PAC-Bayesian Bound for the Conditional Value at Risk

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an alternate approach to regularization, and as a means for ensuring fairness. This paper presents a generalization bound for learning algorithms that minimize the CVaR of the empirical loss. The bound is of PAC-Bayesian type and is guaranteed to be small when the empirical CVaR is small. We achieve this by reducing the problem of estimating CVaR to that of merely estimating an expectation. This then enables us, as a by-product, to obtain concentration inequalities for CVaR even when the random variable in question is unbounded

Optimal Best-Arm Identification Methods for Tail-Risk Measures

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries as well as in highly reliable, safety-critical uncertain environments where often the underlying probability distributions are heavy-tailed. We use the multi-armed bandit best-arm identification framework and consider the problem of identifying the arm from amongst finitely many that has the smallest CVaR, VaR, or weighted sum of CVaR and mean. The latter captures the risk-return trade-off common in finance. Our main contribution is an optimal $\delta$-correct algorithm that acts on general arms, including heavy-tailed distributions, and matches the lower bound on the expected number of samples needed, asymptotically (as $\delta$ approaches $0$). The algorithm requires solving a non-convex optimization problem in the space of probability measures, that requires delicate analysis. En-route, we develop new non-asymptotic empirical likelihood-based concentration inequalities for tail-risk measures which are tighter than those for popular truncation-based empirical estimators.Comment: 55 pages, 4 figure

Can Feedback Traders Rock the Markets? A Logistic Tale of Persistence and Chaos

This paper introduces a nonlinear feedback trading model at high frequency. All price adjustment is endogenous, driven by asset return and volatility in the previous trading period. There is no stochastic uncertainty or asymmetric information. The dynamics of expected returns display stable or unstable behavior–including the possibility of turbulence and chaos–as a function of market liquidity (inverse price impact) and the concentration of investor beliefs, which is proportional to the intensity of positive feedback. The results highlight the complementary role of investor diversity and market liquidity in maintaining financial stability

Concentration of weakly dependent Banach-valued sums and applications to statistical learning methods

We obtain a Bernstein-type inequality for sums of Banach-valued random variables satisfying a weak dependence assumption of general type and under certain smoothness assumptions of the underlying Banach norm. We use this inequality in order to investigate in the asymptotical regime the error upper bounds for the broad family of spectral regularization methods for reproducing kernel decision rules, when trained on a sample coming from a $\tau-$mixing process.Comment: 39 page

Learning the dependence structure of rare events: a non-asymptotic study

Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the so-called stable tail dependence function (STDF). Learning this structure is the keystone of multivariate extremes. Although extensive studies have proved consistency and asymptotic normality for the empirical version of the STDF, non-asymptotic bounds are still missing. The main purpose of this paper is to fill this gap. Taking advantage of adapted VC-type concentration inequalities, upper bounds are derived with expected rate of convergence in O(k^-1/2). The concentration tools involved in this analysis rely on a more general study of maximal deviations in low probability regions, and thus directly apply to the classification of extreme data