Problems of ranking and dynamics of complex bipartite networks

openA recent new line of research that aims to couple network theory and economics has grown in the last decade, thanks to its ability to capture information from large datasets of exports and cast it into human-readable measures to rank nations and commodities. With Economic Complexity, we aim to infer as much as possible meaningful information about the nodes of the network of worldwide exports and, possibly, use this information to deduce the future topology of the economic network. In this thesis, we will present a new algorithm to measure the complexity of nations and the ubiquity of products, based on a self-consistent use of the Shannon entropy function that makes full use of the exports dataset information. We will discuss how these new entropic measures differ from the usually used complexity measures in the economic complexity framework, such as Fitness and Economic Complexity Index (ECI), highlighting the improvements. An original discussion about the dynamics of the measure will be presented, constructing an entropy-income plane by coupling the entropic complexity measure to some macroeconomic monetary indicator. A coarse-grained analysis of the plane will unveil a flow structure, individuating a laminar dynamics region thanks to the entropic dimension of nations. Moreover, we will observe how entropy and economic stability are strongly correlated. Finally, we will use the dynamical information of the entropy-income plane to predict Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at five years. We will use an algorithm developed in the context of Fitness, the selective predictability scheme bootstrap. This algorithm is an example of the method of analogues, firstly developed in the context of atmospheric prediction, as we will look at historical dynamics of nations with comparable entropy and GDP, hence at the analogues, to infer future growth. However, in the original formulation of the algorithm the problem to choose the right ”comparable” nations’ dynamics was not addressed. We will individuate and solve this problem using a statistical learning approach to historical data, combined with an update of the algorithm towards kernel regression. The use of the maximum information available in the dataset of exports, their stability against noisy data, the relevant dynamical information, and the improvement in accuracy of a 20% with respect to the International Monetary Fund prediction of growth make this measure an excellent candidate to rank nations and products according to their relevance in the trade market

Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics

There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework. The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers’ decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers’ choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space–time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamic

Integrated information increases with fitness in the evolution of animats

One of the hallmarks of biological organisms is their ability to integrate disparate information sources to optimize their behavior in complex environments. How this capability can be quantified and related to the functional complexity of an organism remains a challenging problem, in particular since organismal functional complexity is not well-defined. We present here several candidate measures that quantify information and integration, and study their dependence on fitness as an artificial agent ("animat") evolves over thousands of generations to solve a navigation task in a simple, simulated environment. We compare the ability of these measures to predict high fitness with more conventional information-theoretic processing measures. As the animat adapts by increasing its "fit" to the world, information integration and processing increase commensurately along the evolutionary line of descent. We suggest that the correlation of fitness with information integration and with processing measures implies that high fitness requires both information processing as well as integration, but that information integration may be a better measure when the task requires memory. A correlation of measures of information integration (but also information processing) and fitness strongly suggests that these measures reflect the functional complexity of the animat, and that such measures can be used to quantify functional complexity even in the absence of fitness data.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, one supplementary figure. Three supplementary video files available on request. Version commensurate with published text in PLoS Comput. Bio

Multilayer Complex Network Descriptors for Color-Texture Characterization

A new method based on complex networks is proposed for color-texture analysis. The proposal consists on modeling the image as a multilayer complex network where each color channel is a layer, and each pixel (in each color channel) is represented as a network vertex. The network dynamic evolution is accessed using a set of modeling parameters (radii and thresholds), and new characterization techniques are introduced to capt information regarding within and between color channel spatial interaction. An automatic and adaptive approach for threshold selection is also proposed. We conduct classification experiments on 5 well-known datasets: Vistex, Usptex, Outex13, CURet and MBT. Results among various literature methods are compared, including deep convolutional neural networks with pre-trained architectures. The proposed method presented the highest overall performance over the 5 datasets, with 97.7 of mean accuracy against 97.0 achieved by the ResNet convolutional neural network with 50 layers.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures and 4 table

Establishing the boundaries: the hippocampal contribution to imagining scenes

When we visualize scenes, either from our own past or invented, we impose a viewpoint for our “mind's eye” and we experience the resulting image as spatially coherent from that viewpoint. The hippocampus has been implicated in this process, but its precise contribution is unknown. We tested a specific hypothesis based on the spatial firing properties of neurons in the hippocampal formation of rats, that this region supports the construction of spatially coherent mental images by representing the locations of the environmental boundaries surrounding our viewpoint. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we show that hippocampal activation increases parametrically with the number of enclosing boundaries in the imagined scene. In contrast, hippocampal activity is not modulated by a nonspatial manipulation of scene complexity nor to increasing difficulty of imagining the scenes in general. Our findings identify a specific computational role for the hippocampus in mental imagery and episodic recollection