Matrix Infinitely Divisible Series: Tail Inequalities and Applications in Optimization

In this paper, we study tail inequalities of the largest eigenvalue of a matrix infinitely divisible (i.d.) series, which is a finite sum of fixed matrices weighted by i.d. random variables. We obtain several types of tail inequalities, including Bennett-type and Bernstein-type inequalities. This allows us to further bound the expectation of the spectral norm of a matrix i.d. series. Moreover, by developing a new lower-bound function for $Q(s)=(s+1)\log(s+1)-s$ that appears in the Bennett-type inequality, we derive a tighter tail inequality of the largest eigenvalue of the matrix i.d. series than the Bernstein-type inequality when the matrix dimension is high. The resulting lower-bound function is of independent interest and can improve any Bennett-type concentration inequality that involves the function $Q(s)$. The class of i.d. probability distributions is large and includes Gaussian and Poisson distributions, among many others. Therefore, our results encompass the existing work \cite{tropp2012user} on matrix Gaussian series as a special case. Lastly, we show that the tail inequalities of a matrix i.d. series have applications in several optimization problems including the chance constrained optimization problem and the quadratic optimization problem with orthogonality constraints.Comment: Comments Welcome

Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Efficient Sample Approximation of Chance Constraints

This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost function in terms of expected values and higher moments of the states, and chance constraints that ensure probabilistic constraint satisfaction. The generalized polynomial chaos framework is used to propagate the time-invariant stochastic uncertainties through the nonlinear system dynamics, and to efficiently sample from the probability densities of the states to approximate the satisfaction probability of the chance constraints. To increase computational efficiency by avoiding excessive sampling, a statistical analysis is proposed to systematically determine a-priori the least conservative constraint tightening required at a given sample size to guarantee a desired feasibility probability of the sample-approximated chance constraint optimization problem. In addition, a method is presented for sample-based approximation of the analytic gradients of the chance constraints, which increases the optimization efficiency significantly. The proposed stochastic nonlinear model predictive control approach is applicable to a broad class of nonlinear systems with the sufficient condition that each term is analytic with respect to the states, and separable with respect to the inputs, states and parameters. The closed-loop performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using the Williams-Otto reactor with seven states, and ten uncertain parameters and initial conditions. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the approach for real-time stochastic model predictive control and its capability to systematically account for probabilistic uncertainties in contrast to a nonlinear model predictive control approaches.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Process Contro

Data-driven satisficing measure and ranking

We propose an computational framework for real-time risk assessment and prioritizing for random outcomes without prior information on probability distributions. The basic model is built based on satisficing measure (SM) which yields a single index for risk comparison. Since SM is a dual representation for a family of risk measures, we consider problems constrained by general convex risk measures and specifically by Conditional value-at-risk. Starting from offline optimization, we apply sample average approximation technique and argue the convergence rate and validation of optimal solutions. In online stochastic optimization case, we develop primal-dual stochastic approximation algorithms respectively for general risk constrained problems, and derive their regret bounds. For both offline and online cases, we illustrate the relationship between risk ranking accuracy with sample size (or iterations).Comment: 26 Pages, 6 Figure

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

Batch Policy Learning under Constraints

When learning policies for real-world domains, two important questions arise: (i) how to efficiently use pre-collected off-policy, non-optimal behavior data; and (ii) how to mediate among different competing objectives and constraints. We thus study the problem of batch policy learning under multiple constraints, and offer a systematic solution. We first propose a flexible meta-algorithm that admits any batch reinforcement learning and online learning procedure as subroutines. We then present a specific algorithmic instantiation and provide performance guarantees for the main objective and all constraints. To certify constraint satisfaction, we propose a new and simple method for off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) and derive PAC-style bounds. Our algorithm achieves strong empirical results in different domains, including in a challenging problem of simulated car driving subject to multiple constraints such as lane keeping and smooth driving. We also show experimentally that our OPE method outperforms other popular OPE techniques on a standalone basis, especially in a high-dimensional setting