Buzz Tweet Classification Based on Text and Image Features of Tweets Using Multi-Task Learning

This study investigates social media trends and proposes a buzz tweet classification method to explore the factors causing the buzz phenomenon on Twitter. It is difficult to identify the causes of the buzz phenomenon based solely on texts posted on Twitter. It is expected that by limiting the tweets to those with attached images and using the characteristics of the images and the relationships between the text and images, a more detailed analysis than that of with text-only tweets can be conducted. Therefore, an analysis method was devised based on a multi-task neural network that uses both the features extracted from the image and text as input and the buzz class (buzz/non-buzz) and the number of “likes (favorites)” and “retweets (RTs)” as output. The predictions made using a single feature of the text and image were compared with the predictions using a combination of multiple features. The differences between buzz and non-buzz features were analyzed based on the cosine similarity between the text and the image. The buzz class was correctly identified with a correctness rate of approximately 80% for all combinations of image and text features, with the combination of BERT and VGG16 providing the highest correctness rate

Influence of social media on performance of movies

"May 2014."Thesis advisor: Dr. Wenjun Zeng.Includes bibliographical references (pages 51-53)

On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.Comment: 10 pages, 10 tables, 8 figure

Using Consumer-Generated Social Media Posts to Improve Forecasts of Television Premiere Viewership: Extending Diffusion of Innovation Theory

Billions of US dollars in transactions occur each year between media companies and advertisers purchasing commercials on television shows to reach target demographics. This study investigates how consumer enthusiasm can be quantified (via social media posts) as an input to improve forecast models of television series premiere viewership beyond inputs that are typically used in the entertainment industry. Results support that Twitter activity (volume of tweets and retweets) is a driver of consumer viewership of unscripted programs (i.e., reality or competition shows). As such, incorporating electronic word of mouth (eWOM) into forecasting models improves accuracy for predictions of unscripted shows. Furthermore, trend analysis suggests it is possible to calculate a forecast as early as 14 days prior to the premiere date. This research also extends the Diffusion of Innovation theory and diffusion modeling by applying them in the television entertainment environment. Evidence was found supporting Rogers’s (2003) heterophilous communication, also referred to by Granovetter (1973) as “weak ties.” Further, despite a diffusion pattern that differs from other categories, entertainment consumption demonstrates evidence of a mass media (external) channel and an interpersonal eWOM (internal) channel