Finding kernel function for stock market prediction with support vector regression

Stock market prediction is one of the fascinating issues of stock market research. Accurate stock prediction becomes the biggest challenge in investment industry because the distribution of stock data is changing over the time. Time series forcasting, Neural Network (NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are once commonly used for prediction on stock price. In this study, the data mining operation called time series forecasting is implemented. The large amount of stock data collected from Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange is used for the experiment to test the validity of SVMs regression. SVM is a new machine learning technique with principle of structural minimization risk, which have greater generalization ability and proved success in time series prediction. Two kernel functions namely Radial Basis Function and polynomial are compared for finding the accurate prediction values. Besides that, backpropagation neural network are also used to compare the predictions performance. Several experiments are conducted and some analyses on the experimental results are done. The results show that SVM with polynomial kernels provide a promising alternative tool in KLSE stock market prediction

An Overview on Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Optical Networks

Today's telecommunication networks have become sources of enormous amounts of widely heterogeneous data. This information can be retrieved from network traffic traces, network alarms, signal quality indicators, users' behavioral data, etc. Advanced mathematical tools are required to extract meaningful information from these data and take decisions pertaining to the proper functioning of the networks from the network-generated data. Among these mathematical tools, Machine Learning (ML) is regarded as one of the most promising methodological approaches to perform network-data analysis and enable automated network self-configuration and fault management. The adoption of ML techniques in the field of optical communication networks is motivated by the unprecedented growth of network complexity faced by optical networks in the last few years. Such complexity increase is due to the introduction of a huge number of adjustable and interdependent system parameters (e.g., routing configurations, modulation format, symbol rate, coding schemes, etc.) that are enabled by the usage of coherent transmission/reception technologies, advanced digital signal processing and compensation of nonlinear effects in optical fiber propagation. In this paper we provide an overview of the application of ML to optical communications and networking. We classify and survey relevant literature dealing with the topic, and we also provide an introductory tutorial on ML for researchers and practitioners interested in this field. Although a good number of research papers have recently appeared, the application of ML to optical networks is still in its infancy: to stimulate further work in this area, we conclude the paper proposing new possible research directions

The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

Improving bankruptcy prediction in micro-entities by using nonlinear effects and non-financial variables

The use of non-parametric methodologies, the introduction of non-financial variables, and the development of models geared towards the homogeneous characteristics of corporate sub-populations have recently experienced a surge of interest in the bankruptcy literature. However, no research on default prediction has yet focused on micro-entities (MEs), despite such firms’ importance in the global economy. This paper builds the first bankruptcy model especially designed for MEs by using a wide set of accounts from 1999 to 2008 and applying artificial neural networks (ANNs). Our findings show that ANNs outperform the traditional logistic regression (LR) models. In addition, we also report that, thanks to the introduction of non-financial predictors related to age, the delay in filing accounts, legal action by creditors to recover unpaid debts, and the ownership features of the company, the improvement with respect to the use of solely financial information is 3.6%, which is even higher than the improvement that involves the use of the best ANN (2.6%)

Energy rating of a water pumping station using multivariate analysis

Among water management policies, the preservation and the saving of energy demand in water supply and treatment systems play key roles. When focusing on energy, the customary metric to determine the performance of water supply systems is linked to the definition of component-based energy indicators. This approach is unfit to account for interactions occurring among system elements or between the system and its environment. On the other hand, the development of information technology has led to the availability of increasing large amount of data, typically gathered from distributed sensor networks in so-called smart grids. In this context, data intensive methodologies address the possibility of using complex network modeling approaches, and advocate the issues related to the interpretation and analysis of large amount of data produced by smart sensor networks. In this perspective, the present work aims to use data intensive techniques in the energy analysis of a water management network. The purpose is to provide new metrics for the energy rating of the system and to be able to provide insights into the dynamics of its operations. The study applies neural network as a tool to predict energy demand, when using flowrate and vibration data as predictor variables