637 research outputs found

    Incremental Predictive Process Monitoring: How to Deal with the Variability of Real Environments

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    A characteristic of existing predictive process monitoring techniques is to first construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make predictive process monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviors over time. As a solution to this problem, we propose the use of algorithms that allow the incremental construction of the predictive model. These incremental learning algorithms update the model whenever new cases become available so that the predictive model evolves over time to fit the current circumstances. The algorithms have been implemented using different case encoding strategies and evaluated on a number of real and synthetic datasets. The results provide a first evidence of the potential of incremental learning strategies for predicting process monitoring in real environments, and of the impact of different case encoding strategies in this setting

    LSTM Networks for Data-Aware Remaining Time Prediction of Business Process Instances

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    Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks (specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary information associated to single events, in order to produce an as-accurate-as-possible prediction of the completion time of running instances. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm the quality of our proposal.Comment: Article accepted for publication in 2017 IEEE Symposium on Deep Learning (IEEE DL'17) @ SSC

    An Eye into the Future: Leveraging A-Priori Knowledge in Predictive Business Process Monitoring

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    Ikka leidub juhtumeid, kus lisaks andmetele minevikust, eksisteerib täiendavaid teadmisi (apriori teadmised) selle kohta, kuidas protsessid teostuvad tulevikus. Neid teadmisi saab kasutada selleks, et parandada tuleviku ennustusi juhtumitele, mille kohta ei ole olevikus informatsiooni. Käesolevas töös tutvustame kahte meetodit - nad põhinevad rekurrentsetel tehisnärvivõrkudel, mis kasutavad pika lühiajalise mäluga (PLM) rakke. Need meetodid kasutavad informatsiooni protsessiteostusjuhtumite struktuuri kohta ja a priori teadmisi protsessi võimalike tulemite kohta, et ennustada järgmisi juhtumeid protsessi teostuse ahelas. Testides neid meetodeid kuue elulise sündmuste logiga näitavad meetodite täpsuse paranemist võrreldes tavaliste PLM-il põhinevate meetoditega.Predictive business process monitoring aims at leveraging past process execution data to predict how ongoing (uncompleted) process executions will unfold up to their completion. Nevertheless, cases exist in which, together with pastexecution data, some additional knowledge (a-prioriknowledge) about how a process execution will develop in the future is available. This knowledge about the future can be leveraged forimproving the quality of the predictions of events that are currently unknown. In this thesis, we present two techniques - based on Recurrent Neural Networks with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells - able to leverage knowledge about the structure of the process execution traces as well as a-priori knowledge about how they will unfold in the future for predicting the sequence of future activities of ongoing process executions. The results obtained by applying these techniques on six real-life logs show an improvement in terms of accuracy over a plain LSTM-based baseline

    Specification-Driven Predictive Business Process Monitoring

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    Predictive analysis in business process monitoring aims at forecasting the future information of a running business process. The prediction is typically made based on the model extracted from historical process execution logs (event logs). In practice, different business domains might require different kinds of predictions. Hence, it is important to have a means for properly specifying the desired prediction tasks, and a mechanism to deal with these various prediction tasks. Although there have been many studies in this area, they mostly focus on a specific prediction task. This work introduces a language for specifying the desired prediction tasks, and this language allows us to express various kinds of prediction tasks. This work also presents a mechanism for automatically creating the corresponding prediction model based on the given specification. Differently from previous studies, instead of focusing on a particular prediction task, we present an approach to deal with various prediction tasks based on the given specification of the desired prediction tasks. We also provide an implementation of the approach which is used to conduct experiments using real-life event logs.Comment: This article significantly extends the previous work in https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91704-7_7 which has a technical report in arXiv:1804.00617. This article and the previous work have a coauthor in commo

    Explain, Adapt and Retrain: How to improve the accuracy of a PPM classifier through different explanation styles

