Rare Event Simulation and Splitting for Discontinuous Random Variables

Multilevel Splitting methods, also called Sequential Monte-Carlo or \emph{Subset Simulation}, are widely used methods for estimating extreme probabilities of the form $P[S(\mathbf{U}) > q]$ where $S$ is a deterministic real-valued function and $\mathbf{U}$ can be a random finite- or infinite-dimensional vector. Very often, $X := S(\mathbf{U})$ is supposed to be a continuous random variable and a lot of theoretical results on the statistical behaviour of the estimator are now derived with this hypothesis. However, as soon as some threshold effect appears in $S$ and/or $\mathbf{U}$ is discrete or mixed discrete/continuous this assumption does not hold any more and the estimator is not consistent. In this paper, we study the impact of discontinuities in the \emph{cdf} of $X$ and present three unbiased \emph{corrected} estimators to handle them. These estimators do not require to know in advance if $X$ is actually discontinuous or not and become all equal if $X$ is continuous. Especially, one of them has the same statistical properties in any case. Efficiency is shown on a 2-D diffusive process as well as on the \emph{Boolean SATisfiability problem} (SAT).Comment: 16 pages (12 + Appendix 4 pages), 6 figure

Generalized structured additive regression based on Bayesian P-splines

Generalized additive models (GAM) for modelling nonlinear effects of continuous covariates are now well established tools for the applied statistician. In this paper we develop Bayesian GAM's and extensions to generalized structured additive regression based on one or two dimensional P-splines as the main building block. The approach extends previous work by Lang und Brezger (2003) for Gaussian responses. Inference relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques, and is either based on iteratively weighted least squares (IWLS) proposals or on latent utility representations of (multi)categorical regression models. Our approach covers the most common univariate response distributions, e.g. the Binomial, Poisson or Gamma distribution, as well as multicategorical responses. For the first time, we present Bayesian semiparametric inference for the widely used multinomial logit models. As we will demonstrate through two applications on the forest health status of trees and a space-time analysis of health insurance data, the approach allows realistic modelling of complex problems. We consider the enormous flexibility and extendability of our approach as a main advantage of Bayesian inference based on MCMC techniques compared to more traditional approaches. Software for the methodology presented in the paper is provided within the public domain package BayesX

Random Weighting, Asymptotic Counting, and Inverse Isoperimetry

For a family X of k-subsets of the set 1,...,n, let |X| be the cardinality of X and let Gamma(X,mu) be the expected maximum weight of a subset from X when the weights of 1,...,n are chosen independently at random from a symmetric probability distribution mu on R. We consider the inverse isoperimetric problem of finding mu for which Gamma(X,mu) gives the best estimate of ln|X|. We prove that the optimal choice of mu is the logistic distribution, in which case Gamma(X,mu) provides an asymptotically tight estimate of ln|X| as k^{-1}ln|X| grows. Since in many important cases Gamma(X,mu) can be easily computed, we obtain computationally efficient approximation algorithms for a variety of counting problems. Given mu, we describe families X of a given cardinality with the minimum value of Gamma(X,mu), thus extending and sharpening various isoperimetric inequalities in the Boolean cube.Comment: The revision contains a new isoperimetric theorem, some other improvements and extensions; 29 pages, 1 figur