616 research outputs found

    Parkkeerausten määrän ennustaminen tunneittain kausittaisesta datasta

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    Forecasting parking occupancy in city areas has become increasingly important to give the city and drivers a way to predict the available parking spaces. The city can use this information for planning and the drivers can predict where to park their car and avoiding the need of searching for a parking space. In this paper we introduce various prediction models for forecasting parking occupancy on an hourly level and compare their forecasting performance with a dataset of parking instances. The tested models include linear regression, gradient boosting, SARIMAX, TBATS, Facebook Prophet, and two neural network classes: long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit. The experimental model results were compared against each other, and the evaluated results suggest that gradient boosting is the best performing model for our dataset. The results are evaluated both in the error metrics and training times of the models.Parkkipaikkojen käyttöasteen ennustaminen kaupunkialueilla on tullut yhä tärkeämmäksi, jotta kaupungilla ja kuljettajilla on tapa ennakoida vapaana olevia pysäköintipaikkoja. Kaupunki voi käyttää ennusteita liikenteen suunnitteluun ja kuljettajat voivat ennakoida, mihin pysäköidä autonsa ja välttää pysäköintipaikan etsimisen tuomia haittapuolia, kuten bensan- ja ajankulutusta. Tässä työssä esittelemme erilaisia ennustemalleja pysäköintien käyttöasteen ennustamiseksi tunnin välein ja vertaamme niiden ennustekykyä pysäköintitapahtuma tietoaineistoa käyttäen. Testattuihin malleihin sisältyvät lineaarinen regressio, gradient boosting, SARIMAX, TBATS, Facebook Prophet sekä kaksi neuroverkkoluokkaa: long short-term memory ja gated recurrent unit. Mallien alustavat tulokset viittaavat siihen, että gradient boosting antaa parhaat tulokset työn aineistoa käytettäessä. Mallien vertailun perusteena käytettiin sekä suorituskykyä, että koulutusaikoja

    Mobility mining for time-dependent urban network modeling

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    170 p.Mobility planning, monitoring and analysis in such a complex ecosystem as a city are very challenging.Our contributions are expected to be a small step forward towards a more integrated vision of mobilitymanagement. The main hypothesis behind this thesis is that the transportation offer and the mobilitydemand are greatly coupled, and thus, both need to be thoroughly and consistently represented in a digitalmanner so as to enable good quality data-driven advanced analysis. Data-driven analytics solutions relyon measurements. However, sensors do only provide a measure of movements that have already occurred(and associated magnitudes, such as vehicles per hour). For a movement to happen there are two mainrequirements: i) the demand (the need or interest) and ii) the offer (the feasibility and resources). Inaddition, for good measurement, the sensor needs to be located at an adequate location and be able tocollect data at the right moment. All this information needs to be digitalised accordingly in order to applyadvanced data analytic methods and take advantage of good digital transportation resource representation.Our main contributions, focused on mobility data mining over urban transportation networks, can besummarised in three groups. The first group consists of a comprehensive description of a digitalmultimodal transport infrastructure representation from global and local perspectives. The second groupis oriented towards matching diverse sensor data onto the transportation network representation,including a quantitative analysis of map-matching algorithms. The final group of contributions covers theprediction of short-term demand based on various measures of urban mobility

    Mobility mining for time-dependent urban network modeling

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    170 p.Mobility planning, monitoring and analysis in such a complex ecosystem as a city are very challenging.Our contributions are expected to be a small step forward towards a more integrated vision of mobilitymanagement. The main hypothesis behind this thesis is that the transportation offer and the mobilitydemand are greatly coupled, and thus, both need to be thoroughly and consistently represented in a digitalmanner so as to enable good quality data-driven advanced analysis. Data-driven analytics solutions relyon measurements. However, sensors do only provide a measure of movements that have already occurred(and associated magnitudes, such as vehicles per hour). For a movement to happen there are two mainrequirements: i) the demand (the need or interest) and ii) the offer (the feasibility and resources). Inaddition, for good measurement, the sensor needs to be located at an adequate location and be able tocollect data at the right moment. All this information needs to be digitalised accordingly in order to applyadvanced data analytic methods and take advantage of good digital transportation resource representation.Our main contributions, focused on mobility data mining over urban transportation networks, can besummarised in three groups. The first group consists of a comprehensive description of a digitalmultimodal transport infrastructure representation from global and local perspectives. The second groupis oriented towards matching diverse sensor data onto the transportation network representation,including a quantitative analysis of map-matching algorithms. The final group of contributions covers theprediction of short-term demand based on various measures of urban mobility

    Smart Sustainable Mobility: Analytics and Algorithms for Next-Generation Mobility Systems

