Bayesian network structure learning using characteristic properties of permutation representations with applications to prostate cancer treatment.

Over the last decades, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become an increasingly popular technique to model data under presence of uncertainty. BNs are probabilistic models that represent relationships between variables by means of a node structure and a set of parameters. Learning efficiently the structure that models a particular dataset is a NP-hard task that requires substantial computational efforts to be successful. Although there exist many families of techniques for this purpose, this thesis focuses on the study and improvement of search and score methods such as Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs). In the domain of BN structure learning, previous work has investigated the use of permutations to represent variable orderings within EAs. In this thesis, the characteristic properties of permutation representations are analysed and used in order to enhance BN structure learning. The thesis assesses well-established algorithms to provide a detailed analysis of the difficulty of learning BN structures using permutation representations. Using selected benchmarks, rugged and plateaued fitness landscapes are identified that result in a loss of population diversity throughout the search. The thesis proposes two approaches to handle the loss of diversity. First, the benefits of introducing the Island Model (IM) paradigm are studied, showing that diversity loss can be significantly reduced. Second, a novel agent-based metaheuristic is presented in which evolution is based on the use of several mutation operators and the definition of a distance metric in permutation spaces. The latter approach shows that diversity can be maintained throughout the search while exploring efficiently the solution space. In addition, the use of IM is investigated in the context of distributed data, a common property of real-world problems. Experiments prove that privacy can be preserved while learning BNs of high quality. Finally, using UK-wide data related to prostate cancer patients, the thesis assesses the general suitability of BNs alongside the proposed learning approaches for medical data modeling. Following comparisons with tools currently used in clinical settings and with alternative classifiers, it is shown that BNs can improve the predictive power of prostate cancer staging tools, a major concern in the field of urology

Social decision-making driven by artistic explore-exploit tension

We studied social decision-making in the rule-based improvisational dance $There$ $Might$ $Be$ $Others$, where dancers make in-the-moment compositional choices. Rehearsals provided a natural test-bed with communication restricted to non-verbal cues. We observed a key artistic explore-exploit tension in which the dancers switched between exploitation of existing artistic opportunities and riskier exploration of new ones. We investigated how the rules influenced the dynamics using rehearsals together with a model generalized from evolutionary dynamics. We tuned the rules to heighten the tension and modeled nonlinear fitness and feedback dynamics for mutation rate to capture the observed temporal phasing of the dancers' exploration-versus-exploitation. Using bifurcation analysis, we identified key controls of the tension and showed how they could shape the decision-making dynamics of the model much like turning a "dial" in the instructions to the dancers could shape the dance. The investigation became an integral part of the development of the dance

Evolving Graphs by Graph Programming

Graphs are a ubiquitous data structure in computer science and can be used to represent solutions to difficult problems in many distinct domains. This motivates the use of Evolutionary Algorithms to search over graphs and efficiently find approximate solutions. However, existing techniques often represent and manipulate graphs in an ad-hoc manner. In contrast, rule-based graph programming offers a formal mechanism for describing relations over graphs. This thesis proposes the use of rule-based graph programming for representing and implementing genetic operators over graphs. We present the Evolutionary Algorithm Evolving Graphs by Graph Programming and a number of its extensions which are capable of learning stateful and stateless digital circuits, symbolic expressions and Artificial Neural Networks. We demonstrate that rule-based graph programming may be used to implement new and effective constraint-respecting mutation operators and show that these operators may strictly generalise others found in the literature. Through our proposal of Semantic Neutral Drift, we accelerate the search process by building plateaus into the fitness landscape using domain knowledge of equivalence. We also present Horizontal Gene Transfer, a mechanism whereby graphs may be passively recombined without disrupting their fitness. Through rigorous evaluation and analysis of over 20,000 independent executions of Evolutionary Algorithms, we establish numerous benefits of our approach. We find that on many problems, Evolving Graphs by Graph Programming and its variants may significantly outperform other approaches from the literature. Additionally, our empirical results provide further evidence that neutral drift aids the efficiency of evolutionary search

