A Closed-Form Filter for Binary Time Series

Non-Gaussian state-space models arise in several applications. Within this framework, the binary time series setting is a source of constant interest due to its relevance in many studies. However, unlike Gaussian state-space models, where filtering, predictive and smoothing distributions are available in closed-form, binary state-space models require approximations or sequential Monte Carlo strategies for inference and prediction. This is due to the apparent absence of conjugacy between the Gaussian states and the likelihood induced by the observation equation for the binary data. In this article we prove that the filtering, predictive and smoothing distributions in dynamic probit models with Gaussian state variables are, in fact, available and belong to a class of unified skew-normals (SUN) whose parameters can be updated recursively in time via analytical expressions. Also the functionals of these distributions depend on known functions, but their calculation requires intractable numerical integration. Leveraging the SUN properties, we address this point via new Monte Carlo methods based on independent and identically distributed samples from the smoothing distribution, which can naturally be adapted to the filtering and predictive case, thereby improving state-of-the-art approximate or sequential Monte Carlo inference in small-to-moderate dimensional studies. A scalable and optimal particle filter which exploits the SUN properties is also developed to deal with online inference in high dimensions. Performance gains over competitors are outlined in a real-data financial application

On particle filters in radar target tracking

The dissertation focused on the research, implementation, and evaluation of particle filters for radar target track filtering of a maneuvering target, through quantitative simulations and analysis thereof. Target track filtering, also called target track smoothing, aims to minimize the error between a radar target's predicted and actual position. From the literature it had been suggested that particle filters were more suitable for filtering in non-linear/non-Gaussian systems. Furthermore, it had been determined that particle filters were a relatively newer field of research relating to radar target track filtering for non-linear, non-Gaussian maneuvering target tracking problems, compared to the more traditional and widely known and implemented approaches and techniques. The objectives of the research project had been achieved through the development of a software radar target tracking filter simulator, which implemented a sequential importance re-sampling particle filter algorithm and suitable target and noise models. This particular particle filter had been identified from a review of the theory of particle filters. The theory of the more conventional tracking filters used in radar applications had also been reviewed and discussed. The performance of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter for radar target track filtering had been evaluated through quantitative simulations and analysis thereof, using predefined metrics identified from the literature. These metrics had been the root mean squared error metric for accuracy, and the normalized processing time metric for computational complexity. It had been shown that the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter achieved improved accuracy performance in the track filtering of a maneuvering radar target in a non-Gaussian (Laplacian) noise environment, compared to a Gaussian noise environment. It had also been shown that the accuracy performance of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter is a function of the number of particles used in the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter algorithm. The sequential importance re-sampling particle filter had also been compared to two conventional tracking filters, namely the alpha-beta filter and the Singer-Kalman filter, and had better accuracy performance in both cases. The normalized processing time of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter had been shown to be a function of the number of particles used in the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter algorithm. The normalized processing time of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter had been shown to be higher than that of both the alpha-beta filter and the Singer-Kalman filter. Analysis of the posterior Cramér-Rao lower bound of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter had also been conducted and presented in the dissertation

Dirichlet Process Mixtures for Density Estimation in Dynamic Nonlinear Modeling: Application to GPS Positioning in Urban Canyons

International audienceIn global positioning systems (GPS), classical localization algorithms assume, when the signal is received from the satellite in line-of-sight (LOS) environment, that the pseudorange error distribution is Gaussian. Such assumption is in some way very restrictive since a random error in the pseudorange measure with an unknown distribution form is always induced in constrained environments especially in urban canyons due to multipath/masking effects. In order to ensure high accuracy positioning, a good estimation of the observation error in these cases is required. To address this, an attractive flexible Bayesian nonparametric noise model based on Dirichlet process mixtures (DPM) is introduced. Since the considered positioning problem involves elements of non-Gaussianity and nonlinearity and besides, it should be processed on-line, the suitability of the proposed modeling scheme in a joint state/parameter estimation problem is handled by an efficient Rao-Blackwellized particle filter (RBPF). Our approach is illustrated on a data analysis task dealing with joint estimation of vehicles positions and pseudorange errors in a global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based localization context where the GPS information may be inaccurate because of hard reception conditions

Labeling Uncertainty in Multitarget Tracking

In multitarget tracking, the problem of track labeling (assigning labels to tracks) is an ongoing research topic. The existing literature, however, lacks an appropriate measure of uncertainty related to the assigned labels that has a sound mathematical basis as well as clear practical meaning to the user. This is especially important in a situation where well separated targets move in close proximity with each other and thereafter separate again; in such a situation, it is well known that there will be confusion on target identities, also known as "mixed labeling." In this paper, we specify comprehensively the necessary assumptions for a Bayesian formulation of the multitarget tracking and labeling (MTTL) problem to be meaningful. We provide a mathematical characterization of the labeling uncertainties with clear physical interpretation. We also propose a novel labeling procedure that can be used in combination with any existing (unlabeled) MTT algorithm to obtain a Bayesian solution to the MTTL problem. One advantage of the resulting solution is that it readily provides the labeling uncertainty measures. Using the mixed labeling phenomenon in the presence of two targets as our test bed, we show with simulation results that an unlabeled multitarget sequential Monte Carlo (M-SMC) algorithm that employs sequential importance resampling (SIR) augmented with our labeling procedure performs much better than its "naive" extension, the labeled SIR M-SMC filter