ELM regime classification by conformal prediction on an information manifold

Characterization and control of plasma instabilities known as edge-localized modes (ELMs) is crucial for the operation of fusion reactors. Recently, machine learning methods have demonstrated good potential in making useful inferences from stochastic fusion data sets. However, traditional classification methods do not offer an inherent estimate of the goodness of their prediction. In this paper, a distance-based conformal predictor classifier integrated with a geometric-probabilistic framework is presented. The first benefit of the approach lies in its comprehensive treatment of highly stochastic fusion data sets, by modeling the measurements with probability distributions in a metric space. This enables calculation of a natural distance measure between probability distributions: the Rao geodesic distance. Second, the predictions are accompanied by estimates of their accuracy and reliability. The method is applied to the classification of regimes characterized by different types of ELMs based on the measurements of global parameters and their error bars. This yields promising success rates and outperforms state-of-the-art automatic techniques for recognizing ELM signatures. The estimates of goodness of the predictions increase the confidence of classification by ELM experts, while allowing more reliable decisions regarding plasma control and at the same time increasing the robustness of the control system

Hyperbolic Interaction Model For Hierarchical Multi-Label Classification

Different from the traditional classification tasks which assume mutual exclusion of labels, hierarchical multi-label classification (HMLC) aims to assign multiple labels to every instance with the labels organized under hierarchical relations. Besides the labels, since linguistic ontologies are intrinsic hierarchies, the conceptual relations between words can also form hierarchical structures. Thus it can be a challenge to learn mappings from word hierarchies to label hierarchies. We propose to model the word and label hierarchies by embedding them jointly in the hyperbolic space. The main reason is that the tree-likeness of the hyperbolic space matches the complexity of symbolic data with hierarchical structures. A new Hyperbolic Interaction Model (HyperIM) is designed to learn the label-aware document representations and make predictions for HMLC. Extensive experiments are conducted on three benchmark datasets. The results have demonstrated that the new model can realistically capture the complex data structures and further improve the performance for HMLC comparing with the state-of-the-art methods. To facilitate future research, our code is publicly available