Personalized Purchase Prediction of Market Baskets with Wasserstein-Based Sequence Matching

Personalization in marketing aims at improving the shopping experience of customers by tailoring services to individuals. In order to achieve this, businesses must be able to make personalized predictions regarding the next purchase. That is, one must forecast the exact list of items that will comprise the next purchase, i.e., the so-called market basket. Despite its relevance to firm operations, this problem has received surprisingly little attention in prior research, largely due to its inherent complexity. In fact, state-of-the-art approaches are limited to intuitive decision rules for pattern extraction. However, the simplicity of the pre-coded rules impedes performance, since decision rules operate in an autoregressive fashion: the rules can only make inferences from past purchases of a single customer without taking into account the knowledge transfer that takes place between customers. In contrast, our research overcomes the limitations of pre-set rules by contributing a novel predictor of market baskets from sequential purchase histories: our predictions are based on similarity matching in order to identify similar purchase habits among the complete shopping histories of all customers. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We propose similarity matching based on subsequential dynamic time warping (SDTW) as a novel predictor of market baskets. Thereby, we can effectively identify cross-customer patterns. (2) We leverage the Wasserstein distance for measuring the similarity among embedded purchase histories. (3) We develop a fast approximation algorithm for computing a lower bound of the Wasserstein distance in our setting. An extensive series of computational experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. The accuracy of identifying the exact market baskets based on state-of-the-art decision rules from the literature is outperformed by a factor of 4.0.Comment: Accepted for oral presentation at 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2019

Including Item Characteristics in the Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis Model for Collaborative Filtering

We propose a new hybrid recommender system that combines some advantages of collaborative and content-based recommender systems. While it uses ratings data of all users, as do collaborative recommender systems, it is also able to recommend new items and provide an explanation of its recommendations, as do content-based systems. Our approach is based on the idea that there are communities of users that find the same characteristics important to like or dislike a product. This model is an extension of the probabilistic latent semantic model for collaborative filtering with ideas based on clusterwise linear regression. On a movie data set, we show that the model is competitive to other recommenders and can be used to explain the recommendations to the users.algorithms;probabilistic latent semantic analysis;hybrid recommender systems;recommender systems