Stochastic optimization of staffing for multiskill call centers

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions le problème d’optimisation des effectifs dans les centres d’appels, dans lequel nous visons à minimiser les coûts d’exploitation tout en offrant aux clients une qualité de service (QoS) élevée. Nous introduisons également l'utilisation de contraintes probabilistes qui exigent que la qualité de service soit satisfaite avec une probabilité donnée. Ces contraintes sont adéquates dans le cas où la performance est mesurée sur un court intervalle de temps, car les mesures de QoS sont des variables aléatoires sur une période donnée. Les problèmes de personnel proposés sont difficiles en raison de l'absence de forme analytique pour les contraintes probabilistes et doivent être approximées par simulation. En outre, les fonctions QoS sont généralement non linéaires et non convexes. Nous considérons les problèmes d’affectation personnel dans différents contextes et étudions les modèles proposés tant du point de vue théorique que pratique. Les méthodologies développées sont générales, en ce sens qu'elles peuvent être adaptées et appliquées à d'autres problèmes de décision dans les systèmes de files d'attente. La thèse comprend trois articles traitant de différents défis en matière de modélisation et de résolution de problèmes d'optimisation d’affectation personnel dans les centres d'appels à compétences multiples. Les premier et deuxième article concernent un problème d'optimisation d'affectation de personnel en deux étapes sous l'incertitude. Alors que dans le second, nous étudions un modèle général de programmation stochastique discrète en deux étapes pour fournir une garantie théorique de la consistance de l'approximation par moyenne échantillonnale (SAA) lorsque la taille des échantillons tend vers l'infini, le troisième applique l'approche du SAA pour résoudre le problème d’optimisation d'affectation de personnel en deux étapes avec les taux d’arrivée incertain. Les deux articles indiquent la viabilité de l'approche SAA dans notre contexte, tant du point de vue théorique que pratique. Pour être plus précis, dans le premier article, nous considérons un problème stochastique discret général en deux étapes avec des contraintes en espérance. Nous formulons un problème SAA avec échantillonnage imbriqué et nous montrons que, sous certaines hypothèses satisfaites dans les exemples de centres d'appels, il est possible d'obtenir les solutions optimales du problème initial en résolvant son SAA avec des échantillons suffisamment grands. De plus, nous montrons que la probabilité que la solution optimale du problème de l’échantillon soit une solution optimale du problème initial tend vers un de manière exponentielle au fur et à mesure que nous augmentons la taille des échantillons. Ces résultats théoriques sont importants, non seulement pour les applications de centre d'appels, mais également pour d'autres problèmes de prise de décision avec des variables de décision discrètes. Le deuxième article concerne les méthodes de résolution d'un problème d'affectation en personnel en deux étapes sous incertitude du taux d'arrivée. Le problème SAA étant coûteux à résoudre lorsque le nombre de scénarios est important. En effet, pour chaque scénario, il est nécessaire d'effectuer une simulation pour estimer les contraintes de QoS. Nous développons un algorithme combinant simulation, génération de coupes, renforcement de coupes et décomposition de Benders pour résoudre le problème SAA. Nous montrons l'efficacité de l'approche, en particulier lorsque le nombre de scénarios est grand. Dans le dernier article, nous examinons les problèmes de contraintes en probabilité sur les mesures de niveau de service. Notre méthodologie proposée dans cet article est motivée par le fait que les fonctions de QoS affichent généralement des courbes en S et peuvent être bien approximées par des fonctions sigmoïdes appropriées. Sur la base de cette idée, nous avons développé une nouvelle approche combinant la régression non linéaire, la simulation et la recherche locale par région de confiance pour résoudre efficacement les problèmes de personnel à grande échelle de manière viable. L’avantage principal de cette approche est que la procédure d’optimisation peut être formulée comme une séquence de simulations et de résolutions de problèmes de programmation linéaire. Les résultats numériques basés sur des exemples réels de centres d'appels montrent l'efficacité pratique de notre approche. Les méthodologies développées dans cette thèse peuvent être appliquées dans de nombreux autres contextes, par exemple les problèmes de