Asset Price Bubbles, Price Stability, and Monetary Policy: Japan' s Experience

Japan's economy has experienced an extremely large swing against the backdrop of the emergence, expansion, and bursting of asset price bubbles. When examining the emergence and bursting of the bubble economy from the viewpoint of monetary policy management, should the Bank of Japan have given more consideration to asset price fluctuations in formulating its monetary policy? Or, should the Bank not have been perplexed with asset price fluctuations and conducted policies focusing only on the general price level such as inflation targeting? In answering these questions and deciding policy actions, to what extent should the Bank consider financial system problems? This paper aims at forming some tentative answers to these questions.

The UK Transport Carbon Model : An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

Peer reviewedPostprin

If, At First, The Idea is Not Absurd, Then There is No Hope For It: Towards 15 MtC in the UK Transport Sector.

This paper examines the possibilities of reducing transport carbon dioxide emissions in the UK by 60 per cent by 2030 using a modified scenario building and backcasting approach. It examines a range of policy measures (behavioural and technological), assessing how they can be effectively combined to achieve the required level of emissions reduction. The intention is to evaluate whether such an ambitious target is feasible, identify the main problems (including the transition costs), and the main decision points over the 30-year time horizon. This paper outlines the first stages of the research, providing: An introduction to futures studies, including a review of forecasting, scenario building and backcasting approaches; An assessment of the UK transport sector's contribution to climate change and global warming, and; Setting targets for 2030, forecasting the business as usual situation for all forms of transport in the UK, and assessing the scale of change in terms of achieving the emissions reductions. The benefits of scenario building and backcasting are that innovative packages of policy measures can be developed to address emissions reduction targets. It allows trend-breaking analysis, by highlighting the policy and planning choices to be made by identifying those key stakeholders that should be included in the process, and by making an assessment of the main decision points that have to be made (the step changes). It also provides a longer-term background against which more detailed analysis can take place.

Central Asia : Mapping Future Prospects

Central Asia has emerged as one of the worlds fastest growing regions since the late 1990s and has shown notable development potential. This is significant for a region comprising largely of small landlocked economies with no access to the sea for trade. Among the advantages, of the region are its high- priced commodities (oil, gas, cotton and gold), reasonable infrastructure and human capital as legacies of Soviet rule; and a strategic location between Asia and Europe. Furthermore, many Central Asian Republics (CARs) have embarked on market-oriented economic reforms to boost economic performance and private sector competitiveness. Central Asia : Mapping Future Prospects considers the regions economic prospects to 2015. It charts recent economic performance, highlighting the economic revival. It also synthesizes recent forecasts and constructs scenarios for future economic variables against a constant global background. Projections include, among others, gross domestic product (GDP), manufactured exports per head, GDP per capita and poverty. A special theme chapter develops a manufacturing competitiveness index to compare the CARs with other transition economies and explores the impact of economic reform and supply-side factors (e.g. foreign investment and human capital) on industrial performancecentral Asia, future economic variables, gross domestic product, manufactured exports per head, GDP per capita, poverty, manufacturing competitiveness index

Text mining to gain technical intelligence for acquired target selection: A case study for China's computer numerical control machine tools industry

© 2016 Elsevier Inc. Technology strategy plays an increasingly important role in today's Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activities. Informing that strategy with empirical intelligence offers great potential value to R&D managers and technology policy makers. This paper proposes a methodology, based on patent analysis, to extract technical intelligence to identify M&A target technologies and evaluate relevant target companies to facilitate M&A target selection. We apply the term clumping process and a trend analysis together with policy and market information to profile present R&D status and capture future development signals and trends in order to grasp a range of significant domain-based technologies. Furthermore, a comparison between a selected acquirer and leading players is used to identify significant technologies and sub-technologies for specific strategy-oriented technology M&A activities. Finally, aiming to recommend appropriate M&A target companies, we set up an index-based system to evaluate the acquired target candidates from both firms-side perspective and target firm-side perspective and differentially weigh for specific M&A situations. We provide an empirical study in the field of computer numerical control machine tools (CNCMT) in China to identify technology M&A targets for an emerging Chinese CNCMT company — Estun Automation under different M&A strategies

Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand

We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply "data-rich" factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many countries. The methods covered are principal components, targeted predictors, weighted principal components, partial least squares, elastic net and ridge regression. Using these methods, we assess the marginal predictive content of international data for New Zealand GDP growth. We find that exploiting a large number of international predictors can improve forecasts of our target variable, compared to more traditional models based on small datasets. This is in spite of New Zealand survey data capturing a substantial proportion of the predictive information in the international data. The largest forecasting accuracy gains from including international predictors are at longer forecast horizons. The forecasting performance achievable with the data-rich methods differs widely, with shrinkage methods and partial least squares performing best. We also assess the type of international data that contains the most predictive information for New Zealand growth over our sample. --Forecasting,factor models,shrinkage methods,principal components,targeted predictors,weighted principal components,partial least squares

Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10

This paper provides an outlook for the Indian economy in the light of the extraordinary global financial crisis, that started in the US, but which has now transformed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Indian economy was slowing down even before the onset of global crisis and so the timing of this external shock could not have been worse. The analysis undertaken for this paper shows that the global crisis is likely to bring the Indian GDP growth rate down considerably. This will pose a big challenge requiring urgent and sustained policy attention to prevent this downturn from becoming unnecessarily prolonged. There is real downside risk that the growth rate could plummet to the pre-1980s levels if appropriate countercyclical measures are not taken immediately and are not urgently followed by necessary structural reforms. The paper provides a short-term forecast for GDP growth based on a model of leading economic indicators. We present three scenarios in the paper assuming differentiated impact of the external crisis. Finally the paper suggests a set of policy measures to get the Indian economy back on the path of sustained rapid and inclusive growth.Forecasting, Indian economic growth, Economic outlook and conditions, Financial crises