Multiagent systems: games and learning from structures

Multiple agents have become increasingly utilized in various fields for both physical robots and software agents, such as search and rescue robots, automated driving, auctions and electronic commerce agents, and so on. In multiagent domains, agents interact and coadapt with other agents. Each agent's choice of policy depends on the others' joint policy to achieve the best available performance. During this process, the environment evolves and is no longer stationary, where each agent adapts to proceed towards its target. Each micro-level step in time may present a different learning problem which needs to be addressed. However, in this non-stationary environment, a holistic phenomenon forms along with the rational strategies of all players; we define this phenomenon as structural properties. In our research, we present the importance of analyzing the structural properties, and how to extract the structural properties in multiagent environments. According to the agents' objectives, a multiagent environment can be classified as self-interested, cooperative, or competitive. We examine the structure from these three general multiagent environments: self-interested random graphical game playing, distributed cooperative team playing, and competitive group survival. In each scenario, we analyze the structure in each environmental setting, and demonstrate the structure learned as a comprehensive representation: structure of players' action influence, structure of constraints in teamwork communication, and structure of inter-connections among strategies. This structure represents macro-level knowledge arising in a multiagent system, and provides critical, holistic information for each problem domain. Last, we present some open issues and point toward future research

Modeling Interactions Between Language Evolution and Demography

In this article I provide a review of studies that have modeled interactions between language evolution and demographic processes. The models are classifi ed in terms of three different approaches: analytical modeling, agent-based analytical modeling, and agent-based cognitive modeling. I show that these approaches differ in the complexity of interactions that they can handle and that the agent-based cognitive models allow for the most detailed and realistic simulations. Thus readers are provided with a guideline for selecting which approach to use for a given problem. The analytical models are useful for studying interactions between demography and language evolution in terms of high-level processes; the agent-based analytical models are good for studying such interactions in terms of social dynamics without bothering too much about the cognitive mechanisms of language processing; and the agent-based cognitive models are best suited for the study of the interactions between the complex sociocognitive mechanisms underlying language evolution

Measuring similarity between gene expression profiles: a Bayesian approach

BACKGROUND: Grouping genes into clusters on the basis of similarity between their expression profiles has been the main approach to predict functional modules, from which important inference or further investigation decision could be made. While the univocal determination of similarity metric is important, current practices are normally involved with Euclidean distance and Pearson correlation, of which assumptions are not likely the case for high-throughput microarray data. RESULTS: We advocate the use of a novel metric - BayesGen - to measure similarity between gene expression profiles, and demonstrate its performance on two important applications: constructing genome-wide co-expression network, and clustering cancer human tissues into subtypes. BayesGen is formulated as the evidence ratio between two alternative hypotheses about the generating mechanism of a given pair of genes, and incorporates as prior knowledge the global characteristics of the whole dataset. Through the joint modelling of expected intensity levels and noise variances, it addresses the inherent nonlinearity and the association of noise levels across different microarray value ranges. The full Bayesian formulation also facilitates the possibility of meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: BayesGen allows more effective extraction of similarity information between genes from microarray expression data, which has significant effect on various inference tasks. It also provides a robust choice for other object-feature data, as illustrated through the results of the test on synthetic data

Algorithms in future capital markets: A survey on AI, ML and associated algorithms in capital markets

This paper reviews Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML) and associated algorithms in future Capital Markets. New AI algorithms are constantly emerging, with each 'strain' mimicking a new form of human learning, reasoning, knowledge, and decisionmaking. The current main disrupting forms of learning include Deep Learning, Adversarial Learning, Transfer and Meta Learning. Albeit these modes of learning have been in the AI/ML field more than a decade, they now are more applicable due to the availability of data, computing power and infrastructure. These forms of learning have produced new models (e.g., Long Short-Term Memory, Generative Adversarial Networks) and leverage important applications (e.g., Natural Language Processing, Adversarial Examples, Deep Fakes, etc.). These new models and applications will drive changes in future Capital Markets, so it is important to understand their computational strengths and weaknesses. Since ML algorithms effectively self-program and evolve dynamically, financial institutions and regulators are becoming increasingly concerned with ensuring there remains a modicum of human control, focusing on Algorithmic Interpretability/Explainability, Robustness and Legality. For example, the concern is that, in the future, an ecology of trading algorithms across different institutions may 'conspire' and become unintentionally fraudulent (cf. LIBOR) or subject to subversion through compromised datasets (e.g. Microsoft Tay). New and unique forms of systemic risks can emerge, potentially coming from excessive algorithmic complexity. The contribution of this paper is to review AI, ML and associated algorithms, their computational strengths and weaknesses, and discuss their future impact on the Capital Markets