Impact of noise on a dynamical system: prediction and uncertainties from a swarm-optimized neural network

In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed for the time series prediction. The hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was applied on Mackey--Glass chaotic time series in the short-term $x(t+6)$. The performance prediction was evaluated and compared with another studies available in the literature. Also, we presented properties of the dynamical system via the study of chaotic behaviour obtained from the predicted time series. Next, the hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was complemented with a Gaussian stochastic procedure (called {\it stochastic} hybrid ANN+PSO) in order to obtain a new estimator of the predictions, which also allowed us to compute uncertainties of predictions for noisy Mackey--Glass chaotic time series. Thus, we studied the impact of noise for several cases with a white noise level ($\sigma_{N}$) from 0.01 to 0.1.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

A new particle swarm optimization algorithm for neural network optimization

This paper presents a new particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for tuning parameters (weights) of neural networks. The new PSO algorithm is called fuzzy logic-based particle swarm optimization with cross-mutated operation (FPSOCM), where the fuzzy inference system is applied to determine the inertia weight of PSO and the control parameter of the proposed cross-mutated operation by using human knowledge. By introducing the fuzzy system, the value of the inertia weight becomes variable. The cross-mutated operation is effectively force the solution to escape the local optimum. Tuning parameters (weights) of neural networks is presented using the FPSOCM. Numerical example of neural network is given to illustrate that the performance of the FPSOCM is good for tuning the parameters (weights) of neural networks

Adaptive particle swarm optimization

An adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO) that features better search efficiency than classical particle swarm optimization (PSO) is presented. More importantly, it can perform a global search over the entire search space with faster convergence speed. The APSO consists of two main steps. First, by evaluating the population distribution and particle fitness, a real-time evolutionary state estimation procedure is performed to identify one of the following four defined evolutionary states, including exploration, exploitation, convergence, and jumping out in each generation. It enables the automatic control of inertia weight, acceleration coefficients, and other algorithmic parameters at run time to improve the search efficiency and convergence speed. Then, an elitist learning strategy is performed when the evolutionary state is classified as convergence state. The strategy will act on the globally best particle to jump out of the likely local optima. The APSO has comprehensively been evaluated on 12 unimodal and multimodal benchmark functions. The effects of parameter adaptation and elitist learning will be studied. Results show that APSO substantially enhances the performance of the PSO paradigm in terms of convergence speed, global optimality, solution accuracy, and algorithm reliability. As APSO introduces two new parameters to the PSO paradigm only, it does not introduce an additional design or implementation complexity

A Comparison of Selected Modifications of the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

We compare 27 modifications of the original particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The analysis evaluated nine basic PSO types, which differ according to the swarm evolution as controlled by various inertia weights and constriction factor. Each of the basic PSO modifications was analyzed using three different distributed strategies. In the first strategy, the entire swarm population is considered as one unit (OC-PSO), the second strategy periodically partitions the population into equally large complexes according to the particle’s functional value (SCE-PSO), and the final strategy periodically splits the swarm population into complexes using random permutation (SCERand-PSO). All variants are tested using 11 benchmark functions that were prepared for the special session on real-parameter optimization of CEC 2005. It was found that the best modification of the PSO algorithm is a variant with adaptive inertia weight. The best distribution strategy is SCE-PSO, which gives better results than do OC-PSO and SCERand-PSO for seven functions. The sphere function showed no significant difference between SCE-PSO and SCERand-PSO. It follows that a shuffling mechanism improves the optimization process

Improved particle swarm optimization algorithms for economic load dispatch considering electric market

Economic load dispatch problem under the competitive electric market (ELDCEM) is becoming a hot problem that receives a big interest from researchers. A lot of measures are proposed to deal with the problem. In this paper, three versions of PSO method such as conventional particle swarm optimization (PSO), PSO with inertia weight (IWPSO) and PSO with constriction factor (CFPSO) are applied for handling ELDCEM problem. The core duty of the PSO methods is to determine the most optimal power output of generators to obtain total profit as much as possible for generation companies without violation of constraints. These methods are tested on three and ten-unit systems considering payment model for power delivered and different constraints. Results obtained from the PSO methods are compared with each other to evaluate the effectiveness and robustness. As results, IWPSO method is superior to other methods. Besides, comparing the PSO methods with other reported methods also gives a conclusion that IWPSO method is a very strong tool for solving ELDCEM problem because it can obtain the highest profit, fast converge speed and simulation time

