Estimation of bullwhip effect in supply chain management

A supply chain consists of all parties involved, directly or indirectly, in fulfilling a customer request or demand. The supply chain not only includes the manufacturers and suppliers,but also transporters, warehouses, retailers, and finally the end consumers themselves. The objective of every supply chain is to maximize the overall value generated. The value a supply chain generates is the difference between what the final product is worth to the customer and the effort the supply chain expends in filling the customer’s request. An important phenomenon in Supply Chain Management is known as bullwhip effect (BWE), which suggests that the demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. Bullwhip effect is an undesirable phenomenon in the supply chain which exacerbates the supply chain performance. The impact of BWE is to increase manufacturing cost, inventory cost, replenishment lead time, transportation cost, labor cost for shipping and receiving, cost for building surplus capacity and holding surplus inventories, and to decrease level of product availability and relationship across the supply chain. Various factors can cause bullwhip effect, one of which is customer demand forecasting. In this study, impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect and mean square error has been considered. The preceding study highlights the effect of forecasting technique, order processing cost and demand pattern on BWE and mean square error (MSE). The BWE and MSE have been evaluated using MATLAB coding. The results were analyzed using ANOVA and Fuzzy Logic,and finally the optimal parameters for minimum values of BWE and MSE have been determined

A patient agent controlled customized blockchain based framework for internet of things

Although Blockchain implementations have emerged as revolutionary technologies for various industrial applications including cryptocurrencies, they have not been widely deployed to store data streaming from sensors to remote servers in architectures known as Internet of Things. New Blockchain for the Internet of Things models promise secure solutions for eHealth, smart cities, and other applications. These models pave the way for continuous monitoring of patient’s physiological signs with wearable sensors to augment traditional medical practice without recourse to storing data with a trusted authority. However, existing Blockchain algorithms cannot accommodate the huge volumes, security, and privacy requirements of health data. In this thesis, our first contribution is an End-to-End secure eHealth architecture that introduces an intelligent Patient Centric Agent. The Patient Centric Agent executing on dedicated hardware manages the storage and access of streams of sensors generated health data, into a customized Blockchain and other less secure repositories. As IoT devices cannot host Blockchain technology due to their limited memory, power, and computational resources, the Patient Centric Agent coordinates and communicates with a private customized Blockchain on behalf of the wearable devices. While the adoption of a Patient Centric Agent offers solutions for addressing continuous monitoring of patients’ health, dealing with storage, data privacy and network security issues, the architecture is vulnerable to Denial of Services(DoS) and single point of failure attacks. To address this issue, we advance a second contribution; a decentralised eHealth system in which the Patient Centric Agent is replicated at three levels: Sensing Layer, NEAR Processing Layer and FAR Processing Layer. The functionalities of the Patient Centric Agent are customized to manage the tasks of the three levels. Simulations confirm protection of the architecture against DoS attacks. Few patients require all their health data to be stored in Blockchain repositories but instead need to select an appropriate storage medium for each chunk of data by matching their personal needs and preferences with features of candidate storage mediums. Motivated by this context, we advance third contribution; a recommendation model for health data storage that can accommodate patient preferences and make storage decisions rapidly, in real-time, even with streamed data. The mapping between health data features and characteristics of each repository is learned using machine learning. The Blockchain’s capacity to make transactions and store records without central oversight enables its application for IoT networks outside health such as underwater IoT networks where the unattended nature of the nodes threatens their security and privacy. However, underwater IoT differs from ground IoT as acoustics signals are the communication media leading to high propagation delays, high error rates exacerbated by turbulent water currents. Our fourth contribution is a customized Blockchain leveraged framework with the model of Patient-Centric Agent renamed as Smart Agent for securely monitoring underwater IoT. Finally, the smart Agent has been investigated in developing an IoT smart home or cities monitoring framework. The key algorithms underpinning to each contribution have been implemented and analysed using simulators.Doctor of Philosoph

Paradoxes of Interactivity

Current findings from anthropology, genetics, prehistory, cognitive and neuroscience indicate that human nature is grounded in a co-evolution of tool use, symbolic communication, social interaction and cultural transmission. Digital information technology has recently entered as a new tool in this co-evolution, and will probably have the strongest impact on shaping the human mind in the near future. A common effort from the humanities, the sciences, art and technology is necessary to understand this ongoing co- evolutionary process. Interactivity is a key for understanding the new relationships formed by humans with social robots as well as interactive environments and wearables underlying this process. Of special importance for understanding interactivity are human-computer and human-robot interaction, as well as media theory and New Media Art. »Paradoxes of Interactivity« brings together reflections on »interactivity« from different theoretical perspectives, the interplay of science and art, and recent technological developments for artistic applications, especially in the realm of sound

Paradoxes of interactivity: perspectives for media theory, human-computer interaction, and artistic investigations

Current findings from anthropology, genetics, prehistory, cognitive and neuroscience indicate that human nature is grounded in a co-evolution of tool use, symbolic communication, social interaction and cultural transmission. Digital information technology has recently entered as a new tool in this co-evolution, and will probably have the strongest impact on shaping the human mind in the near future. A common effort from the humanities, the sciences, art and technology is necessary to understand this ongoing co- evolutionary process. Interactivity is a key for understanding the new relationships formed by humans with social robots as well as interactive environments and wearables underlying this process. Of special importance for understanding interactivity are human-computer and human-robot interaction, as well as media theory and New Media Art. "Paradoxes of Interactivity" brings together reflections on "interactivity" from different theoretical perspectives, the interplay of science and art, and recent technological developments for artistic applications, especially in the realm of sound

