Statistical modelling of individual animal movement: an overview of key methods and a discussion of practical challenges

With the influx of complex and detailed tracking data gathered from electronic tracking devices, the analysis of animal movement data has recently emerged as a cottage industry among biostatisticians. New approaches of ever greater complexity are continue to be added to the literature. In this paper, we review what we believe to be some of the most popular and most useful classes of statistical models used to analyse individual animal movement data. Specifically, we consider discrete-time hidden Markov models, more general state-space models and diffusion processes. We argue that these models should be core components in the toolbox for quantitative researchers working on stochastic modelling of individual animal movement. The paper concludes by offering some general observations on the direction of statistical analysis of animal movement. There is a trend in movement ecology towards what are arguably overly complex modelling approaches which are inaccessible to ecologists, unwieldy with large data sets or not based on mainstream statistical practice. Additionally, some analysis methods developed within the ecological community ignore fundamental properties of movement data, potentially leading to misleading conclusions about animal movement. Corresponding approaches, e.g. based on Lévy walk-type models, continue to be popular despite having been largely discredited. We contend that there is a need for an appropriate balance between the extremes of either being overly complex or being overly simplistic, whereby the discipline relies on models of intermediate complexity that are usable by general ecologists, but grounded in well-developed statistical practice and efficient to fit to large data sets

Statistical identification of articulatory roles in speech production.

The human speech apparatus is a rich source of information and offers many cues in the speech signal due to its biomechanical constraints and physiological interdependencies. Coarticulation, a direct consequence of these speech production factors, is one of the main problems affecting the performance of speech systems. Incorporation of production knowledge could potentially benefit speech recognisers and synthesisers. Hand coded rules and scores derived from the phonological knowledge used by production oriented models of speech are simple and incomplete representations of the complex speech production process. Statistical models built from measurements of speech articulation fail to identify the cause of constraints. There is a need for building explanatory yet descriptive models of articulation for understanding and modelling the effects of coarticulation. This thesis aims at providing compact descriptive models of realistic speech articulation by identifying and capturing the essential characteristics of human articulators using measurements from electro-magnetic articulography. The constraints on articulators during speech production are identified in the form of critical, dependent and redundant roles using entirely statistical and data-driven methods. The critical role captures the maximally constrained target driven behaviour of an articulator. The dependent role models the partial constraints due to physiological interdependencies. The redundant role reflects the unconstrained behaviour of an articulator which is maximally prone to coarticulation. Statistical target models are also obtained as the by-product of the identified roles. The algorithm for identification of articulatory roles (and estimation of respective model distributions) for each phone is presented and the results are critically evaluated. The identified data-driven constraints obtained are compared with the well known and commonly used constraints derived from the IPA (International Phonetic Alphabet). The identified critical roles were not only in agreement with the place and manner descriptions of each phone but also provided a phoneme to phone transformation by capturing language and speaker specific behaviour of articulators. The models trained from the identified constraints fitted better to the phone distributions (40% improvement) . The evaluation of the proposed search procedure with respect to an exhaustive search for identification of roles demonstrated that the proposed approach performs equally well for much less computational load. Articulation models built in the planning stage using sparse yet efficient articulatory representations using standard trajectory generation techniques showed some potential in modelling articulatory behaviour. Plenty of scope exists for further developing models of articulation from the proposed framework

Automatic detection of sociolinguistic variation using forced alignment

Forced alignment software is now widely used in contemporary sociolinguistics, and is quickly becoming a crucial methodological tool as an increasing number of studies begin to utilise ‘big data.’ This study investigates the possibility of taking forced alignment one step further towards the goal of complete automation; specifically, it expands the functionality of FAVE-align to fully automate the coding of three sociolinguistic variables in British English: (th)-fronting, (td)-deletion, and (h)-dropping. This involved the expansion of pronouncing dictionaries to reflect the surface output of these variable rules; FAVE then compares the fit of competing acoustic models with the speech signal to determine the surface variant. It does so with an impressive degree of accuracy, largely comparable to inter-transcriber agreement for all variables; however, the pattern of its mistakes, which are largely false positives, suggests a difficulty in identifying the voiceless segments of (td) and (th). Although it is reassuring that inter-transcriber agreement was also lowest for these tokens, it should be noted that FAVE’s accuracy decreases in faster speech rates while no comparable effect is found for agreement among human transcribers