native-like predictions for many targets, even following the low-resolution phase, using a given set of fragment libraries. By contrasting results across two different fragment sets, we show that our methods are able to better take advantage of high-quality fragments. These improvements can also translate into more reliable identification of near-native structures in a simple clustering-based model selection procedure. We show that when fragment libraries are sufficiently well-constructed, improved breadth of exploration within runs improves prediction accuracy. Our results also suggest that in benchmarking scenarios, a total exclusion of fragments drawn from homologous templates can make performance differences between methods appear less pronounced

Appendicitis and its associated mortality and morbidity in infants up to 3 months of age:A systematic review

Background and Aims: Although appendicitis is rare in young infants, the reported mortality is high. Primary aim of this systematic review was to provide updated insights in the mortality and morbidity (postoperative complications, Clavien-Dindo grades I–IV) of appendicitis in infants ≤3 months of age. Secondary aims comprised the evaluation of patient characteristics, diagnostic work-up, treatment strategies, comorbidity, and factors associated with poor outcome. Methods: This systematic review was reported according to the PRISMA statement with a search performed in Pubmed, Embase and Web of Science (up to September 5th 2022). Original articles (published in English ≥1980) reporting on infants ≤3 months of age with appendicitis were included. Both patients with abdominal appendicitis and herniated appendicitis (such as Amyand's hernia) were considered. Data were provided descriptively. Results: In total, 131 articles were included encompassing 242 cases after identification of 4294 records. Overall, 184 (76%) of the 242 patients had abdominal and 58 (24%) had herniated appendicitis. Two-hundred (83%) of the patients were newborns (≤28 days) and 42 (17%) were infants between 29 days and ≤3 months of age. Either immediate, or after initial conservative treatment, 236 (98%) patients underwent surgical treatment. Some 168 (69%) patients had perforated appendicitis. Mortality was reported in 20 (8%) patients and morbidity in an additional 18 (8%). All fatal cases had abdominal appendicitis and fatal outcome was relatively more often reported in newborns, term patients, patients with relevant comorbidity, nonperforated appendicitis and those presented from home. Conclusion: Mortality was reported in 20 (8%) infants ≤3 months of age and additional morbidity in 18 (8%). All patients with fatal outcome had abdominal appendicitis. Several patient characteristics were relatively more often reported in infants with poor outcome and adequate monitoring, early recognition and prompt treatment may favour the outcome.</p

Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial comparing the efficacy of a specialist and a generic parenting programme for the treatment of preschool ADHD

BACKGROUND: The New Forest Parenting Programme (NFPP) is a home-delivered, evidence-based parenting programme to target symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in preschool children. It has been adapted for use with 'hard-to-reach' or 'difficult-to-treat' children. This trial will compare the adapted-NFPP with a generic parenting group-based programme, Incredible Years (IY), which has been recommended for children with preschool-type ADHD symptoms.METHODS/DESIGN: This multicentre randomized controlled trial comprises three arms: adapted-NFPP, IY and treatment as usual (TAU). A sample of 329 parents of preschool-aged children with a research diagnosis of ADHD enriched for hard-to-reach and potentially treatment-resistant children will be allocated to the arms in the ratio 3:3:1. Participants in the adapted-NFPP and IY arms receive an induction visit followed by 12 weekly parenting sessions of 1½ hours (adapted-NFPP) or 2½ hours (IY) over 2.5 years. Adapted-NFPP will be delivered as a one-to-one home-based intervention; IY, as a group-based intervention. TAU participants are offered a parenting programme at the end of the study. The primary objective is to test whether the adapted-NFPP produces beneficial effects in terms of core ADHD symptoms. Secondary objectives include examination of the treatment impact on secondary outcomes, a study of cost-effectiveness and examination of the mediating role of treatment-induced changes in parenting behaviour and neuropsychological function. The primary outcome is change in ADHD symptoms, as measured by the parent-completed version of the SNAP-IV questionnaire, adjusted for pretreatment SNAP-IV score. Secondary outcome measures are: a validated index of behaviour during child's solo play; teacher-reported SNAP-IV (ADHD scale); teacher and parent SNAP-IV (ODD) Scale; Eyberg Child Behaviour Inventory - Oppositional Defiant Disorder scale; Revised Client Service Receipt Inventory - Health Economics Costs measure and EuroQol (EQ5D) health-related quality-of-life measure. Follow-up measures will be collected 6 months after treatment for participants allocated to adapted-NFPP and IY.DISCUSSION: This trial will provide evidence as to whether the adapted-NFPP is more effective and cost-effective than the recommended treatment and TAU. It will also provide information about mediating factors (improved parenting and neuropsychological function) and moderating factors (parent and child genetic factors) in any increased benefit.TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN39288126.</p

Evaluation of model refinement in CASP13.

