Composite Social Network for Predicting Mobile Apps Installation

We have carefully instrumented a large portion of the population living in a university graduate dormitory by giving participants Android smart phones running our sensing software. In this paper, we propose the novel problem of predicting mobile application (known as "apps") installation using social networks and explain its challenge. Modern smart phones, like the ones used in our study, are able to collect different social networks using built-in sensors. (e.g. Bluetooth proximity network, call log network, etc) While this information is accessible to app market makers such as the iPhone AppStore, it has not yet been studied how app market makers can use these information for marketing research and strategy development. We develop a simple computational model to better predict app installation by using a composite network computed from the different networks sensed by phones. Our model also captures individual variance and exogenous factors in app adoption. We show the importance of considering all these factors in predicting app installations, and we observe the surprising result that app installation is indeed predictable. We also show that our model achieves the best results compared with generic approaches: our results are four times better than random guess, and predict almost 45% of all apps users install with almost 45% precision (F1 score= 0.43)

Predicting mobile apps spread: An epidemiological random network modeling approach

[EN] The mobile applications business is a really big market, growing constantly. In app marketing, a key issue is to predict future app installations. The influence of the peers seems to be very relevant when downloading apps. Therefore, the study of the evolution of mobile apps spread may be approached using a proper network model that considers the influence of peers. Influence of peers and other social contagions have been successfully described using models of epidemiological type. Hence, in this paper we propose an epidemiological random network model with realistic parameters to predict the evolution of downloads of apps. With this model, we are able to predict the behavior of an app in the market in the short term looking at its evolution in the early days of its launch. The numerical results provided by the proposed network are compared with data from real apps. This comparison shows that predictions improve as the model is fed back. Marketing researchers and strategy business managers can benefit from the proposed model since it can be helpful to predict app behavior over the time anticipating the spread of an appAlegre-Sanahuja, J.; Cortés, J.; Villanueva Micó, RJ.; Santonja, F. (2017). Predicting mobile apps spread: An epidemiological random network modeling approach. Transactions of the Society for Computer Simulation. 94(2):123-130. https://doi.org/10.1177/0037549717712600S12313094

Reality-Mining with Smartphones: Detecting and Predicting Life Events based on App Installation Behavior

Life events are often described as major forces that are going to shape tomorrow\u27s consumer need, behavior and mood. Thus, the prediction of life events is highly relevant in marketing and sociology. In this paper, we propose a data-driven, real-time method to predict individual life events, using readily available data from smartphones. Our large-scale user study with more than 2000 users shows that our method is able to predict life events with 64.5% higher accuracy, 183.1% better precision and 88.0% higher specificity than a random model on average

The Lifecycles of Apps in a Social Ecosystem

Apps are emerging as an important form of on-line content, and they combine aspects of Web usage in interesting ways --- they exhibit a rich temporal structure of user adoption and long-term engagement, and they exist in a broader social ecosystem that helps drive these patterns of adoption and engagement. It has been difficult, however, to study apps in their natural setting since this requires a simultaneous analysis of a large set of popular apps and the underlying social network they inhabit. In this work we address this challenge through an analysis of the collection of apps on Facebook Login, developing a novel framework for analyzing both temporal and social properties. At the temporal level, we develop a retention model that represents a user's tendency to return to an app using a very small parameter set. At the social level, we organize the space of apps along two fundamental axes --- popularity and sociality --- and we show how a user's probability of adopting an app depends both on properties of the local network structure and on the match between the user's attributes, his or her friends' attributes, and the dominant attributes within the app's user population. We also develop models that show the importance of different feature sets with strong performance in predicting app success.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, International World Wide Web Conferenc

Enhancing Mobile App User Understanding and Marketing with Heterogeneous Crowdsourced Data: A Review

© 2013 IEEE. The mobile app market has been surging in recent years. It has some key differentiating characteristics which make it different from traditional markets. To enhance mobile app development and marketing, it is important to study the key research challenges such as app user profiling, usage pattern understanding, popularity prediction, requirement and feedback mining, and so on. This paper reviews CrowdApp, a research field that leverages heterogeneous crowdsourced data for mobile app user understanding and marketing. We first characterize the opportunities of the CrowdApp, and then present the key research challenges and state-of-the-art techniques to deal with these challenges. We further discuss the open issues and future trends of the CrowdApp. Finally, an evolvable app ecosystem architecture based on heterogeneous crowdsourced data is presented

Trends Prediction Using Social Diffusion Models

The importance of the ability of predict trends in social media has been growing rapidly in the past few years with the growing dominance of social media in our everyday's life. Whereas many works focus on the detection of anomalies in networks, there exist little theoretical work on the prediction of the likelihood of anomalous network pattern to globally spread and become "trends". In this work we present an analytic model the social diffusion dynamics of spreading network patterns. Our proposed method is based on information diffusion models, and is capable of predicting future trends based on the analysis of past social interactions between the community's members. We present an analytic lower bound for the probability that emerging trends would successful spread through the network. We demonstrate our model using two comprehensive social datasets - the "Friends and Family" experiment that was held in MIT for over a year, where the complete activity of 140 users was analyzed, and a financial dataset containing the complete activities of over 1.5 million members of the "eToro" social trading community.Comment: 6 Pages + Appendi

A Privacy Calculus Model for Personal Mobile Devices

Personal mobile devices (PMDs) initiated a multi-dimensional paradigmatic shift in personal computing and personal information collection fueled by the indispensability of the Internet and the increasing functionality of the devices. From 2005 to 2016, the perceived necessity of conducting transactions on the Internet moved from optional to indispensable. The context of these transactions changes from traditional desktop and laptop computers, to the inclusion of smartphones and tablets (PMDs). However, the traditional privacy calculus published by (Dinev and Hart 2006) was conceived before this technological and contextual change, and several core assumptions of that model must be re-examined and possibly adapted or changed to account for this shift. This paradigm shift impacts the decision process individuals use to disclose personal information using PMDs. By nature of their size, portability, and constant proximity to the user, PMDs collect, contain, and distribute unprecedented amounts of personal information. Even though the context within which people are sharing information has changed significantly, privacy calculus research applied to PMDs has not moved far from the seminal work by Dinev and Hart (2006). The traditional privacy calculus risk-benefit model is limited in the PMD context because users are unaware of how much personal information is being shared, how often it is shared, or to whom it is shared. Furthermore, the traditional model explains and predicts intent to disclose rather than actual disclosure. However, disclosure intentions are a poor predictor of actual information disclosure. Because of perceived indispensability of the information and the inability to assess potential risk, the deliberate comparison of risks to benefits prior to disclosure—a core assumption of the traditional privacy calculus—may not be the most effective basis of a model to predict and explain disclosure. The present research develops a Personal Mobile Device Privacy Calculus model designed to predict and explain disclosure behavior within the specific context of actual disclosure of personal information using PMDs