Short Term Unit Commitment as a Planning Problem

‘Unit Commitment’, setting online schedules for generating units in a power system to ensure supply meets demand, is integral to the secure, efficient, and economic daily operation of a power system. Conflicting desires for security of supply at minimum cost complicate this. Sustained research has produced methodologies within a guaranteed bound of optimality, given sufficient computing time. Regulatory requirements to reduce emissions in modern power systems have necessitated increased renewable generation, whose output cannot be directly controlled, increasing complex uncertainties. Traditional methods are thus less efficient, generating more costly schedules or requiring impractical increases in solution time. Meta-Heuristic approaches are studied to identify why this large body of work has had little industrial impact despite continued academic interest over many years. A discussion of lessons learned is given, and should be of interest to researchers presenting new Unit Commitment approaches, such as a Planning implementation. Automated Planning is a sub-field of Artificial Intelligence, where a timestamped sequence of predefined actions manipulating a system towards a goal configuration is sought. This differs from previous Unit Commitment formulations found in the literature. There are fewer times when a unit’s online status switches, representing a Planning action, than free variables in a traditional formulation. Efficient reasoning about these actions could reduce solution time, enabling Planning to tackle Unit Commitment problems with high levels of renewable generation. Existing Planning formulations for Unit Commitment have not been found. A successful formulation enumerating open challenges would constitute a good benchmark problem for the field. Thus, two models are presented. The first demonstrates the approach’s strength in temporal reasoning over numeric optimisation. The second balances this but current algorithms cannot handle it. Extensions to an existing algorithm are proposed alongside a discussion of immediate challenges and possible solutions. This is intended to form a base from which a successful methodology can be developed

Optimal Planning with State Constraints

In the classical planning model, state variables are assigned values in the initial state and remain unchanged unless explicitly affected by action effects. However, some properties of states are more naturally modelled not as direct effects of actions but instead as derived, in each state, from the primary variables via a set of rules. We refer to those rules as state constraints. The two types of state constraints that will be discussed here are numeric state constraints and logical rules that we will refer to as axioms. When using state constraints we make a distinction between primary variables, whose values are directly affected by action effects, and secondary variables, whose values are determined by state constraints. While primary variables have finite and discrete domains, as in classical planning, there is no such requirement for secondary variables. For example, using numeric state constraints allows us to have secondary variables whose values are real numbers. We show that state constraints are a construct that lets us combine classical planning methods with specialised solvers developed for other types of problems. For example, introducing numeric state constraints enables us to apply planning techniques in domains involving interconnected physical systems, such as power networks. To solve these types of problems optimally, we adapt commonly used methods from optimal classical planning, namely state-space search guided by admissible heuristics. In heuristics based on monotonic relaxation, the idea is that in a relaxed state each variable assumes a set of values instead of just a single value. With state constraints, the challenge becomes to evaluate the conditions, such as goals and action preconditions, that involve secondary variables. We employ consistency checking tools to evaluate whether these conditions are satisfied in the relaxed state. In our work with numerical constraints we use linear programming, while with axioms we use answer set programming and three value semantics. This allows us to build a relaxed planning graph and compute constraint-aware version of heuristics