Particle Swarm Optimization: Basic Concepts, Variants and Applications in Power Systems

Many areas in power systems require solving one or more nonlinear optimization problems. While analytical methods might suffer from slow convergence and the curse of dimensionality, heuristics-based swarm intelligence can be an efficient alternative. Particle swarm optimization (PSO), part of the swarm intelligence family, is known to effectively solve large-scale nonlinear optimization problems. This paper presents a detailed overview of the basic concepts of PSO and its variants. Also, it provides a comprehensive survey on the power system applications that have benefited from the powerful nature of PSO as an optimization technique. For each application, technical details that are required for applying PSO, such as its type, particle formulation (solution representation), and the most efficient fitness functions are also discussed

Nature-inspired algorithms for solving some hard numerical problems

Optimisation is a branch of mathematics that was developed to find the optimal solutions, among all the possible ones, for a given problem. Applications of optimisation techniques are currently employed in engineering, computing, and industrial problems. Therefore, optimisation is a very active research area, leading to the publication of a large number of methods to solve specific problems to its optimality. This dissertation focuses on the adaptation of two nature inspired algorithms that, based on optimisation techniques, are able to compute approximations for zeros of polynomials and roots of non-linear equations and systems of non-linear equations. Although many iterative methods for finding all the roots of a given function already exist, they usually require: (a) repeated deflations, that can lead to very inaccurate results due to the problem of accumulating rounding errors, (b) good initial approximations to the roots for the algorithm converge, or (c) the computation of first or second order derivatives, which besides being computationally intensive, it is not always possible. The drawbacks previously mentioned served as motivation for the use of Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for root-finding, since they are known, respectively, for their ability to explore high-dimensional spaces (not requiring good initial approximations) and for their capability to model complex problems. Besides that, both methods do not need repeated deflations, nor derivative information. The algorithms were described throughout this document and tested using a test suite of hard numerical problems in science and engineering. Results, in turn, were compared with several results available on the literature and with the well-known Durand–Kerner method, depicting that both algorithms are effective to solve the numerical problems considered.A Optimização é um ramo da matemática desenvolvido para encontrar as soluções óptimas, de entre todas as possíveis, para um determinado problema. Actualmente, são várias as técnicas de optimização aplicadas a problemas de engenharia, de informática e da indústria. Dada a grande panóplia de aplicações, existem inúmeros trabalhos publicados que propõem métodos para resolver, de forma óptima, problemas específicos. Esta dissertação foca-se na adaptação de dois algoritmos inspirados na natureza que, tendo como base técnicas de optimização, são capazes de calcular aproximações para zeros de polinómios e raízes de equações não lineares e sistemas de equações não lineares. Embora já existam muitos métodos iterativos para encontrar todas as raízes ou zeros de uma função, eles usualmente exigem: (a) deflações repetidas, que podem levar a resultados muito inexactos, devido ao problema da acumulação de erros de arredondamento a cada iteração; (b) boas aproximações iniciais para as raízes para o algoritmo convergir, ou (c) o cálculo de derivadas de primeira ou de segunda ordem que, além de ser computacionalmente intensivo, para muitas funções é impossível de se calcular. Estas desvantagens motivaram o uso da Optimização por Enxame de Partículas (PSO) e de Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNAs) para o cálculo de raízes. Estas técnicas são conhecidas, respectivamente, pela sua capacidade de explorar espaços de dimensão superior (não exigindo boas aproximações iniciais) e pela sua capacidade de modelar problemas complexos. Além disto, tais técnicas não necessitam de deflações repetidas, nem do cálculo de derivadas. Ao longo deste documento, os algoritmos são descritos e testados, usando um conjunto de problemas numéricos com aplicações nas ciências e na engenharia. Os resultados foram comparados com outros disponíveis na literatura e com o método de Durand–Kerner, e sugerem que ambos os algoritmos são capazes de resolver os problemas numéricos considerados