Computability and Evolutionary Complexity: Markets As Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)

The purpose of this Feature is to critically examine and to contribute to the burgeoning multi disciplinary literature on markets as complex adaptive systems (CAS). Three economists, Robert Axtell, Steven Durlauf and Arthur Robson who have distinguished themselves as pioneers in different aspects of how the thesis of evolutionary complexity pertains to market environments have contributed to this special issue. Axtell is concerned about the procedural aspects of attaining market equilibria in a decentralized setting and argues that principles on the complexity of feasible computation should rule in or out widely held models such as the Walrasian one. Robson puts forward the hypothesis called the Red Queen principle, well known from evolutionary biology, as a possible explanation for the evolution of complexity itself. Durlauf examines some of the claims that have been made in the name of complex systems theory to see whether these present testable hypothesis for economic models. My overview aims to use the wider literature on complex systems to provide a conceptual framework within which to discuss the issues raised for Economics in the above contributions and elsewhere. In particular, some assessment will be made on the extent to which modern complex systems theory and its application to markets as CAS constitutes a paradigm shift from more mainstream economic analysis

Coevolutionary Approaches to Generating Robust Build-Orders for Real-Time Strategy Games

We aim to find winning build-orders for Real-Time Strategy games. Real-Time Strategy games provide a variety of challenges, from short-term control to longer term planning. We focus on a longer-term planning problem; which units to build and in what order to produce the units so a player successfully defeats the opponent. Plans which address unit construction scheduling problems in Real-Time Strategy games are called build-orders. A robust build-order defeats many opponents, while a strong build-order defeats opponents quickly. However, no single build-order defeats all other build-orders, and build-orders that defeat many opponents may still lose against a specific opponent. Other researchers have only investigated generating build-orders that defeat a specific opponent, rather than finding robust, strong build-orders. Additionally, previous research has not applied coevolutionary algorithms towards generating build-orders. In contrast, our research has three main contributions towards finding robust, strong build-orders. First, we apply a coevolutionary algorithm towards finding robust build-orders. Compared to exhaustive search, a genetic algorithm finds the strongest build-orders while a coevolutionary algorithm finds more robust build-orders. Second, we show that case-injection enables coevolution to learn from specific opponents while maintaining robustness. Build-orders produced with coevolution and case-injection learn to defeat or play like the injected build-orders. Third, we show that coevolved build-orders benefit from a representation which includes branches and loops. Coevolution will utilize multiple branches and loops to create build-orders that are stronger than build-orders without loops and branches. We believe this work provides evidence that coevolutionary algorithms may be a viable approach to creating robust, strong build-orders for Real-Time Strategy games

A Survey of Agent-Based Modeling Practices (January 1998 to July 2008)

In the 1990s, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) began gaining popularity and represents a departure from the more classical simulation approaches. This departure, its recent development and its increasing application by non-traditional simulation disciplines indicates the need to continuously assess the current state of ABM and identify opportunities for improvement. To begin to satisfy this need, we surveyed and collected data from 279 articles from 92 unique publication outlets in which the authors had constructed and analyzed an agent-based model. From this large data set we establish the current practice of ABM in terms of year of publication, field of study, simulation software used, purpose of the simulation, acceptable validation criteria, validation techniques and complete description of the simulation. Based on the current practice we discuss six improvements needed to advance ABM as an analysis tool. These improvements include the development of ABM specific tools that are independent of software, the development of ABM as an independent discipline with a common language that extends across domains, the establishment of expectations for ABM that match their intended purposes, the requirement of complete descriptions of the simulation so others can independently replicate the results, the requirement that all models be completely validated and the development and application of statistical and non-statistical validation techniques specifically for ABM.Agent-Based Modeling, Survey, Current Practices, Simulation Validation, Simulation Purpose

How insurance affects altruistic provision in threshold public good games

The occurrence and maintenance of cooperative behaviors in public goods systems have attracted great research attention across multiple disciplines. A threshold public goods game requires a minimum amount of contributions to be collected from a group of individuals for provision to occur. Here we extend the common binary-strategy combination of cooperation and defection by adding a third strategy, called insured cooperation, which corresponds to buying an insurance covering the potential loss resulted from the unsuccessful public goods game. Particularly, only the contributing agents can opt to be insured, which is an effort decreasing the amount of the potential loss occurring. Theoretical computations suggest that when agents face the potential aggregate risk in threshold public goods games, more contributions occur with increasing compensation from insurance. Moreover, permitting the adoption of insurance significantly enhances individual contributions and facilitates provision, especially when the required threshold is high. This work also relates the strategy competition outcomes to different allocation rules once the resulted contributions exceed the threshold point in populations nested within a dilemma

Rules of engagement : competitive coevolutionary dynamics in computational systems

