4,123 research outputs found

    Proceedings of the 11th European Agent Systems Summer School Student Session

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    This volume contains the papers presented at the Student Session of the 11th European Agent Systems Summer School (EASSS) held on 2nd of September 2009 at Educatorio della Providenza, Turin, Italy. The Student Session, organised by students, is designed to encourage student interaction and feedback from the tutors. By providing the students with a conference-like setup, both in the presentation and in the review process, students have the opportunity to prepare their own submission, go through the selection process and present their work to each other and their interests to their fellow students as well as internationally leading experts in the agent field, both from the theoretical and the practical sector. Table of Contents: Andrew Koster, Jordi Sabater Mir and Marco Schorlemmer, Towards an inductive algorithm for learning trust alignment . . . 5; Angel Rolando Medellin, Katie Atkinson and Peter McBurney, A Preliminary Proposal for Model Checking Command Dialogues. . . 12; Declan Mungovan, Enda Howley and Jim Duggan, Norm Convergence in Populations of Dynamically Interacting Agents . . . 19; Akın GĂŒnay, Argumentation on Bayesian Networks for Distributed Decision Making . . 25; Michael Burkhardt, Marco Luetzenberger and Nils Masuch, Towards Toolipse 2: Tool Support for the JIAC V Agent Framework . . . 30; Joseph El Gemayel, The Tenacity of Social Actors . . . 33; Cristian Gratie, The Impact of Routing on Traffic Congestion . . . 36; Andrei-Horia Mogos and Monica Cristina Voinescu, A Rule-Based Psychologist Agent for Improving the Performances of a Sportsman . . . 39; --Autonomer Agent,Agent,KĂŒnstliche Intelligenz

    Action selection in early stages of psychosis: an active inference approach

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    BACKGROUND: To interact successfully with their environment, humans need to build a model to make sense of noisy and ambiguous inputs. An inaccurate model, as suggested to be the case for people with psychosis, disturbs optimal action selection. Recent computational models, such as active inference, have emphasized the importance of action selection, treating it as a key part of the inferential process. Based on an active inference framework, we sought to evaluate previous knowledge and belief precision in an action-based task, given that alterations in these parameters have been linked to the development of psychotic symptoms. We further sought to determine whether task performance and modelling parameters would be suitable for classification of patients and controls. METHODS: Twenty-three individuals with an at-risk mental state, 26 patients with first-episode psychosis and 31 controls completed a probabilistic task in which action choice (go/no-go) was dissociated from outcome valence (gain or loss). We evaluated group differences in performance and active inference model parameters and performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses to assess group classification. RESULTS: We found reduced overall performance in patients with psychosis. Active inference modelling revealed that patients showed increased forgetting, reduced confidence in policy selection and less optimal general choice behaviour, with poorer action-state associations. Importantly, ROC analysis showed fair-to-good classification performance for all groups, when combining modelling parameters and performance measures. LIMITATIONS: The sample size is moderate. CONCLUSION: Active inference modelling of this task provides further explanation for dysfunctional mechanisms underlying decision-making in psychosis and may be relevant for future research on the development of biomarkers for early identification of psychosis

    Evaluation of a prior-incorporated statistical model and established classifiers for externally visible characteristics prediction