personnel et de planification dans d'autres systèmes basés sur des files d'attente avec d'autres types de contraintes de QoS. Celles-ci soulèvent également plusieurs axes de recherche qu'il pourrait être intéressant d'étudier. Par exemple, une approche de regroupement de scénarios pour atténuer le coût des modèles d'affectation en deux étapes, ou une version d'optimisation robuste en distribution pour mieux gérer l'incertitude des données.In this thesis, we study the staffing optimization problem in multiskill call centers, in which we aim at minimizing the operating cost while delivering a high quality of service (QoS) to customers. We also introduce the use of chance constraints which require that the QoSs are met with a given probability. These constraints are adequate in the case when the performance is measured over a short time interval as QoS measures are random variables in a given time period. The proposed staffing problems are challenging in the sense that the stochastic constraints have no-closed forms and need to be approximated by simulation. In addition, the QoS functions are typically non-linear and non-convex. We consider staffing optimization problems in different settings and study the proposed models in both theoretical and practical aspects. The methodologies developed are general, in the sense that they can be adapted and applied to other staffing/scheduling problems in queuing-based systems. The thesis consists of three articles dealing with different challenges in modeling and solving staffing optimization problems in multiskill call centers. The first and second articles concern a two-stage staffing optimization problem under uncertainty. While in the first one, we study a general two-stage discrete stochastic programming model to provide a theoretical guarantee for the consistency of the sample average approximation (SAA) when the sample sizes go to infinity, the second one applies the SAA approach to solve the two-stage staffing optimization problem under arrival rate uncertainty. Both papers indicate the viability of the SAA approach in our context, in both theoretical and practical aspects. To be more precise, in the first article, we consider a general two-stage discrete stochastic problem with expected value constraints. We formulate its SAA with nested sampling. We show that under some assumptions that hold in call center examples, one can obtain the optimal solutions of the original problem by solving its SAA with large enough sample sizes. Moreover, we show that the probability that the optimal solution of the sample problem is an optimal solution of the original problem, approaches one exponentially fast as we increase the sample sizes. These theoretical findings are important, not only for call center applications, but also for other decision-making problems with discrete decision variables. The second article concerns solution methods to solve a two-stage staffing problem under arrival rate uncertainty. It is motivated by the fact that the SAA version of the two-stage staffing problem becomes expensive to solve with a large number of scenarios, as for each scenario, one needs to use simulation to approximate the QoS constraints. We develop an algorithm that combines simulation, cut generation, cut strengthening and Benders decomposition to solve the SAA problem. We show the efficiency of the approach, especially when the number of scenarios is large. In the last article, we consider problems with chance constraints on the service level measures. Our methodology proposed in this article is motivated by the fact that the QoS functions generally display ``S-shape'' curves and might be well approximated by appropriate sigmoid functions. Based on this idea, we develop a novel approach that combines non-linear regression, simulation and trust region local search to efficiently solve large-scale staffing problems in a viable way. The main advantage of the approach is that the optimization procedure can be formulated as a sequence of steps of performing simulation and solving linear programming models. Numerical results based on real-life call center examples show the practical viability of our approach. The methodologies developed in this thesis can be applied in many other settings, e.g., staffing and scheduling problems in other queuing-based systems with other types of QoS constraints. These also raise several research directions that might be interesting to investigate. For examples, a clustering approach to mitigate the expensiveness of the two-stage staffing models, or a distributionally robust optimization version to better deal with data uncertainty

