13,899 research outputs found
Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting
In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decisionâmaking process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetricâbased neuroâfuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for shortâterm electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over wellâestablished learningâbased models
Time is of the Essence: Machine Learning-based Intrusion Detection in Industrial Time Series Data
The Industrial Internet of Things drastically increases connectivity of
devices in industrial applications. In addition to the benefits in efficiency,
scalability and ease of use, this creates novel attack surfaces. Historically,
industrial networks and protocols do not contain means of security, such as
authentication and encryption, that are made necessary by this development.
Thus, industrial IT-security is needed. In this work, emulated industrial
network data is transformed into a time series and analysed with three
different algorithms. The data contains labeled attacks, so the performance can
be evaluated. Matrix Profiles perform well with almost no parameterisation
needed. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average performs well in the
presence of noise, requiring parameterisation effort. Long Short Term
Memory-based neural networks perform mediocre while requiring a high training-
and parameterisation effort.Comment: Extended version of a publication in the 2018 IEEE International
Conference on Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW
Damage classification and estimation in experimental structures using time series analysis and pattern recognition
Peer reviewedPreprin
Empirical Formulation of Highway Traffic Flow Prediction Objective Function Based on Network Topology
Accurate Highway road predictions are necessary for timely decision making by the transport authorities. In this paper, we propose a traffic flow objective function for a highway road prediction model. The bi-directional flow function of individual roads is reported considering the net inflows and outflows by a topological breakdown of the highway network. Further, we optimise and compare the proposed objective function for constraints involved using stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural network machine learning model considering different loss functions and training optimisation strategies. Finally, we report the best fitting machine learning model parameters for the proposed flow objective function for better prediction accuracy.Peer reviewe
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