based on monotonic relaxation. We also adapt pattern database heuristics. We notice that an abstract state can be thought of as a state in the monotonic relaxation in which the variables in the pattern hold only one value, while the variables not in the pattern simultaneously hold all the values in their domains. This means that we can apply the same technique for evaluating conditions on secondary variables as we did for the monotonic relaxation and build pattern databases similarly as it is done in classical planning. To make better use of our heuristics, we modify the A* algorithm by combining two techniques that were previously used independently – partial expansion and preferred operators. Our modified algorithm, which we call PrefPEA, is most beneficial in cases where heuristic is expensive to compute, but accurate, and states have many successors

Towards Prescriptive Analytics in Cyber-Physical Systems

More and more of our physical world today is being monitored and controlled by so-called cyber-physical systems (CPSs). These are compositions of networked autonomous cyber and physical agents such as sensors, actuators, computational elements, and humans in the loop. Today, CPSs are still relatively small-scale and very limited compared to CPSs to be witnessed in the future. Future CPSs are expected to be far more complex, large-scale, wide-spread, and mission-critical, and found in a variety of domains such as transportation, medicine, manufacturing, and energy, where they will bring many advantages such as the increased efficiency, sustainability, reliability, and security. To unleash their full potential, CPSs need to be equipped with, among other features, the support for automated planning and control, where computing agents collaboratively and continuously plan and control their actions in an intelligent and well-coordinated manner to secure and optimize a physical process, e.g., electricity flow in the power grid. In today’s CPSs, the control is typically automated, but the planning is solely performed by humans. Unfortunately, it is intractable and infeasible for humans to plan every action in a future CPS due to the complexity, scale, and volatility of a physical process. Due to these properties, the control and planning has to be continuous and automated in future CPSs. Humans may only analyse and tweak the system’s operation using the set of tools supporting prescriptive analytics that allows them (1) to make predictions, (2) to get the suggestions of the most prominent set of actions (decisions) to be taken, and (3) to analyse the implications as if such actions were taken. This thesis considers the planning and control in the context of a large-scale multi-agent CPS. Based on the smart-grid use-case, it presents a so-called PrescriptiveCPS – which is (the conceptual model of) a multi-agent, multi-role, and multi-level CPS automatically and continuously taking and realizing decisions in near real-time and providing (human) users prescriptive analytics tools to analyse and manage the performance of the underlying physical system (or process). Acknowledging the complexity of CPSs, this thesis provides contributions at the following three levels of scale: (1) the level of a (full) PrescriptiveCPS, (2) the level of a single PrescriptiveCPS agent, and (3) the level of a component of a CPS agent software system. At the CPS level, the contributions include the definition of PrescriptiveCPS, according to which it is the system of interacting physical and cyber (sub-)systems. Here, the cyber system consists of hierarchically organized inter-connected agents, collectively managing instances of so-called flexibility, decision, and prescription models, which are short-lived, focus on the future, and represent a capability, an (user’s) intention, and actions to change the behaviour (state) of a physical system, respectively. At the agent level, the contributions include the three-layer architecture of an agent software system, integrating the number of components specially designed or enhanced to support the functionality of PrescriptiveCPS. At the component level, the most of the thesis contribution is provided. The contributions include the description, design, and experimental evaluation of (1) a unified multi-dimensional schema for storing flexibility and prescription models (and related data), (2) techniques to