A Brief Survey of Some Relevant Philosophy of Science

This briefly reviews some philosophy of science that might be relevant to simulating the social processes of science. It also includes a couple of examples from the sociology of science because these are inextricable from the philosophy.Philosophy, Science, Simulation, Social Processes, Evolutionary Models, Sociology

Industry views on water resources planning methods – prospects for change in England and Wales

This paper describes a qualitative study of practitioner perspectives on regulated water resources planning practice in England and Wales. The study focuses on strengths and weaknesses of existing practice and the case for change towards a risk-based approach informed by stochastic modelling assessments. In-depth, structured interviews were conducted to capture the views of planners, regulators and consultants closely involved in the planning process. We found broad agreement that the existing water availability assessment methods are fallible; they lack transparency, are often highly subjective and may fail to adequately expose problems of resilience. While most practitioners believe these issues warrant a more detailed examination of risk in the planning process, few believe there is a strong case for a fundamental shift towards risk-based planning informed by stochastic modelling assessments. The study identifies perceived business risks associated with change and exposes widespread scepticism of stochastic methods

'Behavioural System Dynamics': a very tentative and slightly sceptical map of the territory

In this piece, I consider the paper by Stouten et al. (2017) in terms of behavioural science. I first consider what, in broad terms, a ‘behavioural turn’ might offer System Dynamics (SD) and then explore in more detail the scope of the territory within which a behavioural approach to SD might be useful

Outreach in Archaeology with Agent-Based Modeling: Part 3 of 3

A major challenge facing archaeologists is communicating our research to the public. Thankfully, new computational tools have enabled the testing and visualization of complex ideas in an easily packageable format. In this article we illustrate not only how agent-based modeling provides a platform for communicating complex ideas, but also how these game-like computer models can be explored and manipulated by members of the public therefore increasing their engagement in archaeological explanations. We suggest that these new digital tools serve as an excellent aid for education on the importance of archaeological sites and artifacts. To illustrate the above we walk the reader through a step-by-step pipeline of how to run an ABM model as an experiment and how to export it into a form ready to be sent to SHPO and THPO offices in tandem with reports. Ultimately, we hope that this work will help demystify the computational archaeology process and lead to more fluency in using agent-based modeling in research and outreach

Communicating complex ecological models to non-scientist end users

Complex computer models are used to predict how ecological systems respond to changing environ- mental conditions or management actions. Communicating these complex models to non-scientists is challenging, but necessary, because decision-makers and other end users need to understand, accept, and use the models and their predictions. Despite the importance of communicating effectively with end users, there is little guidance available as to how this may be achieved. Here, we review the challenges typically encountered by modellers attempting to communicate complex models and their outputs to managers and other non-scientist end users. We discuss the implications of failing to communicate effec- tively in each case. We then suggest a general approach for communicating with non-scientist end users. We detail the specific elements to be communicated using the example of individual-based models, which are widely used in ecology. We demonstrate that despite their complexity, individual-based models have characteristics that can facilitate communication with non-scientists. The approach we propose is based on our experiences and methods used in other fields, but which until now have not been synthesised or made broadly available to ecologists. Our aim is to facilitate the process of communicating with end users of complex models and encourage more modellers to engage in it by providing a structured approach to the communication process. We argue that developing measures of the effectiveness of communication with end users will help increase the impact of complex models in ecology

Towards improved handling of uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis: addressing the ‘price-quality’ and ‘communication’ dilemmas

An important limitation of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the inherent uncertainty in estimations of future welfare effects. In this paper, we argue that consideration of the ‘pricequality’ dilemma and the ‘communication’ dilemma is useful to explain and improve the handling of uncertainty in CBA. The ‘price-quality’ dilemma refers to the trade-off between the quality of welfare effect estimations and the costs of providing these estimations. Instruments to produce good quality effect estimates (including uncertainties) can be expensive both in monetary terms and time. We discuss the application of probabilistic traffic models as a promising example of how the ‘price-quality’ dilemma can be solved. The ‘communication’ dilemma refers to the observation that both a poor communication and a too prominent communication of uncertainties can cause problems for decision-makers. We argue that cognitive psychological theory provides useful perspectives to solve this dilemma, by providing a psychological framework which might help to explain why different types of people process CBA information differently. The results of this research may enhance first insights into the questions how the two dilemmas can be solved

Changing minds about minds: Evidence that people are too sceptical about animal sentience

Our relationships with other animals are governed by how we view their capacity for sentience and suffering. However, there is currently little agreement as to whether people's beliefs about animal minds are largely accurate or inaccurate. We used an innovative task to examine how people update their beliefs in response to noisy but informative clues about animal minds. This allowed us to compare participants' posterior beliefs to what a normative participant ought to believe if they conform to Bayes' theorem. Five studies (four pre-registered; n = 2417) found that participants shifted their beliefs too far in response to clues that suggested animals do not have minds (i.e., overshooting what a normative participant ought to believe), but not far enough in response to clues that suggested animals have minds (i.e., falling short of what a normative participant ought to believe). A final study demonstrated that this effect was attenuated when humans were the targets of belief. The findings demonstrate that people underestimate animal minds in a way that can be said to be inaccurate and highlight the role of belief updating in downplaying evidence of animal minds. The findings are discussed in relation to speciesist beliefs about the supremacy of humans over animals

When Do Groups Get It Right? On the Epistemic Performance of Voting and Deliberation

This paper examines the claim that democratic decision making is epistemically valuable. Focussing on communication and voting, circumstances are identified under which groups are able to reliably identify the ‘correct alternative.’ Employing formal models from social epistemology, group performance under varying conditions in a simple epistemic task is scrutinized. Simulation results show that larger majority requirements can favour the veto power of closed-minded individuals, but can also increase precision in well-functioning groups. Reasonable scepticism against other people's opinions can provide a useful impediment to overly quick convergence onto a false consensus when independent information acquisition is possible

Getting back to the future: the role of management services in the alpha - beta generations

In an article published in Management Services Journal almost 25 years ago, the reported results of an industry study concluded that for most organisations, improvement initiatives and interventions had failed, wholly or partially, to deliver on their promise. One wonders if the results would be the same today? After reading the article once again, the problems of some of today’s businesses seem to have changed very little. But arguably, the future will be very different. Moreover, the role of management services and our practitioner skills will be in much greater need. Saying that, what will the future be recognised for? Can we predict with any confidence the next generation’s needs – the alpha-beta generations? How will society, business and commerce change from that of today? What are the likely scenarios

Critical learning incidents in system dynamics modelling engagements

This paper reports in-depth behavioural operational research to explore how individual clients learned to resolve dynamically complex problems in system dynamics model-based engagements. Consultant-client dyads were interviewed in ten system dynamics consulting engagements to identify individual clients' Critical Learning Incidents—defined as the moment of surprise caused after one's mental model produces unexpected failure and a change in one’s mental model produces the desired result. The cases are reprised from interviews and include assessments of the nature of the engagement problem, the form of system dynamics model, and the methods employed by consultants during each phase of the engagement. Reported Critical Learning Incidents are noted by engagement phase and consulting method, and constructivist learning theory is used to describe a pattern of learning. Outcomes of the research include describing the role of different methods applied in engagement phases (for example, the role of concept models to commence problem identification and to introduce iconography and jargon to the engagement participants), how model form associates with timings of Critical Learning Incidents, and the role of social mediation and negotiation in the learning process