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    Recent papers have introduced a novel approach to explain why a Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) model for outcome-oriented predictions provides wrong predictions. Moreover, they have shown how to exploit the explanations, obtained using state-of-the art post-hoc explainers, to identify the most common features that induce a predictor to make mistakes in a semi-automated way, and, in turn, to reduce the impact of those features and increase the accuracy of the predictive model. This work starts from the assumption that frequent control flow patterns in event logs may represent important features that characterize, and therefore explain, a certain prediction. Therefore, in this paper, we (i) employ a novel encoding able to leverage DECLARE constraints in Predictive Process Monitoring and compare the effectiveness of this encoding with Predictive Process Monitoring state-of-the art encodings, in particular for the task of outcome-oriented predictions; (ii) introduce a completely automated pipeline for the identification of the most common features inducing a predictor to make mistakes; and (iii) show the effectiveness of the proposed pipeline in increasing the accuracy of the predictive model by validating it on different real-life datasets

    Predictive Process Monitoring Methods: Which One Suits Me Best?

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    Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques

    Leveraging Multi-Perspective A priori Knowledge in Predictive Business Process Monitoring

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    Äriprotsesside ennestusseire on valdkond, mis on pühendunud käimasolevate äriprotsesside tuleviku ennustamisele kasutades selleks minevikus sooritatud äriprotsesside kohta käivaid andmeid. Valdav osa uurimustööst selles valdkonnas keskendub ainult seda tüüpi andmetele, jättes tähelepanuta täiendavad teadmised (a priori teadmised) protsessi teostumise kohta tulevikus. Hiljuti pakuti välja lähenemine, mis võimaldab a priori teadmisi kasutada LTL-reeglite näol. Kuid tõsiasjana on antud tehnika limiteeritud äriprotsessi kontroll-voole, jättes välja võimaluse väljendada a priori teadmisi, mis puudutavad lisaks kontrollvoole ka informatsiooni protsessis leiduvate atribuutide kohta (multiperspektiivsed a priori teadmised). Me pakume välja lahenduse, mis võimaldab seda tüüpi teadmiste kasutuse, tehes multiperspektiivseid ennustusi käimasoleva äriprotsessi kohta. Tulemused, milleni jõuti rakendades väljapakutud tehnikat 20-le tehisärilogile ning ühele elulisele ärilogile, näitavad, et meie lähenemine suudab pakkuda konkurentsivõimelisi ennustusi.Predictive business process monitoring is an area dedicated to exploiting past process execution data in order to predict the future unfolding of a currently executed business process instance. Most of the research done in this domain focuses on exploiting the past process execution data only, leaving neglected additional a priori knowledge that might become available at runtime. Recently, an approach was proposed, which allows to leverage a priori knowledge on the control flow in the form of LTL-rules. However, cases exist in which more granular a priori knowledge becomes available about perspectives that go be-yond the pure control flow like data, time and resources (multiperspective a priori knowledge). In this thesis, we propose a technique that enables to leverage multi-perspective a priori knowledge when making predictions of complex sequences, i.e., sequences of events with a subset of the data attributes attached to them. The results, obtained by applying the proposed technique to 20 synthetic logs and 1 real life log, show that the proposed technique is able to overcome state-of-the-art approaches by successfully leveraging multiperspective a priori knowledge

    Genetic algorithms for hyperparameter optimization in predictive business process monitoring

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    Predictive business process monitoring exploits event logs to predict how ongoing (uncompleted) traces will unfold up to their completion. A predictive process monitoring framework collects a range of techniques that allow users to get accurate predictions about the achievement of a goal for a given ongoing trace. These techniques can be combined and their parameters configured in different framework instances. Unfortunately, a unique framework instance that is general enough to outperform others for every dataset, goal or type of prediction is elusive. Thus, the selection and configuration of a framework instance needs to be done for a given dataset. This paper presents a predictive process monitoring framework armed with a hyperparameter optimization method to select a suitable framework instance for a given dataset
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