incrementally aggregate flexibility model instances and disaggregate prescription model instances, (3) a database management system (DBMS) with built-in optimization problem solving capability allowing to formulate optimization problems using SQL-like queries and to solve them “inside a database”, (4) a real-time data management architecture for processing instances of flexibility and prescription models under (soft or hard) timing constraints, and (5) a graphical user interface (GUI) to visually analyse the flexibility and prescription model instances. Additionally, the thesis discusses and exemplifies (but provides no evaluations of) (1) domain-specific and in-DBMS generic forecasting techniques allowing to forecast instances of flexibility models based on historical data, and (2) powerful ways to analyse past, current, and future based on so-called hypothetical what-if scenarios and flexibility and prescription model instances stored in a database. Most of the contributions at this level are based on the smart-grid use-case. In summary, the thesis provides (1) the model of a CPS with planning capabilities, (2) the design and experimental evaluation of prescriptive analytics techniques allowing to effectively forecast, aggregate, disaggregate, visualize, and analyse complex models of the physical world, and (3) the use-case from the energy domain, showing how the introduced concepts are applicable in the real world. We believe that all this contribution makes a significant step towards developing planning-capable CPSs in the future.Mehr und mehr wird heute unsere physische Welt überwacht und durch sogenannte Cyber-Physical-Systems (CPS) geregelt. Dies sind Kombinationen von vernetzten autonomen cyber und physischen Agenten wie Sensoren, Aktoren, Rechenelementen und Menschen. Heute sind CPS noch relativ klein und im Vergleich zu CPS der Zukunft sehr begrenzt. Zukünftige CPS werden voraussichtlich weit komplexer, größer, weit verbreiteter und unternehmenskritischer sein sowie in einer Vielzahl von Bereichen wie Transport, Medizin, Fertigung und Energie – in denen sie viele Vorteile wie erhöhte Effizienz, Nachhaltigkeit, Zuverlässigkeit und Sicherheit bringen – anzutreffen sein. Um ihr volles Potenzial entfalten zu können, müssen CPS unter anderem mit der Unterstützung automatisierter Planungs- und Steuerungsfunktionalität ausgestattet sein, so dass Agents ihre Aktionen gemeinsam und kontinuierlich auf intelligente und gut koordinierte Weise planen und kontrollieren können, um einen physischen Prozess wie den Stromfluss im Stromnetz sicherzustellen und zu optimieren. Zwar sind in den heutigen CPS Steuerung und Kontrolle typischerweise automatisiert, aber die Planung wird weiterhin allein von Menschen durchgeführt. Leider ist diese Aufgabe nur schwer zu bewältigen, und es ist für den Menschen schlicht unmöglich, jede Aktion in einem zukünftigen CPS auf Basis der Komplexität, des Umfangs und der Volatilität eines physikalischen Prozesses zu planen. Aufgrund dieser Eigenschaften müssen Steuerung und Planung in CPS der Zukunft kontinuierlich und automatisiert ablaufen. Der Mensch soll sich dabei ganz auf die Analyse und Einflussnahme auf das System mit Hilfe einer Reihe von Werkzeugen konzentrieren können. Derartige Werkzeuge erlauben (1) Vorhersagen, (2) Vorschläge der wichtigsten auszuführenden Aktionen (Entscheidungen) und (3) die Analyse und potentiellen Auswirkungen der zu fällenden Entscheidungen. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Planung und Kontrolle im Rahmen großer Multi-Agent-CPS. Basierend auf dem Smart-Grid als Anwendungsfall wird ein sogenanntes PrescriptiveCPS vorgestellt, welches einem Multi-Agent-, Multi-Role- und Multi-Level-CPS bzw. dessen konzeptionellem Modell entspricht. Diese PrescriptiveCPS treffen und realisieren automatisch und kontinuierlich Entscheidungen in naher Echtzeit und stellen Benutzern (Menschen) Prescriptive-Analytics-Werkzeuge und Verwaltung der Leistung der zugrundeliegenden physischen Systeme bzw. Prozesse zur Verfügung. In Anbetracht der Komplexität von CPS leistet diese Arbeit Beiträge auf folgenden Ebenen: (1) Gesamtsystem eines PrescriptiveCPS, (2) PrescriptiveCPS-Agenten und (3) Komponenten eines CPS-Agent-Software-Systems. Auf CPS-Ebene umfassen die Beiträge die Definition von PrescriptiveCPS als ein System von wechselwirkenden physischen und cyber (Sub-)Systemen. Das Cyber-System besteht hierbei aus hierarchisch organisierten verbundenen Agenten, die zusammen Instanzen sogenannter Flexibility-, Decision- und Prescription-Models verwalten, welche von kurzer Dauer sind, sich auf die Zukunft konzentrieren und Fähigkeiten, Absichten (des Benutzers) und Aktionen darstellen, die das Verhalten des physischen Systems verändern. Auf Agenten-Ebene umfassen die Beiträge die Drei-Ebenen-Architektur eines Agentensoftwaresystems sowie die Integration von Komponenten, die insbesondere zur besseren Unterstützung der Funktionalität von PrescriptiveCPS entwickelt wurden. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit bilden die Beiträge auf der Komponenten-Ebene, diese umfassen Beschreibung, Design und experimentelle Evaluation (1) eines einheitlichen multidimensionalen Schemas für die Speicherung von Flexibility- and Prescription-Models (und verwandten Daten), (2) der Techniken zur inkrementellen Aggregation von Instanzen eines Flexibilitätsmodells und Disaggregation von Prescription-Models, (3) eines Datenbankmanagementsystem (DBMS) mit integrierter Optimierungskomponente, die es erlaubt, Optimierungsprobleme mit Hilfe von SQL-ähnlichen Anfragen zu formulieren und sie „in einer Datenbank zu lösen“, (4) einer Echtzeit-Datenmanagementarchitektur zur Verarbeitung von Instanzen der Flexibility- and Prescription-Models unter (weichen oder harten) Zeitvorgaben und (5) einer grafische Benutzeroberfläche (GUI) zur Visualisierung und Analyse von Instanzen der Flexibility- and Prescription-Models. Darüber hinaus diskutiert und veranschaulicht diese Arbeit beispielhaft ohne detaillierte Evaluation (1) anwendungsspezifische und im DBMS integrierte Vorhersageverfahren, die die Vorhersage von Instanzen der Flexibility- and Prescription-Models auf Basis historischer Daten ermöglichen, und (2) leistungsfähige Möglichkeiten zur Analyse von Vergangenheit, Gegenwart und Zukunft auf Basis sogenannter hypothetischer „What-if“-Szenarien und der in der Datenbank hinterlegten Instanzen der Flexibility- and Prescription-Models. Die meisten der Beiträge auf dieser Ebene basieren auf dem Smart-Grid-Anwendungsfall. Zusammenfassend befasst sich diese Arbeit mit (1) dem Modell eines CPS mit Planungsfunktionen, (2) dem Design und der experimentellen Evaluierung von Prescriptive-Analytics-Techniken, die eine effektive Vorhersage, Aggregation, Disaggregation, Visualisierung und Analyse komplexer Modelle der physischen Welt ermöglichen und (3) dem Anwendungsfall der Energiedomäne, der zeigt, wie die vorgestellten Konzepte in der Praxis Anwendung finden. Wir glauben, dass diese Beiträge einen wesentlichen Schritt in der zukünftigen Entwicklung planender CPS darstellen.Mere og mere af vores fysiske verden bliver overvåget og kontrolleret af såkaldte cyber-fysiske systemer (CPSer). Disse er sammensætninger af netværksbaserede autonome IT (cyber) og fysiske (physical) agenter, såsom sensorer, aktuatorer, beregningsenheder, og mennesker. I dag er CPSer stadig forholdsvis små og meget begrænsede i forhold til de CPSer vi kan forvente i fremtiden. Fremtidige CPSer forventes at være langt mere komplekse, storstilede, udbredte, og missionskritiske, og vil kunne findes i en række områder såsom transport, medicin, produktion og energi, hvor de vil give mange fordele, såsom øget effektivitet, bæredygtighed, pålidelighed og sikkerhed. For at frigøre CPSernes fulde potentiale, skal de bl.a. udstyres med støtte til automatiseret planlægning og kontrol, hvor beregningsagenter i samspil og løbende planlægger og styrer deres handlinger på en intelligent og velkoordineret måde for at sikre og optimere en fysisk proces, såsom elforsyningen i elnettet. I nuværende CPSer er styringen typisk automatiseret, mens planlægningen udelukkende er foretaget af mennesker. Det er umuligt for mennesker at planlægge hver handling i et fremtidigt CPS på grund af kompleksiteten, skalaen, og omskifteligheden af en fysisk proces. På grund af disse egenskaber, skal kontrol og planlægning være kontinuerlig og automatiseret i fremtidens CPSer. Mennesker kan kun analysere og justere systemets drift ved hjælp af det sæt af værktøjer, der understøtter præskriptive analyser (prescriptive analytics), der giver dem mulighed for (1) at lave forudsigelser, (2) at få forslagene fra de mest fremtrædende sæt handlinger (beslutninger), der skal tages, og (3) at analysere konsekvenserne, hvis