Advanced Data Analytics Methodologies for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series Vehicle Operating Data

Early detection of faults in the vehicle operating systems is a research domain of high significance to sustain full control of the systems since anomalous behaviors usually result in performance loss for a long time before detecting them as critical failures. In other words, operating systems exhibit degradation when failure begins to occur. Indeed, multiple presences of the failures in the system performance are not only anomalous behavior signals but also show that taking maintenance actions to keep the system performance is vital. Maintaining the systems in the nominal performance for the lifetime with the lowest maintenance cost is extremely challenging and it is important to be aware of imminent failure before it arises and implement the best countermeasures to avoid extra losses. In this context, the timely anomaly detection of the performance of the operating system is worthy of investigation. Early detection of imminent anomalous behaviors of the operating system is difficult without appropriate modeling, prediction, and analysis of the time series records of the system. Data based technologies have prepared a great foundation to develop advanced methods for modeling and prediction of time series data streams. In this research, we propose novel methodologies to predict the patterns of multivariate time series operational data of the vehicle and recognize the second-wise unhealthy states. These approaches help with the early detection of abnormalities in the behavior of the vehicle based on multiple data channels whose second-wise records for different functional working groups in the operating systems of the vehicle. Furthermore, a real case study data set is used to validate the accuracy of the proposed prediction and anomaly detection methodologies

Methods for Using Manpower to Assess USAF Strategic Risk

With limited personnel resource funding availability, senior US Air Force (USAF) decision makers struggle to base enterprise resource allocation from rigorous analytical traceability. There are over 240 career fields in the USAF spanning 12 enterprises. Each enterprise develops annual risk assessments by distinctive core capabilities. A core capability (e.g. Research and Development) is an enabling function necessary for the USAF to perform its mission as part of the Department of Defense (DOD). Assessing risk at the core capability is a good start to assessing risk, but is still not comprehensiveness enough. One of the twelve enterprises has linked its task structure to Program Element Codes (PECs). Planners and programmers use amount of funding per PEC to assess tasks needed to address a desired capability. For the first time, a linkage between core functions, core capabilities, PECs, tasks and manpower has been developed. We now can provide an objective nomenclatured way to compute personnel risk. All resources planned are not programmed (i.e. resource allocated and budgeted); the delta between the two translate into capability gaps and a level of strategic risk. A USAF career field risk demonstration is performed using normal, sigmoid and Euclidean-norm functions. Understanding potential personnel shortfalls at the career field level should better inform core capability analysis, and thus increase credibility and defensibility of strategic risk assessment

Mantenimiento Predictivo: Historia, una guía de implementación y enfoques actuales

Debido al aumento del número de sensores utilizados en las plantas de producción, la posibilidad de obtener datos de estas ha incrementado considerablemente. Esto conlleva la posibilidad de detectar fallos antes de que estos ocurran y futuras paradas que afecten a las plantas de producción. Las tecnologías de mantenimiento predictivo permiten predecir eventos futuros, convirtiéndolas en herramientas para afrontar los retos que surjan en los mercados competitivos. Esta tesis está dividida en cinco partes. La primera, describe el mantenimiento a lo largo de la historia, mientras que la segunda está enfocada en el mantenimiento predictivo. El tercer punto es una guía de implementación de un programa de mantenimiento predictivo para cualquier organización interesada en el tema. Finalmente, las dos últimas partes hacen referencia a los enfoques más comunes en inteligencia artificial donde se explican técnicas importantes como “Artificial Neural Networks” y “Machine Learning”, describiendo algunos ejemplos donde fueron usadas para realizar mantenimiento predictivo.Departamento de Organización de Empresas y Comercialización e Investigación de MercadosHochschule Albstadt-SigmaringenGrado en Ingeniería en Organización Industria

Modelling Uncertainty in Black-box Classification Systems

[eng] Currently, thanks to the Big Data boom, the excellent results obtained by deep learning models and the strong digital transformation experienced over the last years, many companies have decided to incorporate machine learning models into their systems. Some companies have detected this opportunity and are making a portfolio of artificial intelligence services available to third parties in the form of application programming interfaces (APIs). Subsequently, developers include calls to these APIs to incorporate AI functionalities in their products. Although it is an option that saves time and resources, it is true that, in most cases, these APIs are displayed in the form of blackboxes, the details of which are unknown to their clients. The complexity of such products typically leads to a lack of control and knowledge of the internal components, which, in turn, can drive to potential uncontrolled risks. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods capable of evaluating the performance of these black-boxes when applied to a specific application. In this work, we present a robust uncertainty-based method for evaluating the performance of both probabilistic and categorical classification black-box models, in particular APIs, that enriches the predictions obtained with an uncertainty score. This uncertainty score enables the detection of inputs with very confident but erroneous predictions while protecting against out of distribution data points when deploying the model in a productive setting. In the first part of the thesis, we develop a thorough revision of the concept of uncertainty, focusing on the uncertainty of classification systems. We review the existingrelated literature, describing the different approaches for modelling this uncertainty, its application to different use cases and some of its desirable properties. Next, we introduce the proposed method for modelling uncertainty in black-box settings. Moreover, in the last chapters of the thesis, we showcase the method applied to different domains, including NLP and computer vision problems. Finally, we include two reallife applications of the method: classification of overqualification in job descriptions and readability assessment of texts.[spa] La tesis propone un método para el cálculo de la incertidumbre asociada a las predicciones de APIs o librerías externas de sistemas de clasificación