Managing Intellectual Property to Foster Agricultural Development

Over the past decades, consideration of IPRs has become increasingly important in many areas of agricultural development, including foreign direct investment, technology transfer, trade, investment in innovation, access to genetic resources, and the protection of traditional knowledge. The widening role of IPRs in governing the ownership of—and access to—innovation, information, and knowledge makes them particularly critical in ensuring that developing countries benefit from the introduction of new technologies that could radically alter the welfare of the poor. Failing to improve IPR policies and practices to support the needs of developing countries will eliminate significant development opportunities. The discussion in this note moves away from policy prescriptions to focus on investments to improve how IPRs are used in practice in agricultural development. These investments must be seen as complementary to other investments in agricultural development. IPRs are woven into the context of innovation and R&D. They can enable entrepreneurship and allow the leveraging of private resources for resolving the problems of poverty. Conversely, IPRs issues can delay important scientific advancements, deter investment in products for the poor, and impose crippling transaction costs on organizations if the wrong tools are used or tools are badly applied. The central benefit of pursuing the investments outlined in this note is to build into the system a more robust capacity for strategic and flexible use of IPRs tailored to development goals

Efecto de la competencia mayorista en las cadenas de abastecimiento: análisis experimental con múltiples decisores

Uno de los problemas más frecuentes y costosos en las cadenas de suministro es el Efecto Látigo, que capta parcialmente la oscilación de órdenes en los eslabones de la cadena de suministro y cómo se amplifican hacia arriba de la cadena. La literatura muestra que aunque el comportamiento agregado en las cadenas de suministro está bien descrito, todavía hay preguntas asociadas la heterogeneidad de los actores, cómo se comportan en un ambiente de competencia y la posible existencia de múltiples reglas de decisión. En este estudio se analiza el efecto látigo cuando la competencia se incluye al nivel mayorista considerando heterogeneidad en las reglas de decisión. Para esto se construye un modelo hibrido que combina las metodologías de simulación basada en agentes y dinámica de sistemas para mostrar cómo los clientes mayoristas inflan los pedidos a su único proveedor de un producto único, limitado y escaso; llevando al proveedor a invertir en capacidad para cumplir con los pedidos. Dada la dificultad para conocer las reglas de decisión, en esta investigación también se presenta el diseño de un experimento piloto de laboratorio que permita estudiar cómo son las decisiones de las personas asumiendo el rol de clientes mayoristas realizando pedidos a sus proveedores, en una cadena de abastecimiento caracterizada por tener un único proveedor de un producto único e insustituible. Consistente con la literatura, nuestros resultados muestran que los clientes tienden a inflar sus pedidos cuando se enfrentan a productos agotados, competencia en el nivel y diferentes retardos en el sistema; a pesar de tener alta heterogeneidad de los decisores.Abstract: One of the most frequent and costly problems in supply chains is the Bullwhip Effect, which captures the oscillation of orders in the steps of the supply chain and how it was amplified up the chain. The literature shows that while aggregate behavior in supply chains is well described, there are still questions associated with the heterogeneity of actors, how they behave in a competitive environment, and the possible existence of multiple decision rules. In this study, the bullwhip effect is analyzed when competition is included at the wholesale level considering heterogeneity in decision rules. To achieve this, it is built a hybrid model that combines the methodologies of agent-based simulation and system dynamics to show how wholesale customers inflate orders to their sole supplier of a single, limited, and scarce product; taking the supplier to invest in capacity to fulfill orders. Given the difficulty of the rules of the decision, this research also presents the design of a laboratory pilot experiment that allows to study how the decisions of the people are assuming the role of the wholesale clients making orders to the suppliers, in a chain Of Supply characterized by having a single supplier of a unique and irreplaceable product. Given the difficulty in knowing the rules of the decision, this research also presents the design of a laboratory pilot experiment that allows to study how the decisions of the people are assuming the role of the wholesale clients making orders to the suppliers, in a Chain of Supply characterized by having a single supplier of a unique and irreplaceable product Our results show that customers tend to inflate their orders when faced with exhausted products, competition in the level, and different delays in the system despite the high heterogeneity of decision makersMaestrí

Bioeconomy

This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book defines the new field of "Bioeconomy" as the sustainable and innovative use of biomass and biological knowledge to provide food, feed, industrial products, bioenergy and ecological services. The chapters highlight the importance of bioeconomy-related concepts in public, scientific, and political discourse. Using an interdisciplinary approach, the authors outline the dimensions of the bioeconomy as a means of achieving sustainability. The authors are ideally situated to elaborate on the diverse aspects of the bioeconomy. They have acquired in-depth experience of interdisciplinary research through the university’s focus on “Bioeconomy”, its contribution to the Bioeconomy Research Program of the federal state of Baden-Württemberg, and its participation in the German Bioeconomy Council. With the number of bioeconomy-related projects at European universities rising, this book will provide graduate students and researchers with background information on the bioeconomy. It will familiarize scientific readers with bioeconomy-related terms and give scientific background for economists, agronomists and natural scientists alike. ; Broadens your understanding of a sustainable economy Simplifies multidisciplinary approaches for the transition to a Bioeconomy Combining principles from agriculture, biotechnology and macroeconomic

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen

Bioeconomy: Shaping the Transition to a Sustainable, Biobased Economy

Sustainability; Biomass Management; Resource Management; Agriculture; Macroeconomic