sådanne handlinger blev udført. Denne afhandling omhandler planlægning og kontrol i forbindelse med store multi-agent CPSer. Baseret på en smart-grid use case, præsenterer afhandlingen det såkaldte PrescriptiveCPS hvilket er (den konceptuelle model af) et multi-agent, multi-rolle, og multi-level CPS, der automatisk og kontinuerligt tager beslutninger i nær-realtid og leverer (menneskelige) brugere præskriptiveanalyseværktøjer til at analysere og håndtere det underliggende fysiske system (eller proces). I erkendelse af kompleksiteten af CPSer, giver denne afhandling bidrag til følgende tre niveauer: (1) niveauet for et (fuldt) PrescriptiveCPS, (2) niveauet for en enkelt PrescriptiveCPS agent, og (3) niveauet for en komponent af et CPS agent software system. På CPS-niveau, omfatter bidragene definitionen af PrescriptiveCPS, i henhold til hvilken det er det system med interagerende fysiske- og IT- (under-) systemer. Her består IT-systemet af hierarkisk organiserede forbundne agenter der sammen styrer instanser af såkaldte fleksibilitet (flexibility), beslutning (decision) og præskriptive (prescription) modeller, som henholdsvis er kortvarige, fokuserer på fremtiden, og repræsenterer en kapacitet, en (brugers) intention, og måder til at ændre adfærd (tilstand) af et fysisk system. På agentniveau omfatter bidragene en tre-lags arkitektur af et agent software system, der integrerer antallet af komponenter, der er specielt konstrueret eller udbygges til at understøtte funktionaliteten af PrescriptiveCPS. Komponentniveauet er hvor afhandlingen har sit hovedbidrag. Bidragene omfatter beskrivelse, design og eksperimentel evaluering af (1) et samlet multi- dimensionelt skema til at opbevare fleksibilitet og præskriptive modeller (og data), (2) teknikker til trinvis aggregering af fleksibilitet modelinstanser og disaggregering af præskriptive modelinstanser (3) et database management system (DBMS) med indbygget optimeringsproblemløsning (optimization problem solving) der gør det muligt at formulere optimeringsproblemer ved hjælp af SQL-lignende forespørgsler og at løse dem "inde i en database", (4) en realtids data management arkitektur til at behandle instanser af fleksibilitet og præskriptive modeller under (bløde eller hårde) tidsbegrænsninger, og (5) en grafisk brugergrænseflade (GUI) til visuelt at analysere fleksibilitet og præskriptive modelinstanser. Derudover diskuterer og eksemplificerer afhandlingen (men giver ingen evalueringer af) (1) domæne-specifikke og in-DBMS generiske prognosemetoder der gør det muligt at forudsige instanser af fleksibilitet modeller baseret på historiske data, og (2) kraftfulde måder at analysere tidligere-, nutids- og fremtidsbaserede såkaldte hypotetiske hvad-hvis scenarier og fleksibilitet og præskriptive modelinstanser gemt i en database. De fleste af bidragene på dette niveau er baseret på et smart-grid brugsscenarie. Sammenfattende giver afhandlingen (1) modellen for et CPS med planlægningsmulighed, (2) design og eksperimentel evaluering af præskriptive analyse teknikker der gør det muligt effektivt at forudsige, aggregere, disaggregere, visualisere og analysere komplekse modeller af den fysiske verden, og (3) brugsscenariet fra energiområdet, der viser, hvordan de indførte begreber kan anvendes i den virkelige verden. Vi mener, at dette bidrag udgør et betydeligt skridt i retning af at udvikle CPSer til planlægningsbrug i fremtiden

Non-Cooperative Games for Self-Interested Planning Agents

Multi-Agent Planning (MAP) is a topic of growing interest that deals with the problem of automated planning in domains where multiple agents plan and act together in a shared environment. In most cases, agents in MAP are cooperative (altruistic) and work together towards a collaborative solution. However, when rational self-interested agents are involved in a MAP task, the ultimate objective is to find a joint plan that accomplishes the agents' local tasks while satisfying their private interests. Among the MAP scenarios that involve self-interested agents, non-cooperative MAP refers to problems where non-strictly competitive agents feature common and conflicting interests. In this setting, conflicts arise when self-interested agents put their plans together and the resulting combination renders some of the plans non-executable, which implies a utility loss for the affected agents. Each participant wishes to execute its plan as it was conceived, but congestion issues and conflicts among the actions of the different plans compel agents to find a coordinated stable solution. Non-cooperative MAP tasks are tackled through non-cooperative games, which aim at finding a stable (equilibrium) joint plan that ensures the agents' plans are executable (by addressing planning conflicts) while accounting for their private interests as much as possible. Although this paradigm reflects many real-life problems, there is a lack of computational approaches to non-cooperative MAP in the literature. This PhD thesis pursues the application of non-cooperative games to solve non-cooperative MAP tasks that feature rational self-interested agents. Each agent calculates a plan that attains its individual planning task, and subsequently, the participants try to execute their plans in a shared environment. We tackle non-cooperative MAP from a twofold perspective. On the one hand, we focus on agents' satisfaction by studying desirable properties of stable solutions, such as optimality and fairness. On the other hand, we look for a combination of MAP and game-theoretic techniques capable of efficiently computing stable joint plans while minimizing the computational complexity of this combined task. Additionally, we consider planning conflicts and congestion issues in the agents' utility functions, which results in a more realistic approach. To the best of our knowledge, this PhD thesis opens up a new research line in non-cooperative MAP and establishes the basic principles to attain the problem of synthesizing stable joint plans for self-interested planning agents through the combination of game theory and automated planning.La Planificación Multi-Agente (PMA) es un tema de creciente interés que trata el problema de la planificación automática en dominios donde múltiples agentes planifican y actúan en un entorno compartido. En la mayoría de casos, los agentes en PMA son cooperativos (altruistas) y trabajan juntos para obtener una solución colaborativa. Sin embargo, cuando los agentes involucrados en una tarea de PMA son racionales y auto-interesados, el objetivo último es obtener un plan conjunto que resuelva las tareas locales de los agentes y satisfaga sus intereses privados. De entre los distintos escenarios de PMA que involucran agentes auto-interesados, la PMA no cooperativa se centra en problemas que presentan un conjunto de agentes no estrictamente competitivos con intereses comunes y conflictivos. En este contexto, pueden surgir conflictos cuando los agentes ponen en común sus planes y la combinación resultante provoca que algunos de estos planes no sean ejecutables, lo que implica una pérdida de utilidad para los agentes afectados. Cada participante desea ejecutar su plan tal como fue concebido, pero las congestiones y conflictos que pueden surgir entre las acciones de los diferentes planes fuerzan a los agentes a obtener una solución estable y coordinada. Las tareas de PMA no cooperativa se abordan a través de juegos no cooperativos, cuyo objetivo es hallar un plan conjunto estable (equilibrio) que asegure que los planes de los agentes sean ejecutables (resolviendo los conflictos de planificación) al tiempo que los agentes satisfacen sus intereses privados en la medida de lo posible. Aunque este paradigma refleja muchos problemas de la vida real, existen pocos enfoques computacionales para PMA no cooperativa en la literatura. Esta tesis doctoral estudia el uso de juegos no cooperativos para resolver tareas de PMA no cooperativa con agentes racionales auto-interesados. Cada agente calcula un plan para su tarea de planificación y posteriormente, los participantes intentan ejecutar sus planes en un entorno compartido. Abordamos la PMA no cooperativa desde una doble perspectiva. Por una parte, nos centramos en la satisfacción de los agentes estudiando las propiedades deseables de soluciones estables, tales como la optimalidad y la justicia. Por otra parte, buscamos una combinación de PMA y técnicas de teoría de juegos capaz de calcular planes conjuntos estables de forma eficiente al tiempo que se minimiza la complejidad computacional de esta tarea combinada. Además, consideramos los conflictos de planificación y congestiones en las funciones de utilidad de los agentes, lo que resulta en un enfoque más realista. Bajo nuestro punto de vista, esta tesis doctoral abre una nueva línea de investigación en PMA no cooperativa y establece los principios básicos para resolver el problema de la generación de planes conjuntos estables para agentes de planificación auto-interesados mediante la combinación de teoría de juegos y planificación automática.La Planificació Multi-Agent (PMA) és un tema de creixent interès que tracta el problema de la planificació automàtica en dominis on múltiples agents planifiquen i actuen en un entorn compartit. En la majoria de casos, els agents en PMA són cooperatius (altruistes) i treballen junts per obtenir una solució col·laborativa. No obstant això, quan els agents involucrats en una tasca de PMA són racionals i auto-interessats, l'objectiu últim és obtenir un pla conjunt que resolgui les tasques locals dels agents i satisfaci els seus interessos privats. D'entre els diferents escenaris de PMA que involucren agents auto-interessats, la PMA no cooperativa se centra en problemes que presenten un conjunt d'agents no estrictament competitius amb interessos comuns i conflictius. En aquest context, poden sorgir conflictes quan els agents posen en comú els seus plans i la combinació resultant provoca que alguns d'aquests plans no siguin executables, el que implica una pèrdua d'utilitat per als agents afectats. Cada participant vol executar el seu pla tal com va ser concebut, però les congestions i conflictes que poden sorgir entre les accions dels diferents plans forcen els agents a obtenir una solució estable i coordinada. Les tasques de PMA no cooperativa s'aborden a través de jocs no cooperatius, en els quals l'objectiu és trobar un pla conjunt estable (equilibri) que asseguri que els plans dels agents siguin executables (resolent els conflictes de planificació) alhora que els agents satisfan els seus interessos privats en la mesura del possible. Encara que aquest paradigma reflecteix molts problemes de la vida real, hi ha pocs enfocaments computacionals per PMA no cooperativa en la literatura. Aquesta tesi doctoral estudia l'ús de jocs no cooperatius per resoldre tasques de PMA no cooperativa amb agents racionals auto-interessats. Cada agent calcula un pla per a la seva tasca de planificació i posteriorment, els participants intenten executar els seus plans en un entorn compartit. Abordem la PMA no cooperativa des d'una doble perspectiva. D'una banda, ens centrem en la satisfacció dels agents estudiant les propietats desitjables de solucions estables, com ara la optimalitat i la justícia. D'altra banda, busquem una combinació de PMA i tècniques de teoria de jocs capaç de calcular plans conjunts estables de forma eficient alhora que es minimitza la complexitat computacional d'aquesta tasca combinada. A més, considerem els conflictes de planificació i congestions en les funcions d'utilitat dels agents, el que resulta en un enfocament més realista. Des del nostre punt de vista, aquesta tesi doctoral obre una nova línia d'investigació en PMA no cooperativa i estableix els principis bàsics per resoldre el problema de la generació de plans conjunts estables per a agents de planificació auto-interessats mitjançant la combinació de teoria de jocs i planificació automàtica.Jordán Prunera, JM. (2017). Non-Cooperative Games for Self-Interested Planning Agents [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/90417TESI

Quantifying energy transition pathways: an integrated framework approach

This thesis provides quantitative insights into energy transition pathways using a framework approach (i.e., IESA), which links bottom-up and top-down energy and economy models, covers the whole demand, supply, infrastructure and trade of energy, has a low entry-barrier, and features advanced capabilities, such as, wide range of flexibility options and hourly temporal resolution, tailored to answer future policy questions. Moreover, the current study shows the implications of model improvements on required data at specific resolutions and how data availability restrains such improvements. Finally, the thesis demonstrates how the higher modeling capabilities and resolutions inform Dutch energy transition scenarios with respect to environmental policies, direction and timing of investments, and its impact on the economy

A Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch Model of the GB Electricity Market – Formulation and Application to Hydro Pumped Storage

