Bayesian data assimilation to support informed decision-making in individualized chemotherapy

An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP-based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy-induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computational efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas

A temporal switch model for estimating transcriptional activity in gene expression

Motivation: The analysis and mechanistic modelling of time series gene expression data provided by techniques such as microarrays, NanoString, reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction and advanced sequencing are invaluable for developing an understanding of the variation in key biological processes. We address this by proposing the estimation of a flexible dynamic model, which decouples temporal synthesis and degradation of mRNA and, hence, allows for transcriptional activity to switch between different states. Results: The model is flexible enough to capture a variety of observed transcriptional dynamics, including oscillatory behaviour, in a way that is compatible with the demands imposed by the quality, time-resolution and quantity of the data. We show that the timing and number of switch events in transcriptional activity can be estimated alongside individual gene mRNA stability with the help of a Bayesian reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. To demonstrate the methodology, we focus on modelling the wild-type behaviour of a selection of 200 circadian genes of the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. The results support the idea that using a mechanistic model to identify transcriptional switch points is likely to strongly contribute to efforts in elucidating and understanding key biological processes, such as transcription and degradation

Non-Reversible Parallel Tempering: a Scalable Highly Parallel MCMC Scheme

Parallel tempering (PT) methods are a popular class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes used to sample complex high-dimensional probability distributions. They rely on a collection of $N$ interacting auxiliary chains targeting tempered versions of the target distribution to improve the exploration of the state-space. We provide here a new perspective on these highly parallel algorithms and their tuning by identifying and formalizing a sharp divide in the behaviour and performance of reversible versus non-reversible PT schemes. We show theoretically and empirically that a class of non-reversible PT methods dominates its reversible counterparts and identify distinct scaling limits for the non-reversible and reversible schemes, the former being a piecewise-deterministic Markov process and the latter a diffusion. These results are exploited to identify the optimal annealing schedule for non-reversible PT and to develop an iterative scheme approximating this schedule. We provide a wide range of numerical examples supporting our theoretical and methodological contributions. The proposed methodology is applicable to sample from a distribution $\pi$ with a density $L$ with respect to a reference distribution $\pi_0$ and compute the normalizing constant. A typical use case is when $\pi_0$ is a prior distribution, $L$ a likelihood function and $\pi$ the corresponding posterior.Comment: 74 pages, 30 figures. The method is implemented in an open source probabilistic programming available at https://github.com/UBC-Stat-ML/blangSD

The Reasonable Effectiveness of Randomness in Scalable and Integrative Gene Regulatory Network Inference and Beyond

Gene regulation is orchestrated by a vast number of molecules, including transcription factors and co-factors, chromatin regulators, as well as epigenetic mechanisms, and it has been shown that transcriptional misregulation, e.g., caused by mutations in regulatory sequences, is responsible for a plethora of diseases, including cancer, developmental or neurological disorders. As a consequence, decoding the architecture of gene regulatory networks has become one of the most important tasks in modern (computational) biology. However, to advance our understanding of the mechanisms involved in the transcriptional apparatus, we need scalable approaches that can deal with the increasing number of large-scale, high-resolution, biological datasets. In particular, such approaches need to be capable of efficiently integrating and exploiting the biological and technological heterogeneity of such datasets in order to best infer the underlying, highly dynamic regulatory networks, often in the absence of sufficient ground truth data for model training or testing. With respect to scalability, randomized approaches have proven to be a promising alternative to deterministic methods in computational biology. As an example, one of the top performing algorithms in a community challenge on gene regulatory network inference from transcriptomic data is based on a random forest regression model. In this concise survey, we aim to highlight how randomized methods may serve as a highly valuable tool, in particular, with increasing amounts of large-scale, biological experiments and datasets being collected. Given the complexity and interdisciplinary nature of the gene regulatory network inference problem, we hope our survey maybe helpful to both computational and biological scientists. It is our aim to provide a starting point for a dialogue about the concepts, benefits, and caveats of the toolbox of randomized methods, since unravelling the intricate web of highly dynamic, regulatory events will be one fundamental step in understanding the mechanisms of life and eventually developing efficient therapies to treat and cure diseases

HST Scattered Light Imaging and Modeling of the Edge-on Protoplanetary Disk ESO-Hα\alpha 569

We present new HST ACS observations and detailed models for a recently discovered edge-on protoplanetary disk around ESO H$\alpha$ 569 (a low-mass T Tauri star in the Cha I star forming region). Using radiative transfer models we probe the distribution of the grains and overall shape of the disk (inclination, scale height, dust mass, flaring exponent and surface/volume density exponent) by model fitting to multiwavelength (F606W and F814W) HST observations together with a literature compiled spectral energy distribution. A new tool set was developed for finding optimal fits of MCFOST radiative transfer models using the MCMC code emcee to efficiently explore the high dimensional parameter space. It is able to self-consistently and simultaneously fit a wide variety of observables in order to place constraints on the physical properties of a given disk, while also rigorously assessing the uncertainties in those derived properties. We confirm that ESO H$\alpha$ 569 is an optically thick nearly edge-on protoplanetary disk. The shape of the disk is well described by a flared disk model with an exponentially tapered outer edge, consistent with models previously advocated on theoretical grounds and supported by millimeter interferometry. The scattered light images and spectral energy distribution are best fit by an unusually high total disk mass (gas+dust assuming a ratio of 100:1) with a disk-to-star mass ratio of 0.16.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap