Demand Forecasting Tool For Inventory Control Smart Systems

With the availability of data and the increasing capabilities of data processing tools, many businesses are leveraging historical sales and demand data to implement smart inventory management systems. Demand forecasting is the process of estimating the consumption of products or services for future time periods. It plays an important role in the field of inventory control and Supply Chain, since it enables production and supply planning and therefore can reduce delivery times and optimize Supply Chain decisions. This paper presents an extensive literature review about demand forecasting methods for time-series data. Based on analysis results and findings, a new demand forecasting tool for inventory control is proposed. First, a forecasting pipeline is designed to allow selecting the most accurate demand forecasting method. The validation of the proposed solution is executed on Stock&Buy case study, a growing online retail platform. For this reason, two new methods are proposed: (1) a hybrid method, Comb-TSB, is proposed for intermittent and lumpy demand patterns. Comb- TSB automatically selects the most accurate model among a set of methods. (2) a clustering-based approach (ClustAvg) is proposed to forecast demand for new products which have very few or no sales history data. The evaluation process showed that the proposed tool achieves good forecasting accuracy by making the most appropriate choice while defining the forecasting method to apply for each product selection

Unsupervised Intrusion Detection with Cross-Domain Artificial Intelligence Methods

Cybercrime is a major concern for corporations, business owners, governments and citizens, and it continues to grow in spite of increasing investments in security and fraud prevention. The main challenges in this research field are: being able to detect unknown attacks, and reducing the false positive ratio. The aim of this research work was to target both problems by leveraging four artificial intelligence techniques. The first technique is a novel unsupervised learning method based on skip-gram modeling. It was designed, developed and tested against a public dataset with popular intrusion patterns. A high accuracy and a low false positive rate were achieved without prior knowledge of attack patterns. The second technique is a novel unsupervised learning method based on topic modeling. It was applied to three related domains (network attacks, payments fraud, IoT malware traffic). A high accuracy was achieved in the three scenarios, even though the malicious activity significantly differs from one domain to the other. The third technique is a novel unsupervised learning method based on deep autoencoders, with feature selection performed by a supervised method, random forest. Obtained results showed that this technique can outperform other similar techniques. The fourth technique is based on an MLP neural network, and is applied to alert reduction in fraud prevention. This method automates manual reviews previously done by human experts, without significantly impacting accuracy

WeVoS-ViSOM: an ensemble summarization algorithm for enhanced data visualization

This study presents a novel version of the Visualization Induced Self-Organizing Map based on the application of a new fusion algorithm for summarizing the results of an ensemble of topology-preserving mapping models. The algorithm is referred to as Weighted Voting Superposition (WeVoS). Its main feature is the preservation of the topology of the map, in order to obtain the most accurate possible visualization of the data sets under study. To do so, a weighted voting process between the units of the maps in the ensemble takes place, in order to determine the characteristics of the units of the resulting map. Several different quality measures are applied to this novel neural architecture known as WeVoS-ViSOM and the results are analyzed, so as to present a thorough study of its capabilities. To complete the study, it has also been compared with the well-know SOM and its fusion version, with the WeVoS-SOM and with two other previously devised fusion Fusion by Euclidean Distance and Fusion by Voronoi Polygon Similarity—based on the analysis of the same quality measures in order to present a complete analysis of its capabilities. All three summarization methods were applied to three widely used data sets from the UCI Repository. A rigorous performance analysis clearly demonstrates that the novel fusion algorithm outperforms the other single and summarization methods in terms of data sets visualizationThis research has been partially supported through projects CIT-020000-2008-2 and CIT-020000-2009-12 of the Spanish Ministry of Education and Innovation and project BUO06A08 of the Junta of Castilla and Leon. The authors would also like to thank the manufacturer of components for vehicle interiors, Grupo Antolin Ingenieria, S.A. within the framework of the MAGNO2008-1028 CENIT project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovatio