Complex event types for agent-based simulation

This thesis presents a novel formal modelling language, complex event types (CETs), to describe behaviours in agent-based simulations. CETs are able to describe behaviours at any computationally represented level of abstraction. Behaviours can be specified both in terms of the state transition rules of the agent-based model that generate them and in terms of the state transition structures themselves. Based on CETs, novel computational statistical methods are introduced which allow statistical dependencies between behaviours at different levels to be established. Different dependencies formalise different probabilistic causal relations and Complex Systems constructs such as ‘emergence’ and ‘autopoiesis’. Explicit links are also made between the different types of CET inter-dependency and the theoretical assumptions they represent. With the novel computational statistical methods, three categories of model can be validated and discovered: (i) inter-level models, which define probabilistic dependencies between behaviours at different levels; (ii) multi-level models, which define the set of simulations for which an inter-level model holds; (iii) inferred predictive models, which define latent relationships between behaviours at different levels. The CET modelling language and computational statistical methods are then applied to a novel agent-based model of Colonic Cancer to demonstrate their applicability to Complex Systems sciences such as Systems Biology. This proof of principle model provides a framework for further development of a detailed integrative model of the system, which can progressively incorporate biological data from different levels and scales as these become available

A survey of simulation techniques in commerce and defence

Despite the developments in Modelling and Simulation (M&S) tools and techniques over the past years, there has been a gap in the M&S research and practice in healthcare on developing a toolkit to assist the modellers and simulation practitioners with selecting an appropriate set of techniques. This study is a preliminary step towards this goal. This paper presents some results from a systematic literature survey on applications of M&S in the commerce and defence domains that could inspire some improvements in the healthcare. Interim results show that in the commercial sector Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) has been the most widely used technique with System Dynamics (SD) in second place. However in the defence sector, SD has gained relatively more attention. SD has been found quite useful for qualitative and soft factors analysis. From both the surveys it becomes clear that there is a growing trend towards using hybrid M&S approaches

Towards the Development of a Simulator for Investigating the Impact of People Management Practices on Retail Performance

Often models for understanding the impact of management practices on retail performance are developed under the assumption of stability, equilibrium and linearity, whereas retail operations are considered in reality to be dynamic, non-linear and complex. Alternatively, discrete event and agent-based modelling are approaches that allow the development of simulation models of heterogeneous non-equilibrium systems for testing out different scenarios. When developing simulation models one has to abstract and simplify from the real world, which means that one has to try and capture the 'essence' of the system required for developing a representation of the mechanisms that drive the progression in the real system. Simulation models can be developed at different levels of abstraction. To know the appropriate level of abstraction for a specific application is often more of an art than a science. We have developed a retail branch simulation model to investigate which level of model accuracy is required for such a model to obtain meaningful results for practitioners.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables, Journal of Simulation 201

Multi-level agent-based modeling - A literature survey

During last decade, multi-level agent-based modeling has received significant and dramatically increasing interest. In this article we present a comprehensive and structured review of literature on the subject. We present the main theoretical contributions and application domains of this concept, with an emphasis on social, flow, biological and biomedical models.Comment: v2. Ref 102 added. v3-4 Many refs and text added v5-6 bibliographic statistics updated. v7 Change of the name of the paper to reflect what it became, many refs and text added, bibliographic statistics update

Human Behavious Modelling for Discrete Event and Agent Based Simulation: A Case Study

This study is about the comparison of simulation techniques between Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and Agent Based Simulation (ABS). DES is one of the best-known types of simulation techniques in Operational Research. Recently, there has been an emergence of another technique, namely ABS. One of the qualities of ABS is that it helps to gain a better understanding of complex systems that involve the interaction of people with their environment as it allows to model concepts like autonomy and pro-activeness which are important attributes to consider. Although there is a lot of literature relating to DES and ABS, we have found none that focuses on exploring the capability of both in tackling the human behaviour issues which relates to queuing time and customer satisfaction in the retail sector. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify empirically the differences between these simulation techniques by stimulating the potential economic benefits of introducing new policies in a department store. To apply the new strategy, the behaviour of consumers in a retail store will be modelled using the DES and ABS approach and the results will be compared. We aim to understand which simulation technique is better suited to human behaviour modelling by investigating the capability of both techniques in predicting the best solution for an organisation in using management practices. Our main concern is to maximise customer satisfaction, for example by minimising their waiting times for the different services provided

Multi-level agent-based modeling with the Influence Reaction principle

This paper deals with the specification and the implementation of multi-level agent-based models, using a formal model, IRM4MLS (an Influence Reaction Model for Multi-Level Simulation), based on the Influence Reaction principle. Proposed examples illustrate forms of top-down control in (multi-level) multi-agent based-simulations

A framework for the simulation of structural software evolution

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2008 ACM.As functionality is added to an aging piece of software, its original design and structure will tend to erode. This can lead to high coupling, low cohesion and other undesirable effects associated with spaghetti architectures. The underlying forces that cause such degradation have been the subject of much research. However, progress in this field is slow, as its complexity makes it difficult to isolate the causal flows leading to these effects. This is further complicated by the difficulty of generating enough empirical data, in sufficient quantity, and attributing such data to specific points in the causal chain. This article describes a framework for simulating the structural evolution of software. A complete simulation model is built by incrementally adding modules to the framework, each of which contributes an individual evolutionary effect. These effects are then combined to form a multifaceted simulation that evolves a fictitious code base in a manner approximating real-world behavior. We describe the underlying principles and structures of our framework from a theoretical and user perspective; a validation of a simple set of evolutionary parameters is then provided and three empirical software studies generated from open-source software (OSS) are used to support claims and generated results. The research illustrates how simulation can be used to investigate a complex and under-researched area of the development cycle. It also shows the value of incorporating certain human traits into a simulation—factors that, in real-world system development, can significantly influence evolutionary structures