We present a well calibrated unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the GB electricity market and applied it to the economic analysis of the four existing hydro pumped storage (PS) stations in GB. We found that with more wind on the system PS arbitrage revenue increases: with every percentage point (p.p) increase in wind capacity the total PS arbitrage profit increases by 0.21 p.p.. However, under a range of wind capacity, the PS’ modelled revenue from price arbitrage is not enough to cover their ongoing fixed costs. Analysing the 2015-18 GB balancing and ancillary services data suggests that PS stations were not active in managing transmission constraints and in fact about 60% of constraint payments went to gas-fired units. However, the PS stations are active in provision of ancillary services such as fast reserve, response and other reserve services with a combined market share of at least 30% in 2018. Stacking up the modelled revenue from price arbitrage with the 2018 balancing and ancillary services revenues against the ongoing fixed costs suggests that the four existing PS stations are profitable. Most of the revenue comes from balancing and ancillary services markets – about 75% – whereas only 25% comes from price arbitrage. However, the revenues will not be enough to cover capex and opex of a new 600 MW PS station. The gap in financing will have to come from balancing and ancillary services market opportunities and less so from purely price arbitrage. Finally, we found that the marginal contribution of most of the existing PS stations to gas and coal plant profitability is negative, while from the system point of view, PS stations do contribute to minimizing the total operating cost

Essays on Regional Power System Investment: Value of Planning Model Enhancements, Transmission Generation Storage Co-optimization, and Border Carbon Adjustment

This thesis is composed of three essays on power system planning models, which are models that identify what assets of transmission, generation, storage, and demand-management would be beneficial to invest (or retire) over a multidecadal time horizon for large geographic regions. In the first essay, I propose a framework to systematically evaluate the economic benefits of enhancements to planning models, facilitating meaningful comparisons among model enhancements. I test the framework in a transmission expansion planning (TEP) context for the western U.S. and compare four enhancements: (1) consideration of multiple scenarios of long-run policy, economy, and technology scenarios, (2) refined representations of short-run operational variability due to demand and variable energy resources, (3) refined power flow modeling, and (4) inclusion of generation unit commitment costs and constraints. Results show that the consideration of long-run uncertainties provides the most benefits, while benefits from the other three enhancements are relatively small. The interaction between storage and transmission can be both complementary and substitutive. In the second essay, to quantify the benefits of considering this interaction in TEP, I enhance the TEP model with storage expansion capability and test it in a planning context for the western U.S. Results show that the benefits of anticipating storage expansion in TEP increase when the assumed cost of building storage decreases but are sensitive to assumed carbon prices. Compared to the total value that storage can bring to the power system, the value of anticipating storage expansion in TEP can be significant, showing a strong impact from TEP decisions upon the profitability of storage investors. In the third essay, I use the TEP model to test the effectiveness of different border carbon adjustment policies in the western U.S. power system, in which California is a unilaterally regulates carbon emissions. The results show that charging electricity imports based on the facility-specific emission rate of the import contract can lead to substantial emissions leakage and even increases in total system emissions. Meanwhile, assuming the same emission rate across all electricity imports can partially mitigate leakage and result in small system-wide emissions reductions. Finally, basing the import emission rate on the marginal emission rate external to the carbon pricing regime can encourage a system-wide emission reduction, achieving the best economic efficiency