Confidence Based Consensus in Environments with High Uncertainty and Incomplete Information

With the incorporation of web 2.0 frameworks the complexity of decision making situations has exponentially increased, involving in many cases many experts, and a potentially huge number of different alternatives, leading the experts to present uncertainty with the preferences provided. In this context, intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations play a key role as they provide the experts with means to allocate the uncertainty inherent in their proposed opinions. However, in many occasions the experts are unable to give a preference due to different reasons, there- fore effective mechanisms to cope with missing information are more than necessary. In this contribution, we present a new group decision making (GDM) approach able to estimate the missing information and at the same time implements a mechanism to bring the experts’ opinions closer in an iterative process in which the experts’ confidence plays a key role

Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied.Forecasting;Electronic Markets;Information Markets;Virtual Stock Markets

PROBE-GK: Predictive Robust Estimation using Generalized Kernels

Many algorithms in computer vision and robotics make strong assumptions about uncertainty, and rely on the validity of these assumptions to produce accurate and consistent state estimates. In practice, dynamic environments may degrade sensor performance in predictable ways that cannot be captured with static uncertainty parameters. In this paper, we employ fast nonparametric Bayesian inference techniques to more accurately model sensor uncertainty. By setting a prior on observation uncertainty, we derive a predictive robust estimator, and show how our model can be learned from sample images, both with and without knowledge of the motion used to generate the data. We validate our approach through Monte Carlo simulations, and report significant improvements in localization accuracy relative to a fixed noise model in several settings, including on synthetic data, the KITTI dataset, and our own experimental platform.Comment: In Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA'16), Stockholm, Sweden, May 16-21, 201

Maximize Resolution or Minimize Error? Using Genotyping-By-Sequencing to Investigate the Recent Diversification of Helianthemum (Cistaceae)

A robust phylogenetic framework, in terms of extensive geographical and taxonomic sampling, well-resolved species relationships and high certainty of tree topologies and branch length estimations, is critical in the study of macroevolutionary patterns. Whereas Sanger sequencing-based methods usually recover insufficient phylogenetic signal, especially in recently diversified lineages, reduced-representation sequencing methods tend to provide well-supported phylogenetic relationships, but usually entail remarkable bioinformatic challenges due to the inherent trade-off between the number of SNPs and the magnitude of associated error rates. The genus Helianthemum (Cistaceae) is a species-rich and taxonomically complex Palearctic group of plants that diversified mainly since the Upper Miocene. It is a challenging case study since previous attempts using Sanger sequencing were unable to resolve the intrageneric phylogenetic relationships. Aiming to obtain a robust phylogenetic reconstruction based on genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS), we established a rigorous methodological workflow in which we i) explored how variable settings during dataset assembly have an impact on error rates and on the degree of resolution under concatenation and coalescent approaches, ii) assessed the effect of two extreme parameter configurations (minimizing error rates vs. maximizing phylogenetic resolution) on tree topology and branch lengths, and iii) evaluated the effects of these two configurations on estimates of divergence times and diversification rates. Our analyses produced highly supported topologically congruent phylogenetic trees for both configurations. However, minimizing error rates did produce more reliable branch lengths, critically affecting the accuracy of downstream analyses (i.e. divergence times and diversification rates). In addition to recommending a revision of intrageneric systematics, our results enabled us to identify three highly diversified lineages in Helianthemum in contrasting geographical areas and ecological conditions, which started radiating in the Upper Miocene.España, MINECO grants CGL2014- 52459-P and CGL2017-82465-PEspaña, Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, reference IJCI-2015-2345

Integrating genealogical and dynamical modelling to infer escape and reversion rates in HIV epitopes

The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating these parameters from cross-sectional population data using ordinary differential equations (ODE) ignore information about the genealogy of sampled HIV sequences, which has the potential to cause systematic bias and over-estimate certainty. Here, we describe an integrated approach, validated through extensive simulations, which combines genealogical inference and epidemiological modelling, to estimate rates of CTL escape and reversion in HIV epitopes. We show that there is substantial uncertainty about rates of viral escape and reversion from cross-sectional data, which arises from the inherent stochasticity in the evolutionary process. By application to empirical data, we find that point estimates of rates from a previously published ODE model and the integrated approach presented here are often similar, but can also differ several-fold depending on the structure of the genealogy. The model-based approach we apply provides a framework for the statistical analysis of escape and reversion in population data and highlights the need for longitudinal and denser cross-sectional sampling to enable accurate estimate of these key parameters

Predictive intelligence to the edge through approximate collaborative context reasoning

We focus on Internet of Things (IoT) environments where a network of sensing and computing devices are responsible to locally process contextual data, reason and collaboratively infer the appearance of a specific phenomenon (event). Pushing processing and knowledge inference to the edge of the IoT network allows the complexity of the event reasoning process to be distributed into many manageable pieces and to be physically located at the source of the contextual information. This enables a huge amount of rich data streams to be processed in real time that would be prohibitively complex and costly to deliver on a traditional centralized Cloud system. We propose a lightweight, energy-efficient, distributed, adaptive, multiple-context perspective event reasoning model under uncertainty on each IoT device (sensor/actuator). Each device senses and processes context data and infers events based on different local context perspectives: (i) expert knowledge on event representation, (ii) outliers inference, and (iii) deviation from locally predicted context. Such novel approximate reasoning paradigm is achieved through a contextualized, collaborative belief-driven clustering process, where clusters of devices are formed according to their belief on the presence of events. Our distributed and federated intelligence model efficiently identifies any localized abnormality on the contextual data in light of event reasoning through aggregating local degrees of belief, updates, and adjusts its knowledge to contextual data outliers and novelty detection. We provide comprehensive experimental and comparison assessment of our model over real contextual data with other localized and centralized event detection models and show the benefits stemmed from its adoption by achieving up to three orders of magnitude less energy consumption and high quality of inference