On the Computability of Solomonoff Induction and Knowledge-Seeking

Solomonoff induction is held as a gold standard for learning, but it is known to be incomputable. We quantify its incomputability by placing various flavors of Solomonoff's prior M in the arithmetical hierarchy. We also derive computability bounds for knowledge-seeking agents, and give a limit-computable weakly asymptotically optimal reinforcement learning agent.Comment: ALT 201

Bad Universal Priors and Notions of Optimality

A big open question of algorithmic information theory is the choice of the universal Turing machine (UTM). For Kolmogorov complexity and Solomonoff induction we have invariance theorems: the choice of the UTM changes bounds only by a constant. For the universally intelligent agent AIXI (Hutter, 2005) no invariance theorem is known. Our results are entirely negative: we discuss cases in which unlucky or adversarial choices of the UTM cause AIXI to misbehave drastically. We show that Legg-Hutter intelligence and thus balanced Pareto optimality is entirely subjective, and that every policy is Pareto optimal in the class of all computable environments. This undermines all existing optimality properties for AIXI. While it may still serve as a gold standard for AI, our results imply that AIXI is a relative theory, dependent on the choice of the UTM.Comment: COLT 201

Computable lower bounds for deterministic parameter estimation

This paper is primarily tutorial in nature and presents a simple approach(norm minimization under linear constraints) for deriving computable lower bounds on the MSE of deterministic parameter estimators with a clear interpretation of the bounds. We also address the issue of lower bounds tightness in comparison with the MSE of ML estimators and their ability to predict the SNR threshold region. Last, as many practical estimation problems must be regarded as joint detection-estimation problems, we remind that the estimation performance must be conditional on detection performance, leading to the open problem of the fundamental limits of the joint detectionestimation performance

POWERPLAY: Training an Increasingly General Problem Solver by Continually Searching for the Simplest Still Unsolvable Problem

Most of computer science focuses on automatically solving given computational problems. I focus on automatically inventing or discovering problems in a way inspired by the playful behavior of animals and humans, to train a more and more general problem solver from scratch in an unsupervised fashion. Consider the infinite set of all computable descriptions of tasks with possibly computable solutions. The novel algorithmic framework POWERPLAY (2011) continually searches the space of possible pairs of new tasks and modifications of the current problem solver, until it finds a more powerful problem solver that provably solves all previously learned tasks plus the new one, while the unmodified predecessor does not. Wow-effects are achieved by continually making previously learned skills more efficient such that they require less time and space. New skills may (partially) re-use previously learned skills. POWERPLAY's search orders candidate pairs of tasks and solver modifications by their conditional computational (time & space) complexity, given the stored experience so far. The new task and its corresponding task-solving skill are those first found and validated. The computational costs of validating new tasks need not grow with task repertoire size. POWERPLAY's ongoing search for novelty keeps breaking the generalization abilities of its present solver. This is related to Goedel's sequence of increasingly powerful formal theories based on adding formerly unprovable statements to the axioms without affecting previously provable theorems. The continually increasing repertoire of problem solving procedures can be exploited by a parallel search for solutions to additional externally posed tasks. POWERPLAY may be viewed as a greedy but practical implementation of basic principles of creativity. A first experimental analysis can be found in separate papers [53,54].Comment: 21 pages, additional connections to previous work, references to first experiments with POWERPLA

Towards a Universal Theory of Artificial Intelligence based on Algorithmic Probability and Sequential Decision Theory

Decision theory formally solves the problem of rational agents in uncertain worlds if the true environmental probability distribution is known. Solomonoff's theory of universal induction formally solves the problem of sequence prediction for unknown distribution. We unify both theories and give strong arguments that the resulting universal AIXI model behaves optimal in any computable environment. The major drawback of the AIXI model is that it is uncomputable. To overcome this problem, we construct a modified algorithm AIXI^tl, which is still superior to any other time t and space l bounded agent. The computation time of AIXI^tl is of the order t x 2^l.Comment: 8 two-column pages, latex2e, 1 figure, submitted to ijca

Free Lunch for Optimisation under the Universal Distribution

Function optimisation is a major challenge in computer science. The No Free Lunch theorems state that if all functions with the same histogram are assumed to be equally probable then no algorithm outperforms any other in expectation. We argue against the uniform assumption and suggest a universal prior exists for which there is a free lunch, but where no particular class of functions is favoured over another. We also prove upper and lower bounds on the size of the free lunch

Coding-theorem Like Behaviour and Emergence of the Universal Distribution from Resource-bounded Algorithmic Probability

Previously referred to as `miraculous' in the scientific literature because of its powerful properties and its wide application as optimal solution to the problem of induction/inference, (approximations to) Algorithmic Probability (AP) and the associated Universal Distribution are (or should be) of the greatest importance in science. Here we investigate the emergence, the rates of emergence and convergence, and the Coding-theorem like behaviour of AP in Turing-subuniversal models of computation. We investigate empirical distributions of computing models in the Chomsky hierarchy. We introduce measures of algorithmic probability and algorithmic complexity based upon resource-bounded computation, in contrast to previously thoroughly investigated distributions produced from the output distribution of Turing machines. This approach allows for numerical approximations to algorithmic (Kolmogorov-Chaitin) complexity-based estimations at each of the levels of a computational hierarchy. We demonstrate that all these estimations are correlated in rank and that they converge both in rank and values as a function of computational power, despite fundamental differences between computational models. In the context of natural processes that operate below the Turing universal level because of finite resources and physical degradation, the investigation of natural biases stemming from algorithmic rules may shed light on the distribution of outcomes. We show that up to 60\% of the simplicity/complexity bias in distributions produced even by the weakest of the computational models can be accounted for by Algorithmic Probability in its approximation to the Universal Distribution.Comment: 27 pages main text, 39 pages including supplement. Online complexity calculator: http://complexitycalculator.com