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    Human identification through DNA has played an important role in forensic science and in the criminal justice system for decades. It is referring to the association of genetic data with a particular human being and has facilitated police investigations in cases such as the identification of suspected perpetrators from biological traces found at crime scenes, missing persons, or victims of mass disasters [1]. Currently there are two main methods developed: the genotyping through short tandem repeats (STR profiling) and the forensic DNA phenotyping (FDP). Despite the fact that these two methods are aiming in identifying a person through its genetic material, their approach and consequences that come up are completely different. STR profiling compares allele repeats at specific loci in DNA and aims at a match with already known to the police authorities DNA profiles, while FDP, which is the focus on the current study, aims in the prediction of appearance traits of an individual [2, 3]. In contrast with STR profiling, information that arise out of FDP cannot be used as sole evidence in the court [4]. The ability of predicting EVCs from DNA can be used as ‘biological witnesses’ that can only provide leads for the investigative authorities and subsequently narrow down a possible large set of potential suspects. The use of FDP begins a new era of ‘DNA intelligence’ and holds great promise especially in cases where individuals cannot be identified with the conventional method of STR profiling and also in cases where there is no additional knowledge on the sample donor. So far in FDP, traits such as eye, hair and skin color can be predicted reliably with high prediction accuracy and predictive models have already been forensically validated [5-7]. Regarding other appearance traits, the current lack of knowledge on the genetic markers responsible for their phenotypic variation and the lower predictability, especially of intermediate categories, has prevented FDP from being routinely implemented in the field of forensic science. The majority of the predictive models developed for appearance trait prediction were based on multinomial logistic regression (MLR) while only few used other methods such as decision trees and neural networks. Machine learning (ML) approaches have become a widely used tool for classification problems in several fields and they are known for their potential to boost model performance and their ability to handle different and complex types of data [8]. However, within the context of predicting EVCs, a systematic and comparative analysis among different ML approaches that could possibly indicate methods that outperform the standard MLR, has not been conducted so far. In addition, incorporation of priors in the EVC prediction models that may have potential to improve the already existing approaches, has not been investigated in the context of forensics yet. These priors indicate the trait category prevalence values among biogeographic ancestry groups, and their use would allow us to leverage Bayesian statistics in order to build more powerful prediction models. In our case, incorporation of such priors in the model could reflect the additional information from all yet unknown causal genetic factors and act as proxies in the prediction model. Therefore, those two approaches were conducted throughout my PhD project in order to improve the already existing approaches of FDP which was the main aim of my study. In the first study, I aimed to collect a comprehensive data set from previously published sources on the spatial distribution of different appearance traits. I conducted a literature review in order to assemble this information, which later on could be incorporated as priors in the EVCs prediction models. Due to the lack of available and reliable sources, our resulting data set contained only eye and hair color for mostly European countries. More specifically, I collected data on eye color from 16 European and Central Asian countries, while for hair color I collected data from seven European countries. For countries outside of Europe, where the variation is low, it was not possible to assemble trustworthy and population-representative data. Afterwards, I calculated the association of those two traits and obtained a moderate association between them. Interpolation techniques were applied in order to infer trait prevalence values in at least neighboring countries. Resulting prevalences and interpolated values were presented in spatial maps. The subject of the second study was to incorporate the trait prevalence values as priors in the prediction model. However, due to the lack of reliable data that was observed in the first study, the incorporation of the actual priors that would give us the actual insight of their impact in the EVC prediction was not feasible with the current existing knowledge and the available data. Therefore, I assessed the impact of priors across a grid that contained all possible values that priors can take, for a set of appearance traits including eye, hair, skin color, hair structure, and freckles. In this way, I aimed to assess potential pitfalls caused by misspecification of priors. Results were compared and evaluated with the corresponding prior-free' previously established prediction models. The effect of priors was demonstrated in the standard performance measurements, including area under curve (AUC) and overall accuracy. I found out that from all possible prior values, there is a proportion that shows potential in improving the prediction accuracy. However, possible misspecification of priors can significantly diminish the overall accuracy. Based on that, I emphasize the importance of accurate prior values in the prediction modelling in order to identify the actual impact. As a consequence of the above, the use of prior informed models in forensics is currently infeasible and more studies on the topic are necessary in order to extend the current knowledge on spatial trait prevalence. Finally, the focus of the third study was exploring and comparing the performances of methodologies beyond MLR. MLR is considered the standard method for predicting EVCs, since the majority of the predictive models developed are based on that method. Due to the fact that there is still potential for improvement of MLR models, especially for traits such as skin color or hair structure, I aimed at applying different ML methods in order to identify whether there is a potential classifier that outperforms the conventional method of MLR. Therefore I conducted a systematic comparison between MLR and three alternative ML classifiers, namely support vector machines (SVM), random forests (RF) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The traits that I focused on here were eye, hair, and skin color. All models were based on the genetic markers that were previously established in IrisPlex, HIrisPlex and HIrisPlex-S [5-7]. Overall, I observed that all four classifiers performed almost equally well, especially for eye color. Only non-substantial differences were obtained across the different traits and across trait categories. Given this outcome, none of the ML methods applied here performed better than MLR, at least for the three traits of eye, hair, and skin color. Ultimately, due to the easier interpretability of the MLR, it is suggested at least for now and for the currently known marker sets, that the use of MLR is the most appropriate method for predicting appearance traits from DNA. Throughout my PhD project, it became apparent that the available knowledge on spatial trait prevalence values was quite restricted not only in certain appearance traits but also in continental groups. More specifically, most available and reliable data were focused on European populations and the traits that were available were mostly for eye and hair color. For other traits, such as skin color, hair structure, and freckles, the data were either extremely few or nonexistent. This was a significant obstacle throughout the project, since it prevented me from applying and testing the actual impact of the accurate trait prevalence values as priors in EVC prediction. However, the lack of data presented an opportunity to perform in-depth theoretical research, in particular testing the impact of priors within a spatial grid that included its possible values. I found out that there is a proportion of priors that showed potential to improve EVC prediction. However, caution is advised regarding misspecification of priors that can significantly deteriorate the models' performance. Furthermore, the application of different ML approaches did not show any significant improvement on the prediction performance against the standard MLR. This could be due to the nature of the traits, since some of them are multifactorial and affected by various external independent factors or due to possible limitations of the currently known predictive markers. With the available knowledge so far, it is emphasized throughout this study that for the time being, priors are refrained from being incorporated in the EVC prediction models while from the different classifiers applied, MLR is considered as the most appropriate method for EVC prediction due to its easier interpretability. In addition, the presented study highlights the importance of reference data on externally visible traits and the identification of more genetic markers that contribute to certain traits and I hope that the present work will motivate the emergence of these certain types of data collections that potentially may improve the current EVC prediction models

