The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis

Technical analysis involves the prediction of future exchange rate (or other assetprice) movements from an inductive analysis of past movements. A reading of the large literature on this topic allows us to establish a set of stylised facts, including the facts that technical analysis is an important and widely used method of analysis in the foreign exchange market and that applying certain technical trading rules over a sustained period may lead to significant positive excess returns. We then analyze four arguments that have been put forward to explain the continuing widespread use of technical analysis and its apparent profitability: that the foreign exchange market may be characterised by not-fully-rational behaviour; that technical analysis may exploit the influence of central bank interventions; that technical analysis may be an efficient form of information processing ; and finally that it may provide information on nonfundamental influences on foreign exchange movements. Although all of these positions may be relevant to some degree, neither non-rationality nor official interventions seem to be widespread and persistent enough to explain the obstinate passion of foreign exchange professionals for technical analysis.foreign exchange market ; technical analysis ; market microstructure

The obstinate passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: technical analysis

Technical analysis involves the prediction of future exchange rate (or other assetprice) movements from an inductive analysis of past movements. A reading of the large literature on this topic allows us to establish a set of stylised facts, including the facts that technical analysis is an important and widely used method of analysis in the foreign exchange market and that applying certain technical trading rules over a sustained period may lead to significant positive excess returns. We then analyze four arguments that have been put forward to explain the continuing widespread use of technical analysis and its apparent profitability: that the foreign exchange market may be characterised by not-fully-rational behaviour; that technical analysis may exploit the influence of central bank interventions; that technical analysis may be an efficient form of information processing ; and finally that it may provide information on nonfundamental influences on foreign exchange movements. Although all of these positions may be relevant to some degree, neither non-rationality nor official interventions seem to be widespread and persistent enough to explain the obstinate passion of foreign exchange professionals for technical analysis

Convolution on neural networks for high-frequency trend prediction of cryptocurrency exchange rates using technical indicators

This study explores the suitability of neural networks with a convolutional component as an alternative to traditional multilayer perceptrons in the domain of trend classification of cryptocurrency exchange rates using technical analysis in high frequencies. The experimental work compares the performance of four different network architectures -convolutional neural network, hybrid CNN-LSTM network, multilayer perceptron and radial basis function neural network- to predict whether six popular cryptocurrencies -Bitcoin, Dash, Ether, Litecoin, Monero and Ripple- will increase their value vs. USD in the next minute. The results, based on 18 technical indicators derived from the exchange rates at a one-minute resolution over one year, suggest that all series were predictable to a certain extent using the technical indicators. Convolutional LSTM neural networks outperformed all the rest significantly, while CNN neural networks were also able to provide good results specially in the Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin cryptocurrencies.We would also like to acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities under grant PGC2018-096849-B-I00 (MCFin

Le trading algorithmique

The algorithmic trading comes from digitalisation of the processing of trading assets on financial markets. Since 1980 the computerization of the stock market offers real time processing of financial information. This technological revolution has offered processes and mathematic methods to identify best return on transactions. Current research relates to autonomous transaction systems programmed in certain periods and some algorithms. This offers return opportunities where traders can not intervene. There are about thirty algorithms to assist the traders, the best known are the VWAP, the TWAP, TVOL. The algorithms offer the latest strategies and decision-making are the subject of much research. These advances in modeling decision-making autonomous agent can envisage a rich future for these technologies, the players already in use for more than 30% of their trading.marché électronique;algorithme de trading;agent autonome;VWAP;TVOL;Arbitrage:marché financier; passage d'ordre automatisés

Evaluation of the Profitability of Technical Analysis for Asian Currencies in the Forex Spot Market for Short-Term Trading

Technical analysis has garnered an unprecedented amount of interest among short-term traders in the Forex spot market over the past couple of decades. The main purpose of this study is to examine the profitability of technical analysis as applied to three active Asian currencies in the Forex spot market for short-term trading. This study also tests the relationship between various related parameters of currency trading such as Maximum Drawdown, Time in Position, Dealt Lots, Trading Charges and profitability. It covers ten currency pairs, including ten foreign exchange rates of three active Asian currencies in the Forex spot market (the Japanese Yen, Singaporean dollar, and Hong Kong dollar), five time frames involving Intra-day timeframes, and ten technical indicators (5 leading and 5 lagging). The study covers a period of three months running from April 10, 2012 through July 10, 2012. The results indicate that technical analysis is profitable for Asian currencies as attested by the fact that all the currency pairs, time frames and indicators have yielded trading profits in the Forex spot market

Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market

This article introduces the subject of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market, with emphasis on its importance for questions of market efficiency. Technicians view their craft, the study of price patterns, as exploiting traders’ psychological regularities. The literature on technical analysis has established that simple technical trading rules on dollar exchange rates provided 15 years of positive, risk-adjusted returns during the 1970s and 80s before those returns were extinguished. More recently, more complex and less studied rules have produced more modest returns for a similar length of time. Conventional explanations that rely on risk adjustment and/or central bank intervention are not plausible justifications for the observed excess returns from following simple technical trading rules. Psychological biases, however, could contribute to the profitability of these rules. We view the observed pattern of excess returns to technical trading rules as being consistent with an adaptive markets view of the world.Foreign exchange rates