Taxonomic classification of planning decisions in health care: a review of the state of the art in OR/MS

We provide a structured overview of the typical decisions to be made in resource capacity planning and control in health care, and a review of relevant OR/MS articles for each planning decision. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, to position the planning decisions, a taxonomy is presented. This taxonomy provides health care managers and OR/MS researchers with a method to identify, break down and classify planning and control decisions. Second, following the taxonomy, for six health care services, we provide an exhaustive specification of planning and control decisions in resource capacity planning and control. For each planning and control decision, we structurally review the key OR/MS articles and the OR/MS methods and techniques that are applied in the literature to support decision making

Strategic Nurse Allocation Policies Under Dynamic Patient Demand

ABSTRACT STRATEGIC NURSE ALLOCATION POLICIES UNDER DYNAMIC PATIENT DEMAND by Osman T. Aydas The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 2017 Under the Supervision of Professor Anthony D. Ross Several studies have shown a strong association between nurse staffing and patient outcomes. When a nursing unit is chronically short-staffed, nurses must maintain an intense pace to ensure that patients receive timely care. Over time this can result in nurse burnout, as well as dissatisfied patients and even medical errors. Improved accuracy in the allocation of nursing staff can mitigate these operational risks and improve patient outcomes. Nursing care is identified as the single biggest factor in both the cost of hospital care and patient satisfaction. Yet, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the current methods of determining nurse staffing levels, including the most common one of using minimum nurse-to-patient ratios. Nurse shortage implications go beyond healthcare quality, extending to health economics as well. In addition, implementation of mandatory nurse-to-patient ratios in some states creates a risk of under- or over-estimating required nurse resources. With this motivation, this dissertation aims to develop methodologies that generate feasible six-week nurse schedules and efficiently assign nurses from various profiles to these schedules while controlling staffing costs and understaffing ratios in the medical unit. First, we develop and test various medium-term staff allocation approaches using mixed-integer optimization and compare their performance with respect to a hypothetical full information scenario. Second, using stochastic integer programming approach, we develop a short-term staffing level adjustment model under a sizable list of patient admission scenarios. We begin by providing an overview of the organization of the dissertation. Chapter 1 presents the problem context and we provide research questions for this dissertation. Chapter 2 provides a review of the literature on nurse staffing and scheduling specifically from the Operations Management journals. We introduce the challenges of nursing care and nurse scheduling practices. We identify major research areas and solution approaches. This is followed by a discussion of the complexities associated with computing nursing requirements and creating rosters. Staffing requirements are the result of a complex interaction between care-unit sizes, nurse-to-patient ratios, bed census distributions, and quality-of-care requirements. Therefore, we review the literature on nursing workload measurement approaches because workloads depend highly on patient arrivals and lengths of stay, both of which can vary greatly. Thus, predicting these workloads and staffing nurses accordingly are essential to guaranteeing quality of care in a cost-effective manner. For completeness, a brief review of the literature on workforce planning and scheduling that is linked to the nurse staffing and scheduling problem is also provided. Chapter 3 develops a framework for estimating the daily number of nurses required in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Many patient care units, including ICUs, find it difficult to accurately estimate the number of nurses needed. One factor contributing to this difficulty is not having a decision support tool to understand the distribution of admissions to healthcare facilities. We statistically evaluate the existing staff allocation system of an ICU using clinical operational data, then develop a predictive model for estimating the number of admissions to the unit. We analyze clinical operational data covering 44 months for three wards of a pediatric ICU. The existing staff allocation model does not accurately estimate the required number of nurses required. This is due in part to not understanding the pattern and frequency of admissions, particularly those which are not known 12 hours in advance. We show that these “unknown” admissions actually follow a Poisson distribution. Thus, we can more accurately estimate the number of admissions overall. Analytical predictive methods that complement intuition and experience can help to decrease unplanned requirements for nurses and recommend more efficient nurse allocations. The model developed here can be inferred to estimate admissions for other intensive care units, such as pediatric facilities. Chapter 4 examines an integrated nurse staffing and scheduling model for a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). This model is targeted to recommend initial staffing plans and schedules for a six-week horizon given a variety of nurse groups and nursing shift assignment types in the PICU. Nurse rostering is an NP-hard combinatorial problem, which makes it extremely difficult to efficiently solve life-sized problems due to their complexity. Usually, real problem instances have complicated work rules related to safety and quality of service issues, as well as preferences of the personnel. To avoid the size and complexity limitations, we generate feasible nurse schedules for the full-time equivalent (FTE) nurses, using algorithms that will be employed in the mixed-integer programming models we develop. Pre-generated schedules eliminate the increased number of constraints, and reduce the number of decision variables of the integrated nurse staffing and scheduling model. We also include a novel methodology for estimating nurse workloads by considering the patient, and individual patient’s acuity, and activity in the unit. When the nursing administration prepares the medium-term nurse schedules for the next staffing cycle (six weeks in our study), one to two months before the actual patient demand realizations, it typically uses a general average staffing level for the nursing care needs in the medical units. Using our mixed-integer optimization model, we examine fixed vs. dynamic medium-term nurse staffing and scheduling policy options for the medical units. In the fixed staffing option, the medical unit is staffed by a fixed number of nurses throughout the staffing horizon. In the dynamic staffing policy, we propose, historical patient demand data enables us to suggest a non-stationary staffing scheme. We compare the performance of both nurse allocation policy options, in terms of cost savings and understaffing ratios, with the optimal staffing scheme reached by the actual patient data. As a part of our experimental design, we evaluate our optimization model for the three medical units of the PICU in the “as-is” state. In Chapter 5, we conduct two-stage short-term staffing adjustments for the upcoming nursing shift. Our proposed adjustments are first used at the beginning of each nursing shift for the upcoming 4-hour shift. Then, after observing actual patient demand for nursing at the start of the next shift, we make our final staffing adjustments to meet the patient demand for nursing. We model six different adjustment options for the two-stage stochastic programming model (five options available as first-stage decisions and one option available as the second-stage decision). Because the adjustment horizon is less than 12 hours, the current patient census, patient acuity, and the number of scheduled admissions/discharges in the current and upcoming shift are known to the unit nurse manager. We develop a two-stage stochastic integer programming model which will minimize total nurse staffing costs (and the cost of adjustments to the original schedules developed in the medium-term planning phase) while ensuring adequate coverage of nursing demand. Chapter 6 provides conclusions from the study and identify both limitations and future research directions