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    To this date, mobility ecosystems around the world operate on an uncoordinated, inefficient and unsustainable basis. Yet, many technology-enabled solutions that have the potential to remedy these societal negatives are already at our disposal or just around the corner. Innovations in vehicle technology, IoT devices, mobile connectivity and AI-powered information systems are expected to bring about a mobility system that is connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE). In order to fully leverage the sustainability opportunities afforded by CASE, system-level coordination and management approaches are needed. This Thesis sets out an agenda for Information Systems research to shape the future of CASE mobility through data, analytics and algorithms (Chapter 1). Drawing on causal inference, (spatial) machine learning, mathematical programming and reinforcement learning, three concrete contributions toward this agenda are developed. Chapter 2 demonstrates the potential of pervasive and inexpensive sensor technology for policy analysis. Connected sensing devices have significantly reduced the cost and complexity of acquiring high-resolution, high-frequency data in the physical world. This affords researchers the opportunity to track temporal and spatial patterns of offline phenomena. Drawing on a case from the bikesharing sector, we demonstrate how geo-tagged IoT data streams can be used for tracing out highly localized causal effects of large-scale mobility policy interventions while offering actionable insights for policy makers and practitioners. Chapter 3 sets out a solution approach to a novel decision problem faced by operators of shared mobility fleets: allocating vehicle inventory optimally across a network when competition is present. The proposed three-stage model combines real-time data analytics, machine learning and mixed integer non-linear programming into an integrated framework. It provides operational decision support for fleet managers in contested shared mobility markets by generating optimal vehicle re-positioning schedules in real time. Chapter 4 proposes a method for leveraging data-driven digital twin (DT) frameworks for large multi-stage stochastic design problems. Such problem classes are notoriously difficult to solve with traditional stochastic optimization. Drawing on the case of Electric Vehicle Charging Hubs (EVCHs), we show how high-fidelity, data-driven DT simulation environments fused with reinforcement learning (DT-RL) can achieve (close-to) arbitrary scalability and high modeling flexibility. In benchmark experiments we demonstrate that DT-RL-derived designs result in superior cost and service-level performance under real-world operating conditions

    Predicting space occupancy for street paid parking

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    This dissertation discusses how to develop a prediction method for on-street parking space availability, using only historical occupancy data collected from on-street multi-space parking meters. It is analyzed how to transform the raw data into a dataset representing the occupancy and how can this information be used to detect when the parking spaces on a street are Vacant or Full. Attributes like weather conditions and holidays are added to the data, giving them more context and comprehension. After the data preparation and analysis, a prediction model is developed using machinelearning techniques that can forecast the availability of the parking spaces on a street at a specific day and on a given moment. For that, a classification method is implemented based on decision trees and neural networks, comparing both methods regarding results and development time. Particular attention is given to the algorithm parameters, to achieve the right balance between accuracy and computational time. The developed model proved effective, correctly capturing the different behavior of each street through the different weeks, and returning results useful to drivers searching for parking and to the business owners while monitoring their parking investments and returns.Esta dissertação apresenta como pode ser desenvolvido um método para previsão de disponibilidade de lugares de estacionamento em rua, utilizando dados históricos obtidos através de parquímetros de controlo a múltiplos lugares. É analisado como os dados em bruto dos parquímetros podem ser transformados num conjunto de dados que represente qual a ocupação dos lugares, e posteriormente como esta informação pode ser utilizada para detetar se o estacionamento em uma rua está livre ou ocupado. São adicionados também mais alguns atributos, como por exemplo informação sobre as condições meteorológicas ou que dias são feriados, dando mais algum contexto e compreensão à informação já existente. Após a preparação e análise dos dados, é desenvolvido um método de previsão utilizando técnicas de aprendizagem automática de modo a que seja possível saber qual a disponibilidade de estacionamento em uma rua, a um dia específico e a um determinado momento. Para isso, foi implementado um método de classificação baseado em árvores de decisão e redes neuronais, comparando ambos os métodos do ponto de vista dos resultados e do tempo de desenvolvimento. Foi dada especial atenção aos parâmetros utilizados em cada algoritmo, de modo a que haja um balanço entre a precisão e tempo de computação. O modelo desenvolvido mostrou ser eficaz, captando corretamente o comportamento de cada rua nas diferentes semanas, devolvendo resultados uteis aos condutores que procurem lugares de estacionamento e aos proprietários do negócio por lhes permitir monitorizar o desempenho dos seus investimentos em parques de estacionamento e qual o retorno

    A Data-driven Methodology Towards Mobility- and Traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data Frameworks