Performance in the model refinement category of the 13th round of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP13) is assessed, showing that some groups consistently improve most starting models whereas the majority of participants continue to degrade the starting model on average. Using the ranking formula developed for CASP12, it is shown that only 7 of 32 groups perform better than a "naïve predictor" who just submits the starting model. Common features in their approaches include a dependence on physics-based force fields to judge alternative conformations and the use of molecular dynamics to relax models to local minima, usually with some restraints to prevent excessively large movements. In addition to the traditional CASP metrics that focus largely on the quality of the overall fold, alternative metrics are evaluated, including comparisons of the main-chain and side-chain torsion angles, and the utility of the models for solving crystal structures by the molecular replacement method. It is proposed that the introduction of these metrics, as well as consideration of the accuracy of coordinate error estimates, would improve the discrimination between good and very good models.Wellcome Trust Marie Sklowdowska-Curie grain for EU Horizon 202

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRANSACTIONAL ANALYSIS PSYCHOMETRIC TOOL FOR ENHANCING FUNCTIONAL FLUENCY

Functional Fluency denotes efficacy of interpersonal functioning in terms of flexibility and balance of the behavioural modes a person uses. The aim of this project is to design and create a psychometric tool for mapping the patterns of such functioning. The intention is that feedback on the test results will stimulate the insights and understanding to support and encourage positive behavioural change. This process, involving the development of self-awareness, which is a key aspect of emotional intelligence, will thus promote emotional literacy. Transactional Analysis (TA) ego state theory provides the basis for the rational-theoretical strategy of instrument construction, which uses the author's expanded TA model of ego state function, the Functional Fluency model. The resulting self-report questionnaire, the Transactional Behaviour Profile, comprises a nine-scale index of Functional Fluency, the FFI. Methodological process includes construct conceptualisation, generation of behavioural indicators and transformation of these into test items. Validation of test items leads into instrument construction followed by a Pilot Study with over 300 respondents from a broad span of human service provision. Quantitative and qualitative data analyses provide evidence of both theoretical coherence and validity of the model as well as practical efficacy of the instrument in terms of the project aims. Indications for further refinement and correlation studies are examined, and plans proposed. The theory of Transactional Analysis addresses both the interpersonal and the intrapsychic. The FFI is designed to do likewise. Thus, although the FFI model is essentially one of interpersonal functioning, appropriate in a tool for training and personal development, it could potentially contribute an objective form of behavioural diagnosis in psychotherapeutic contexts, because of its coherent theoretical links with TA structural ego state models. The thesis constitutes the research basis for what will be ongoing development of the Transactional Behaviour Profile for indexing Functional Fluency in a variety of contexts

PhyloToL: A Taxon/Gene-Rich Phylogenomic Pipeline to Explore Genome Evolution of Diverse Eukaryotes

Estimating multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) and inferring phylogenies are essential for many aspects of comparative biology. Yet, many bioinformatics tools for such analyses have focused on specific clades, with greatest attention paid to plants, animals, and fungi. The rapid increase in high-throughput sequencing (HTS) data from diverse lineages now provides opportunities to estimate evolutionary relationships and gene family evolution across the eukaryotic tree of life. At the same time, these types of data are known to be error-prone (e.g., substitutions, contamination). To address these opportunities and challenges, we have refined a phylogenomic pipeline, now named PhyloToL, to allow easy incorporation of data from HTS studies, to automate production of both MSAs and gene trees, and to identify and remove contaminants. PhyloToL is designed for phylogenomic analyses of diverse lineages across the tree of life (i.e., at scales of \u3e100 My). We demonstrate the power of PhyloToL by assessing stop codon usage in Ciliophora, identifying contamination in a taxon- and gene-rich database and exploring the evolutionary history of chromosomes in the kinetoplastid parasite Trypanosoma brucei, the causative agent of African sleeping sickness. Benchmarking PhyloToL\u27s homology assessment against that of OrthoMCL and a published paper on superfamilies of bacterial and eukaryotic organellar outer membrane pore-forming proteins demonstrates the power of our approach for determining gene family membership and inferring gene trees. PhyloToL is highly flexible and allows users to easily explore HTS data, test hypotheses about phylogeny and gene family evolution and combine outputs with third-party tools (e.g., PhyloChromoMap, iGTP)

Level of Technology Implementation and the Personality Traits of Adventist School Principals

Previous studies analyzed how personality traits relate to education, but not in relation to technology implementation. Limited knowledge can lead to inadequate professional development. This study provided insight on the “level of technology implementation” (LoTi) and the personality traits of private school principals. The theoretical frameworks of this research were the Big Five Personality Trait Model and Concerns-Based Adoption Model. The research study answered the question of the relationship, using Kendall\u27s Tau-b, between the LoTi and each of the personality traits: extraversion, openness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and agreeableness of Adventist school principals using a quantitative, non-parametric, correlational study approach. Every Adventist school principal within North America (N=799) were invited to participate. Sixty-six completed the LoTi Digital-Age Survey for Leaders and the Big Five Inventory. Findings indicated that a weak-moderate correlation was found on the personality traits of extraversion (τb = .253, p = .007) and openness (τb = .229, p = .017); no correlation was found on the personality traits of agreeableness (τb = .118, p = .215), conscientiousness (τb = .177, p = .063), and neuroticism (τb = -.157, p = .095). It is recommended that future research studies include teacher\u27s personality traits and segregation of data by age or years of experience in education. Findings affected positive social change by providing information that could be used to provide appropriate professional development with less emphasis on trainings that focus on agreeableness, conscientiousness, and neuroticism and more on those that help principals be more open to both the process and the actual technological change