Scheduling Workforce Relief Breaks In Advance Versus In Real-Time

This paper focuses upon employee rest breaks, or reliefs, in workforce scheduling. Historically, the workforce scheduling literature has largely ignored reliefs, as less than 18% of the 64 papers we surveyed scheduled reliefs. The argument has been that one need not schedule reliefs in advance, since they can easily be scheduled in real-time. We find this argument to be flawed. We show that failing to schedule reliefs in advance will have one of two undesirable outcomes. First, there will be a less profitable deployment of labor should all reliefs actually be taken in real-time. Second, if some reliefs are never assigned or if relief-timing restrictions are relaxed so that more reliefs may be assigned in real-time, there will be a disgruntled and less productive workforce and perhaps violations of contractual obligations. Our findings are supported by anecdotal evidence drawn from commercial labor scheduling software

A two-stage stochastic integer programming approach to integrated staffing and scheduling with application to nurse management

We study the problem of integrated staffing and scheduling under demand uncertainty. This problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic integer program with mixed-integer recourse. The here-and-now decision is to find initial staffing levels and schedules. The wait-and-see decision is to adjust these schedules at a time closer to the actual date of demand realization. We show that the mixed-integer rounding inequalities for the second-stage problem convexify the recourse function. As a result, we present a tight formulation that describes the convex hull of feasible solutions in the second stage. We develop a modified multicut approach in an integer L-shaped algorithm with a prioritized branching strategy. We generate twenty instances (each with more than 1.3 million integer and 4 billion continuous variables) of the staffing and scheduling problem using 3.5 years of patient volume data from Northwestern Memorial Hospital. Computational results show that the efficiency gained from the convexification of the recourse function is further enhanced by our modifications to the L-shaped method. The results also show that compared with a deterministic model, the two-stage stochastic model leads to a significant cost savings. The cost savings increase with mean absolute percentage errors in the patient volume forecast

An Integrated Approach for Shift Scheduling and Rostering Problems with Break Times for Inbound Call Centers

It may be very difficult to achieve the optimal shift schedule in call centers which have highly uncertain and peaked demand during short time periods. Overlapping shift systems are usually designed for such cases. This paper studies shift scheduling and rostering problems for in bound call centers where overlapping shift systems are used. An integer programming model that determines which shifts to be opened and how many operators to be assigned to these shifts is proposed for the shift scheduling problem. For the rostering problem both integer programming and constraint programming models are developed to determine assignments of operators to all shifts, weekly days-off, and meal and relief break times of the operators. The proposed models are tested on real data supplied by an outsource call center and optimal results are found in an acceptable computation time. An improvement of 15% in the objective function compared to the current situation is observed with the proposed model for the shift scheduling problem. The computational performances of the proposed integer and constraint programming models for the rostering problem are compared using real data observed at a call center and simulated test instances. In addition, benchmark instances are used to compare our Constraint Programming (CP) approach with the existing models. The results of the comprehensive computational study indicate that the constraint programming model runs more efficiently than the integer programming model for the rostering problem. The originality of this research can be attributed to two contributions: (a) a model for shift scheduling problem and two models for rostering problem are presented in detail and compared using real data and (b) the rostering problem is considered as a task-resource allocation and considerably shorter computation times are obtained by modeling this new problem via CP