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    Human population is increasing at unprecedented rates, particularly in urban areas. This increase, along with the rise of a more economically empowered middle class, brings new and complex challenges to the mobility of people within urban areas. To tackle such challenges, transportation and mobility authorities and operators are trying to adopt innovative Big Data-driven Mobility- and Traffic-related solutions. Such solutions will help decision-making processes that aim to ease the load on an already overloaded transport infrastructure. The information collected from day-to-day mobility and traffic can help to mitigate some of such mobility challenges in urban areas. Road infrastructure and traffic management operators (RITMOs) face several limitations to effectively extract value from the exponentially growing volumes of mobility- and traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data (MobiTrafficBD) that are being acquired and gathered. Research about the topics of Big Data, Spatiotemporal Data and specially MobiTrafficBD is scattered, and existing literature does not offer a concrete, common methodological approach to setup, configure, deploy and use a complete Big Data-based framework to manage the lifecycle of mobility-related spatiotemporal data, mainly focused on geo-referenced time series (GRTS) and spatiotemporal events (ST Events), extract value from it and support decision-making processes of RITMOs. This doctoral thesis proposes a data-driven, prescriptive methodological approach towards the design, development and deployment of MobiTrafficBD Frameworks focused on GRTS and ST Events. Besides a thorough literature review on Spatiotemporal Data, Big Data and the merging of these two fields through MobiTraffiBD, the methodological approach comprises a set of general characteristics, technical requirements, logical components, data flows and technological infrastructure models, as well as guidelines and best practices that aim to guide researchers, practitioners and stakeholders, such as RITMOs, throughout the design, development and deployment phases of any MobiTrafficBD Framework. This work is intended to be a supporting methodological guide, based on widely used Reference Architectures and guidelines for Big Data, but enriched with inherent characteristics and concerns brought about by Big Spatiotemporal Data, such as in the case of GRTS and ST Events. The proposed methodology was evaluated and demonstrated in various real-world use cases that deployed MobiTrafficBD-based Data Management, Processing, Analytics and Visualisation methods, tools and technologies, under the umbrella of several research projects funded by the European Commission and the Portuguese Government.A população humana cresce a um ritmo sem precedentes, particularmente nas áreas urbanas. Este aumento, aliado ao robustecimento de uma classe média com maior poder económico, introduzem novos e complexos desafios na mobilidade de pessoas em áreas urbanas. Para abordar estes desafios, autoridades e operadores de transportes e mobilidade estão a adotar soluções inovadoras no domínio dos sistemas de Dados em Larga Escala nos domínios da Mobilidade e Tráfego. Estas soluções irão apoiar os processos de decisão com o intuito de libertar uma infraestrutura de estradas e transportes já sobrecarregada. A informação colecionada da mobilidade diária e da utilização da infraestrutura de estradas pode ajudar na mitigação de alguns dos desafios da mobilidade urbana. Os operadores de gestão de trânsito e de infraestruturas de estradas (em inglês, road infrastructure and traffic management operators — RITMOs) estão limitados no que toca a extrair valor de um sempre crescente volume de Dados Espaciotemporais em Larga Escala no domínio da Mobilidade e Tráfego (em inglês, Mobility- and Traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data —MobiTrafficBD) que estão a ser colecionados e recolhidos. Os trabalhos de investigação sobre os tópicos de Big Data, Dados Espaciotemporais e, especialmente, de MobiTrafficBD, estão dispersos, e a literatura existente não oferece uma metodologia comum e concreta para preparar, configurar, implementar e usar uma plataforma (framework) baseada em tecnologias Big Data para gerir o ciclo de vida de dados espaciotemporais em larga escala, com ênfase nas série temporais georreferenciadas (em inglês, geo-referenced time series — GRTS) e eventos espacio- temporais (em inglês, spatiotemporal events — ST Events), extrair valor destes dados e apoiar os RITMOs nos seus processos de decisão. Esta dissertação doutoral propõe uma metodologia prescritiva orientada a dados, para o design, desenvolvimento e implementação de plataformas de MobiTrafficBD, focadas em GRTS e ST Events. Além de uma revisão de literatura completa nas áreas de Dados Espaciotemporais, Big Data e na junção destas áreas através do conceito de MobiTrafficBD, a metodologia proposta contem um conjunto de características gerais, requisitos técnicos, componentes lógicos, fluxos de dados e modelos de infraestrutura tecnológica, bem como diretrizes e boas práticas para investigadores, profissionais e outras partes interessadas, como RITMOs, com o objetivo de guiá-los pelas fases de design, desenvolvimento e implementação de qualquer pla- taforma MobiTrafficBD. Este trabalho deve ser visto como um guia metodológico de suporte, baseado em Arqui- teturas de Referência e diretrizes amplamente utilizadas, mas enriquecido com as característi- cas e assuntos implícitos relacionados com Dados Espaciotemporais em Larga Escala, como no caso de GRTS e ST Events. A metodologia proposta foi avaliada e demonstrada em vários cenários reais no âmbito de projetos de investigação financiados pela Comissão Europeia e pelo Governo português, nos quais foram implementados métodos, ferramentas e tecnologias nas áreas de Gestão de Dados, Processamento de Dados e Ciência e Visualização de Dados em plataformas MobiTrafficB
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