Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model --- are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1312.504

Inverse problems and uncertainty quantification

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. This is especially the case as together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and quadratic Bayesian update on the small but taxing example of the chaotic Lorenz 84 model, where we experiment with the influence of different observation or measurement operators on the update.Comment: 25 pages, 17 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1201.404

Consensus Message Passing for Layered Graphical Models

Generative models provide a powerful framework for probabilistic reasoning. However, in many domains their use has been hampered by the practical difficulties of inference. This is particularly the case in computer vision, where models of the imaging process tend to be large, loopy and layered. For this reason bottom-up conditional models have traditionally dominated in such domains. We find that widely-used, general-purpose message passing inference algorithms such as Expectation Propagation (EP) and Variational Message Passing (VMP) fail on the simplest of vision models. With these models in mind, we introduce a modification to message passing that learns to exploit their layered structure by passing 'consensus' messages that guide inference towards good solutions. Experiments on a variety of problems show that the proposed technique leads to significantly more accurate inference results, not only when compared to standard EP and VMP, but also when compared to competitive bottom-up conditional models.Comment: Appearing in Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 201

Computational aspects of DNA mixture analysis

Statistical analysis of DNA mixtures is known to pose computational challenges due to the enormous state space of possible DNA profiles. We propose a Bayesian network representation for genotypes, allowing computations to be performed locally involving only a few alleles at each step. In addition, we describe a general method for computing the expectation of a product of discrete random variables using auxiliary variables and probability propagation in a Bayesian network, which in combination with the genotype network allows efficient computation of the likelihood function and various other quantities relevant to the inference. Lastly, we introduce a set of diagnostic tools for assessing the adequacy of the model for describing a particular dataset

Kernel Belief Propagation

We propose a nonparametric generalization of belief propagation, Kernel Belief Propagation (KBP), for pairwise Markov random fields. Messages are represented as functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), and message updates are simple linear operations in the RKHS. KBP makes none of the assumptions commonly required in classical BP algorithms: the variables need not arise from a finite domain or a Gaussian distribution, nor must their relations take any particular parametric form. Rather, the relations between variables are represented implicitly, and are learned nonparametrically from training data. KBP has the advantage that it may be used on any domain where kernels are defined (Rd, strings, groups), even where explicit parametric models are not known, or closed form expressions for the BP updates do not exist. The computational cost of message updates in KBP is polynomial in the training data size. We also propose a constant time approximate message update procedure by representing messages using a small number of basis functions. In experiments, we apply KBP to image denoising, depth prediction from still images, and protein configuration prediction: KBP is faster than competing classical and nonparametric approaches (by orders of magnitude, in some cases), while providing significantly more accurate results