Syndromes leading to failure: an exploratory research.

Prediction of corporate failure research typically focused on the design of multivariate prediction models for the discrimination betw een failed and non-failed firms. This research atracted some criticism due to the inability to formulate generally applicable models. Several reasons may have led to the im possibility of formulating such models: it has been argued that firms suffering financial distress may have incentives to manipulate accounting information in order to increase users’ confidence; statisti cal techniques could overadjust prediction models; and finally, the existence of different failure processes is not considered by prior research. The main objective of the present research is to investigate the unique characteristics of failed companies, the reasons for each particular failure and the presence of different failure processes. The present study aims to be the first step in the opening of a new stage in the development of a theoretical framework on corporate failure. It is assumed that there exist different paths to failure, instead of a simple differentiation between healthy and failed firms. This is the main contribution of the paper, which is relevant to both researchers and practitioners. It opens up new possibilities for future research, following new experimental designs. For practitioners, it constitutes a new framework for the development of decisi on-aid tools (raising the opportunity to use decision making systems based on different rules or models for different paths)

USING IMPROVED GREY FORECASTING MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION DEMAND IN VIETNAM

Abstract: On the basis of the grey prediction models, this study uses the previous data (from 1980 to 2014) from the website of the World Bank and applies two algorithm models to forecast the electricity consumption in Vietnam. The simulation results show that Fourier Residual Modified GM (1, 1) (abbreviated as FRMGM (1, 1)) is an effective model with an average accuracy of prediction at 99.13%. Therefore, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecasting the electricity consumption demand in Vietnam.Keywords: electricity consumption demand, GM (1, 1); FRMGM (1, 1), Vietna

The contribution of USM company financial data to the study of traditional MDA predictive models

This thesis presents a detailed investigation of predicting of corporate financial failure, using two traditional (Altman and Taffler) Multiple Discriminant Analysis models on companies whose equities are traded on the London Unlisted Securities Market (USM) and on those that have passed or graduated from the USM to a full listing. The primary objective was to see if the two models can be effectively used in the context of the USM to either to predict or at least indicate symptoms of financial collapse. Secondly, ratios were taken for further discriminant analysis to see if better ratios can be identified and predictions developed from one or a group of ratios. In this study consideration also has been given to the limited progress in developing the underlying theory of bankruptcy. The Altman and Taffler MDA models were tested on the USM data. Their predictions compared favourably with those of a multi-discriminant model that was derived from the USM data. However, it was found that all three models gave mediocre and late predictions of individual company bankruptcy. The research found that MDA analysis of company failure had to be supplemented by a more behavioural and subjective approach to the question of company failure in order to be useful. Even so, the dissertation is able to end with some useful pointers for future research

Azerbaijan: Recent Economic Developments and Policy Issues in Sustainability of Growth

The macro economic stabilisation in Azerbaijan has been successful. Following cessation of conflict with Armenia, and decline of GDP by 60 per cent from 1990 to 1995, the government in effect implemented a big-bang reform process in 1995. The inflation rate has now declined to the lowest rate of any transition country and important reforms in the monetary-fiscal mix have been undertaken. The second plank of first generation reforms, liberalisation, has also been successfully implemented with liberalisation of prices, the trade and foreign exchange regimes and virtual completion of small-scale privatisation, although the onset of the Russian crisis in 1998 has impacted negatively both internal and external balances. The paper presents the current economic picture for Azerbaijan and then assesses economic policy issues facing the country. Azerbaijan is well endowed with natural resources, particularly oil but also gas. The second part of the paper considers the question by focussing on policy issues related to the potential flow of oil-based monies into Azerbaijan. The possibility of the “Dutch Disease” syndrome impacting Azerbaijan through a rising real exchange rate on the non-oil sector is not considered to be a problem at present but is expected to become a policy concern in the medium- to long term. Structural reforms in public finance to deal with expected surpluses are lagging and are necessary in the next phase of the transition of Azerbaijan. Moreover, significant reforms are required in banking – privatisation, improvement in regulation and supervision and in the implementation of supporting legal rights, given the current lack of financial intermediation.Azerbaijan; economic development; oil; Dutch Disease; transition economies

Financial distress prediction of Airlines in ASIA

The objective of this study is to identify financial distress of airlines in Asia using three different method namely Altman Z-Score model, Springate model and Zmijewski Model. The study was conducted using quantitative research method based on secondary data and obtained from Bloomberg Terminal during 2016 until 2020 on a quarterly basis. Descriptive and comparative analysis method has been used for the study and these models is developed to compare the independent variables. Descriptive analysis in this study indicated that Altman Z-Score model is the most significant model to predict financial distress of the companies. The comparative analysis shows there is significant difference between Altman Z-Score model and Zmijewski model also between Springate model and Zmijewski model. However, Altman Z-Score model and Springate model indicates that there is no significance model