    Bayesian Machine Learning Techniques for revealing complex interactions among genetic and clinical factors in association with extra-intestinal Manifestations in IBD patients

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    The objective of the study is to assess the predictive performance of three different techniques as classifiers for extra-intestinal manifestations in 152 patients with Crohn's disease. Na\uefve Bayes, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and Bayesian Networks implemented using a Greedy Thick Thinning algorithm for learning dependencies among variables and EM algorithm for learning conditional probabilities associated to each variable are taken into account. Three sets of variables were considered: (i) disease characteristics: presentation, behavior and location (ii) risk factors: age, gender, smoke and familiarity and (iii) genetic polymorphisms of the NOD2, CD14, TNFA, IL12B, and IL1RN genes, whose involvement in Crohn's disease is known or suspected. Extra-intestinal manifestations occurred in 75 patients. Bayesian Networks achieved accuracy of 82% when considering only clinical factors and 89% when considering also genetic information, outperforming the other techniques. CD14 has a small predicting capability. Adding TNFA, IL12B to the 3020insC NOD2 variant improved the accuracy

    Dynamic Programming and Bayesian Inference

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    Dynamic programming and Bayesian inference have been both intensively and extensively developed during recent years. Because of these developments, interest in dynamic programming and Bayesian inference and their applications has greatly increased at all mathematical levels. The purpose of this book is to provide some applications of Bayesian optimization and dynamic programming

    Exploring and Exploiting Models of the Fitness Landscape: a Case Against Evolutionary Optimization

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    In recent years, the theories of natural selection and biological evolution have proved popular metaphors for understanding and solving optimization problems in engineering design. This thesis identifies some fundamental problems associated with this use of such metaphors. Key objections are the failure of evolutionary optimization techniques to represent explicitly the goal of the optimization process, and poor use of knowledge developed during the process. It is also suggested that convergent behaviour of an optimization algorithm is an undesirable quality if the algorithm is to be applied to multimodal problems. An alternative approach to optimization is suggested, based on the explicit use of knowledge and/or assumptions about the nature of the optimization problem to construct Bayesian probabilistic models of the surface being optimized and the goal of the optimization. Distinct exploratory and exploitative strategies are identified for carrying out optimization based on such models—exploration based on attempting to reduce maximally an entropy-based measure of the total uncertainty concerning the satisfaction of the optimization goal over the space, exploitation based on evalutation of the point judged most likely to achieve the goal—together with a composite strategy which combines exploration and exploitation in a principled manner. The behaviour of these strategies is empirically investigated on a number of test problems. Results suggest that the approach taken may well provide effective optimization in a way which addresses the criticisms made of the evolutionary metaphor, subject to issues of the computational cost of the approach being satisfactorily addressed

    A group decision-making methodology with incomplete individual beliefs applied to e-Democracy

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    We consider the situation where there are several alternatives for investing a quantity of money to achieve a set of objectives. The choice of which alternative to apply depends on how citizens and political representatives perceive that such objectives should be achieved. All citizens with the right to vote can express their preferences in the decision-making process. These preferences may be incomplete. Political representatives represent the citizens who have not taken part in the decision-making process. The weight corresponding to political representatives depends on the number of citizens that have intervened in the decision-making process. The methodology we propose needs the participants to specify for each alternative how they rate the different attributes and the relative importance of attributes. On the basis of this information an expected utility interval is output for each alternative. To do this, an evidential reasoning approach is applied. This approach improves the insightfulness and rationality of the decision-making process using a belief decision matrix for problem modeling and the Dempster?Shafer theory of evidence for attribute aggregation. Finally, we propose using the distances of each expected utility interval from the maximum and the minimum utilities to rank the alternative set. The basic idea is that an alternative is ranked first if its distance to the maximum utility is the smallest, and its distance to the minimum utility is the greatest. If only one of these conditions is satisfied, a distance ratio is then used

    Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

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    Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty
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