From n-grams to n-sets: A Fuzzy-Logic-Based Approach to Shakespearian Authorship Attribution.

This thesis surveys the principles of Fuzzy Logic as they have been applied in the last three decades in the micro-electronic field and, in the context of resolving problems of authorship verification and attribution shows how these principles can assist with the detection of stylistic similarities or dissimilarities of an anonymous, disputed play to an author’s general or patterns-based known style. The main stylistic markers are the counts of semantic sets of 100 individual words-tokens and an index of counts of these words’ frequencies (a cosine index), as found in the first extract of approximately 10,000 words of each of 27 well attributed Shakespearian plays. Based on these markers, their geometrical representation, fuzzy modelling and on thee ground of Set Theory and Boolean Algebra, in the core part of this thesis three Mamdani (Type-1) genre-based Fuzzy Expert Systems were built for the detection of degrees (measured on a scale from 0 to 1) of Shakespearianness of disputed and, probably, co-authored plays of the early modern English period. Each of these three expert systems is composed of seven input and two output variables that are associated through a set of approximately 30 to 40 rules. There is a detailed description of the properties of the three expert systems’ inference mechanisms and the various experimentation phases. There is also an indicative graphical analysis of the phases of the experimentation and a thorough explanation of terms, such as partial truths membership, approximate reasoning and output centroids on an X-axis of a two-dimensional space. Throughout the thesis there is an extensive demonstration of various Fuzzy Logic techniques, including Sugeno-ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system), with which the style of Shakespeare can be modelled in order to compare it with well attributed plays of other authors or plays that are not included in the strict Shakespearian canon of the selected 27 well-attributed, sole authored plays. In addition, other relevant issues of stylometric concern are discussed, such as the investigation and classification of known ‘problem’ and disputed plays through holistic classifiers (irrespective of genre). The results of the experimentation advocate the use of this novel, automated and computer simulation-based method of classification in the stylometric field for various purposes. In fact, the three models have succeeded in detecting the low Shakespearianness of non Shakespearian plays and the results they provided for anonymous, disputed plays are in conformance with the general evidence of historical scholarship. Therefore, the original contribution of this thesis is to define fully functional automated fuzzy classifiers of Shakespearianness. The result of this discovery is that we now know that the principles of fuzzy modelling can be applied for the creation of Fuzzy Expert Stylistic Classifiers and the concomitant detection of degrees of similarity of a play under scrutiny with the general or patterns-based known style of a specific author (in our case, Shakespeare). Furthermore, this thesis shows that, given certain premises, counts of words’ frequencies and counts of semantic sets of words can be employed satisfactorily for stylistic discrimination

Complexity stage model of the medical device development based on economic evaluation-MedDee

The development of a new product is essential for the progress and success of any company. The medical device market is very specific, which is challenging. Therefore, this paper assesses an economic model for medical device evaluation using the economic, health, technology regulatory, and present market knowledge to enable the cost-time conception for any applicant. The purpose of this study is to propose a comprehensive stage model of the medical device development to subsequently describe the financial expenditure of the entire development process. The identification of critical steps was based on the literature review, and analysis, and a comparison of the available medical device development stages and directives. Furthermore, a preliminary assessment of the medical device development steps and procedures on the basis of the interviews was performed. Six interviews were conducted with an average duration of one hour, focusing on areas: relevance and level of detail of the medical device development stages, involvement of economic methods, and applicability of the proposed model. Subsequently, the improvement and modification of the medical device investment process, based on respondents' responses, were conducted. The authors have proposed the complexity model MedDee-Medical Devices Development by Economic Evaluation. This model is comprised of six phases: initiation, concept, design, production, final verification, and market disposition in which the economic methods are incorporated.Web of Science125art. no. 175

Electrical Demand Modeling of a Household at an Appliance/Occupant Level

Ever increasing demand for electricity in the residential sector has made providers implement demand management strategies to curtail residential electricity consumption during peak demand events. With time, customer satisfaction of such programs dropped, resulting in high dropout rates making utilities rethink about the success of such strategies. The future success of how well these strategies could be implemented is highly dependent on how well the providers understand the effect the strategies have on the customers. This in turn, requires them to study occupant and appliance behavior of each household to have a much better understanding of the problem and this information is not readily available. In this research, a discrete event simulation model is proposed (a Non-Homogenous Markov process), that will help simulate appliance and occupant level demand patterns for residential customers in order to allow for the study of consumer-friendly demand response strategies. To develop a valid model, both occupant behavior patterns and appliance level patterns have been combined to form a data-driven simulation process. The model accounts for various factors like climate, day of week, time of day, number of occupants and nature of the appliances used. The model is validated against real hourly smart meter data and the American Time Use Survey using Simio, a simulation package. Validation was conducted in two stages namely a statistical validation stage, where levels of confidence were calculated for the proposed model during different times of day and a more industry-friendly non-parametric stage, where modern clustering techniques were used to gauge how well the proposed model helps simulate the real-world data

