28,241 research outputs found
On the use of a Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling (MLHS) approach in the estimation of a Mixed Logit model for vehicle choice
Quasi-random number sequences have been used extensively for many years in the simulation of integrals that do not have a closed-form expression, such as Mixed Logit and Multinomial Probit choice probabilities. Halton sequences are one example of such quasi-random number sequences, and various types of Halton sequences, including standard, scrambled, and shuffled versions, have been proposed and tested in the context of travel demand modeling. In this paper, we propose an alternative to Halton sequences, based on an adapted version of Latin Hypercube Sampling. These alternative sequences, like scrambled and shuffled Halton sequences, avoid the undesirable correlation patterns that arise in standard Halton sequences. However, they are easier to create than scrambled or shuffled Halton sequences. They also provide more uniform coverage in each dimension than any of the Halton sequences. A detailed analysis, using a 16-dimensional Mixed Logit model for choice between alternative-fuelled vehicles in California, was conducted to compare the performance of the different types of draws. The analysis shows that, in this application, the Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling (MLHS) outperforms each type of Halton sequence. This greater accuracy combined with the greater simplicity make the MLHS method an appealing approach for simulation of travel demand models and simulation-based models in general
Multidimensional Quasi-Monte Carlo Malliavin Greeks
We investigate the use of Malliavin calculus in order to calculate the Greeks
of multidimensional complex path-dependent options by simulation. For this
purpose, we extend the formulas employed by Montero and Kohatsu-Higa to the
multidimensional case. The multidimensional setting shows the convenience of
the Malliavin Calculus approach over different techniques that have been
previously proposed. Indeed, these techniques may be computationally expensive
and do not provide flexibility for variance reduction. In contrast, the
Malliavin approach exhibits a higher flexibility by providing a class of
functions that return the same expected value (the Greek) with different
accuracies. This versatility for variance reduction is not possible without the
use of the generalized integral by part formula of Malliavin Calculus. In the
multidimensional context, we find convenient formulas that permit to improve
the localization technique, introduced in Fourni\'e et al and reduce both the
computational cost and the variance. Moreover, we show that the parameters
employed for variance reduction can be obtained \textit{on the flight} in the
simulation. We illustrate the efficiency of the proposed procedures, coupled
with the enhanced version of Quasi-Monte Carlo simulations as discussed in
Sabino, for the numerical estimation of the Deltas of call, digital Asian-style
and Exotic basket options with a fixed and a floating strike price in a
multidimensional Black-Scholes market.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figure
Inverse Uncertainty Quantification using the Modular Bayesian Approach based on Gaussian Process, Part 2: Application to TRACE
Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the
uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between
code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse
UQ using an improved modular Bayesian approach based on Gaussian Process (GP)
for TRACE physical model parameters using the BWR Full-size Fine-Mesh Bundle
Tests (BFBT) benchmark steady-state void fraction data. The model discrepancy
is described with a GP emulator. Numerical tests have demonstrated that such
treatment of model discrepancy can avoid over-fitting. Furthermore, we
constructed a fast-running and accurate GP emulator to replace TRACE full model
during Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. The computational cost was
demonstrated to be reduced by several orders of magnitude.
A sequential approach was also developed for efficient test source allocation
(TSA) for inverse UQ and validation. This sequential TSA methodology first
selects experimental tests for validation that has a full coverage of the test
domain to avoid extrapolation of model discrepancy term when evaluated at input
setting of tests for inverse UQ. Then it selects tests that tend to reside in
the unfilled zones of the test domain for inverse UQ, so that one can extract
the most information for posterior probability distributions of calibration
parameters using only a relatively small number of tests. This research
addresses the "lack of input uncertainty information" issue for TRACE physical
input parameters, which was usually ignored or described using expert opinion
or user self-assessment in previous work. The resulting posterior probability
distributions of TRACE parameters can be used in future uncertainty,
sensitivity and validation studies of TRACE code for nuclear reactor system
design and safety analysis
Intelligent sampling for the measurement of structured surfaces
Uniform sampling in metrology has known drawbacks such as coherent spectral aliasing and a lack of efficiency in terms of measuring time and data storage. The requirement for intelligent sampling strategies has been outlined over recent years, particularly where the measurement of structured surfaces is concerned. Most of the present research on intelligent sampling has focused on dimensional metrology using coordinate-measuring machines with little reported on the area of surface metrology. In the research reported here, potential intelligent sampling strategies for surface topography measurement of structured surfaces are investigated by using numerical simulation and experimental verification. The methods include the jittered uniform method, low-discrepancy pattern sampling and several adaptive methods which originate from computer graphics, coordinate metrology and previous research by the authors. By combining the use of advanced reconstruction methods and feature-based characterization techniques, the measurement performance of the sampling methods is studied using case studies. The advantages, stability and feasibility of these techniques for practical measurements are discussed
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