Corporate governance and corporate failure: evidence from listed UK firms

This study is motivated by the numerous reforms to strengthen the efficacy of corporate boards and their oversight committees, in the wake of high profile corporate failures. The empirical question, however, is whether recent proposals would enhance board and their committee effectiveness and in this way, reduce the likelihood of firm`s failure. This study examines whether the composition, structure and functions of corporate boards and their interactions are related to the probability of corporate failure. Prior studies employ agency and resource dependency theories in isolation as theoretical lenses. This study, however, employs these aforementioned theories as theoretical lenses and argues that the board control and resource function affects the relationship between corporate board attributes and corporate failure. This study examines a sample of 358 UK listed firms, consisting of 95 failed firms and 263 non-failed firms during the period 1999-2011. This study also uses a unique hand-collected data set that measures the corporate governance attributes and functions of these 358 firms over a period of five years preceding failure or otherwise, resulting in 1748 firm-years observations. This study reveals that the probability of failure is lower in firms with large board size, former government officials, independent remuneration committee chairman and greater proportion of outside directors as well as effective audit and remuneration committees. This study also finds that the prospect of corporate failure is higher in firms with less than three independent NEDs on both the audit and nomination committees, without audit committee and where audit committee has no one with financial expertise. The results, however, suggest that the possibility of corporate failure is higher in firms whose boards have a female director and where the nomination committee meets often or where its membership is exclusively preserved for independent NEDs. On the interaction effects, the results show that frequency of board meetings as well as its interactions with presence of female directors, audit and remuneration committees effectiveness are positively related to the probability of corporate failure. The results also indicate that a number of interactions between corporate board attributes and functions are unrelated to the likelihood of corporate failure. These include the interactions between board composition measures (i.e. proportion of outside directors, presence of female directors and board size) and the board resource proxy (i.e. former government official). These associations, especially remuneration committee effectiveness, remuneration committee chairman independence, firm size and profitability, are not only statistically and economically significant but also robust to different specifications. Further, the Receiver Operating Curves indicate that the impact of corporate governance measures after controlling for firm size, liquidity, profitability, age, industry effects, and leverage is more profound in two years preceding failure. The implication of this is that corporate governance mechanisms alone are insufficient to rescue the firm on the verge of collapse. The findings are consistent with the idea that failing firms decline in size, managerial performance, corporate board attributes as well as their board`s ability to discharge it`s monitoring and resource roles. This study adds to the debate on the impact of corporate governance on corporate failure by developing, analysing and testing a robust UK corporate failure prediction model which is underpinned by a multi-theoretical framework: agency and resource dependency theories. This study also offers several recommendations for policy makers and firm-level corporate governance strategies in the mix of the numerous corporate governance reforms worldwide, this in particular makes this study unique

An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung

Abstract:-Based on the grey theory, grey prediction models, which are GM (1, 1), have been adopted to predict the cargo throughput and modified GM (1, 1) using Fourier series called "FRMGM (1, 1)" for improving the accuracy of forecast model. A forecasting the cargo throughput in the international commercial port of Kaohsiung from 2013-2015 has also been conducted based on the previous data to serve as a reference for port manager in making development plans and construction as well as orienting development in the future. All data source is collected from the Ministry of Transportation and Communication of Taiwan. Through simulation results, this study showed that both of two models are suitable but the FRMGM (1, 1) is the excellent model in forecast with average accuracy of predict is 100%. Hence, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecast the cargo throughput in the port of Kaohsiung

New Progress of Grey System Theory in The New Millennium

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarize the progress in grey system research during 2000- 2015, so as to present some important new concepts, models, methods and a new framework of grey system theory. Design/methodology/approach –The new thinking, new models and new methods of grey system theory and their applications are presented in this paper. It includes algorithm rules of grey numbers based on the “Kernel” and the degree of greyness of grey numbers, the concept of general grey numbers, the synthesis axiom of degree of greyness of grey numbers and their operations; the general form of buffer operators of grey sequence operators; the four basic models of GM(1,1), such as Even Grey Model(EGM), Original Difference Grey Model(ODGM), Even Difference Grey Model(EDGM), Discrete Grey Model(DGM) and the suitable sequence type of each basic model, and suitable range of most used grey forecasting models; the similarity degree of grey incidences, the closeness degree of grey incidences and the three dimensional absolute degree of grey incidence of grey incidence analysis models; the grey cluster model based on center-point and end-point mixed triangular whitenization functions; the multi-attribute intelligent grey target decision model, the two stages decision model with grey synthetic measure of grey decision models; grey game models, grey input-output models of grey combined models; and the problems of robust stability for grey stochastic time-delay systems of neutral type, distributed-delay type and neutral distributed-delay type of grey control, etc. And the new framework of grey system theory is given as well. Findings –The problems which remain for further studying are discussed at the end of each section. The reader could know the general picture of research and developing trend of grey system theory from this paper. Practical implications – A lot of successful practical applications of the new models to solve various problems have been found in many different areas of natural science, social science, and engineering, including spaceflight, civil aviation, information, metallurgy, machinery, petroleum, chemical industry, electrical power, electronics, light industries, energy resources, transportation, medicine, health, agriculture, forestry, geography, hydrology, seismology, meteorology, environment protection, architecture, behavioral science, management science, law, education, military science, etc. These practical applications have brought forward definite and noticeable social and economic benefits. It demonstrates a wide range of applicability of grey system theory, especially in the situation where the available information is incomplete and the collected data are inaccurate. Originality/value –The reader is given a general picture of grey systems theory as a new model system and a new framework for studying problems where partial information is known; especially for uncertain systems with few data points and poor information. The problems remaining for further studying are identified at the end of each section. Keywords Grey systems theory, Operations of grey numbers, Buffer operators, Grey forecasting models, Grey incidence analysis models, Grey cluster evaluation models, Grey decision models, Combined grey models, Grey contro