Toward a Theory of Multi-Method Modeling and Simulation Approach

The representation via simulation models can easily lead to simulation models too simple for their intended purpose, or with too much detail, making them hard to understand. This problem is related to limitations of the modeling and simulation methods. A multi-method Modeling and Simulation (M&S) approach has the potential for improved representation by taking advantage of methods\u27 strengths and mitigating their weaknesses. Despite a high appeal for using multiple M&S methods, several related problems should be addressed first. The current level of theoretical, methodological, and pragmatic knowledge related to a multi-method M&S approach is limited. It is problematic that there is no clearly identified purpose and definition of the multi-method M&S approach. Theoretical and methodological advances are vital to enhancing the application of a multi-method M&S approach to address a broader range of scientific inquiries, improve quality of research, and enable finding common ground between scientific domains. This dissertation explored theoretical principles and research guidelines of a multi-method M&S approach. The analyzed literature offered perspectives related to the purpose, terms, and research guidelines of a multi-method M&S approach. A pragmatic philosophical stance was used to provide the basis for the choice of terms and definitions relevant to a multi-method M&S approach were proposed. The degrees of falsifiability are adapted to the M&S domain, which allowed for developing complementarity principles as the theoretical basis of a multi-method M&S approach. Next, a blueprint of a multi-method M&S approach called method formats was derived, because transitions toward formats must seek justifications in order to increase research objectivity and transparency. A sample set of methods was explored in the context of a proposed sample set of criteria. None of the methods were evaluated with the maximum score for every criterion, which implied that if all those characteristics were required within a research context, then, none of the methods could provide the highest possible score without combining methods. Finally, a case study that included a multi-method simulation model was developed, providing a data layer for evaluation of complementarity principles. The case study contributed to the credibility of complementarity principles as a reason to use a multi-method M&S approach and value of pseudo-triangulation as a mean of verification of a selected approach

Fuzzy Logic

The capability of Fuzzy Logic in the development of emerging technologies is introduced in this book. The book consists of sixteen chapters showing various applications in the field of Bioinformatics, Health, Security, Communications, Transportations, Financial Management, Energy and Environment Systems. This book is a major reference source for all those concerned with applied intelligent systems. The intended readers are researchers, engineers, medical practitioners, and graduate students interested in fuzzy logic systems

The Camel's Nose Is in the Tent: Rules, Theories, and Slippery Slopes

Slippery slopes have been the topic of a spate of recent literature. In this Article, the authors provide a general theory for understanding and evaluating slippery slope arguments (SSAs) and their associated slippery slope events (SSEs). The central feature of the theory is a structure of discussion within which all arguments take place. The structure is multi-layered, consisting of decisions, rules, theories, and research programs. Each layer influences and shapes the layer beneath: rules influence decisions, theories influence the choice of rules, and research programs influence the choice of theories. In this structure, SSAs take the form of meta-arguments, as they purport to predict the future development of arguments in the structure. Evaluating such arguments requires having knowledge of the specific content of the structure of discussion itself. The Article then presents four viable types of slippery slope argument, draws attention to four different factors that (other things equal) tend to increase the likelihood of slippery slopes, and explores a variety of strategies for coping with slippery slopes.SLIPPERY SLOPE ARGUMENTS; STRUCTURE OF DISCUSSION (ARGUMENT); RULES; UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

Meta-Heuristics Analysis for Technologically Complex Programs: Understanding the Impact of Total Constraints for Schedule, Quality and Cost

Program management data associated with a technically complex radio frequency electronics base communication system has been collected and analyzed to identify heuristics which may be utilized in addition to existing processes and procedures to provide indicators that a program is trending to failure. Analysis of the collected data includes detailed schedule analysis, detailed earned value management analysis and defect analysis within the framework of a Firm Fixed Price (FFP) incentive fee contract. This project develops heuristics and provides recommendations for analysis of complex project management efforts such as those discussed herein. The analysis of the effects of the constraints on management of the program indicate that, unless unambiguous program management controls are applied very early to milestone execution and risk management, then plans, schedules, tasks, and resource allocation will not be successful in controlling the constraints of schedule, quality or cost

Example Based Caricature Synthesis

The likeness of a caricature to the original face image is an essential and often overlooked part of caricature production. In this paper we present an example based caricature synthesis technique, consisting of shape exaggeration, relationship exaggeration, and optimization for likeness. Rather than relying on a large training set of caricature face pairs, our shape exaggeration step is based on only one or a small number of examples of facial features. The relationship exaggeration step introduces two definitions which facilitate global facial feature synthesis. The first is the T-Shape rule, which describes the relative relationship between the facial elements in an intuitive manner. The second is the so called proportions, which characterizes the facial features in a proportion form. Finally we introduce a similarity metric as the likeness metric based on the Modified Hausdorff Distance (MHD) which allows us to optimize the configuration of facial elements, maximizing likeness while satisfying a number of constraints. The effectiveness of our algorithm is demonstrated with experimental results