Given that evolutionary biologists have considered coevolutionary interactions since the dawn of Darwinism, it is perhaps surprising that coevolution was largely overlooked during the formative years of evolutionary computing. It was not until the early 1990s that Hillis' seminal work thrust coevolution into the spotlight. Upon attempting to evolve fixed-length sorting networks, a problem with a long and competitive history, Hillis found that his standard evolutionary algorithm was producing sub-standard networks. In response, he decided to reciprocally evolve a population of testlists against the sorting network population; thus producing a coevolutionary system. The result was impressive; coevolution not only outperformed evolution, but the best network it discovered was only one comparison longer than the best-known solution. For the first time, a coevolutionary algorithm had been successfully applied to problem-solving. Pre-Hillis, the shortcomings of standard evolutionary algorithms had been understood for some time: whilst defining an adequate fitness function can be as challenging as the problem one is hoping to solve, once achieved, the accumulation of fitness-improving mutations can push a population towards local optima that are difficult to escape. Coevolution offers a solution. By allowing the fitness of each evolving individual to vary (through competition) with other reciprocally evolving individuals, coevolution removes the requirement of a fitness yardstick. In conjunction, the reciprocal adaptations of each individual begin to erode local optima as soon as they appear. However, coevolution is no panacea. As a problem-solving tool, coevolutionary algorithms suffer from some debilitating dynamics, each a result of the relative fitness assessment of individuals. In a single-, or multi-, population competitive system, coevolution may stabilize at a suboptimal equilibrium, or mediocre stable state; analogous to the traditional problem of local optima. Populations may become highly specialized in an unanticipated (and undesirable) manner; potentially resulting in brittle solutions that are fragile to perturbation. The system may cycle; producing dynamics similar to the children's game rock-paper-scissors. Disengagement may occur, whereby one population out-performs another to the extent that individuals cannot be discriminated on the basis of fitness alone; thus removing selection pressure and allowing populations to drift. Finally, coevolution's relative fitness assessment renders traditional visualization techniques (such as the graph of fitness over time) obsolete; thus exacerbating each of the above problems. This thesis attempts to better understand and address the problems of coevolution through the design and analysis of simple coevolutionary models. 'Reduced virulence' - a novel technique specifically designed to tackle disengagement - is developed. Empirical results demonstrate the ability of reduced virulence to combat disengagement both in simple and complex domains, whilst outperforming the only known competitors. Combining reduced virulence with diversity maintenance techniques is also shown to counteract mediocre stability and over-specialization. A critique of the CIAO plot - a visualization technique developed to detect coevolutionary cycling - highlights previously undocumented ambiguities; experimental evidence demonstrates the need for complementary visualizations. Extending the scope of visualization, a first exploration into coevolutionary steering is performed; a technique allowing the user to interact with a coevolutionary system during run-time. Using a simple model incorporating reduced virulence, the coevolutionary steering demonstration highlights the future potential of such tools for both research and education. The role of neutrality in coevolution is discussed in detail. Whilst much emphasis is placed upon neutral networks in the evolutionary computation literature, the nature of coevolutionary neutrality is generally overlooked. Preliminary ideas for modelling coevolutionary neutrality are presented. Finally, whilst this thesis is primarily aimed at a computing audience, strong reference to evolutionary biology is made throughout. Exemplifying potential crossover, the CIAO plot, a tool previously unused in biology, is applied to a simulation of E. Coli, with results con rming empirical observations of real bacteria.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

THE ECOLOGY OF MUTUALISM

Elementary ecology texts tell us that organisms interact in three fundamen­ tal ways, generally given the names competition, predation, and mutualism. The third member has gotten short shrift (264), and even its name is not generally agreed on. Terms that may be considered synonyms, in whole or part, are symbiosis, commensalism, cooperation, protocooperation, mutual aid, facilitation, reciprocal altruism, and entraide. We use the term mutual­ism, defined as an interaction between species that is beneficial to both, since it has both historical priority (311) and general currency. Symbiosis is the living together of two organisms in close association, and modifiers are used to specify dependence on the interaction (facultative or obligate) and the range of species that can take part (oligophilic or polyphilic). We make the normal apologies concerning forcing continuous variation and diverse interactions into simple dichotomous classifications, for these and all subsequent definitions

Learning Dynamic Network Models for Complex Social Systems

Human societies are inherently complex and highly dynamic, resulting in rapidly changing social networks, containing multiple types of dyadic interactions. Analyzing these time-varying multiplex networks with approaches developed for static, single layer networks often produces poor results. To address this problem, our approach is to explicitly learn the dynamics of these complex networks. This dissertation focuses on five problems: 1) learning link formation rates; 2) predicting changes in community membership; 3) using time series to predict changes in network structure; 4) modeling coevolution patterns across network layers and 5) extracting information from negative layers of a multiplex network. To study these problems, we created a rich dataset extracted from observing social interactions in the massively multiplayer online game Travian. Most online social media platforms are optimized to support a limited range of social interactions, primarily focusing on communication and information sharing. In contrast, relations in massively-multiplayer online games (MMOGs) are often formed during the course of gameplay and evolve as the game progresses. To analyze the players\u27 behavior, we constructed multiplex networks with link types for raid, communication, and trading. The contributions of this dissertation include 1) extensive experiments on the dynamics of networks formed from diverse social processes; 2) new game theoretic models for community detection in dynamic networks; 3) supervised and unsupervised methods for link prediction in multiplex coevolving networks for both positive and negative links. We demonstrate that our holistic approach for modeling network dynamics in coevolving, multiplex networks outperforms factored methods that separately consider temporal and cross-layer patterns

The role of visual adaptation in cichlid fish speciation

D. Shane Wright (1) , Ole Seehausen (2), Ton G.G. Groothuis (1), Martine E. Maan (1) (1) University of Groningen; GELIFES; EGDB(2) Department of Fish Ecology & Evolution, EAWAG Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Biogeochemistry, Kastanienbaum AND Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Aquatic Ecology, University of Bern.In less than 15,000 years, Lake Victoria cichlid fishes have radiated into as many as 500 different species. Ecological and sexual sel ection are thought to contribute to this ongoing speciation process, but genetic differentiation remains low. However, recent work in visual pigment genes, opsins, has shown more diversity. Unlike neighboring Lakes Malawi and Tanganyika, Lake Victoria is highly turbid, resulting in a long wavelength shift in the light spectrum with increasing depth, providing an environmental gradient for exploring divergent coevolution in sensory systems and colour signals via sensory drive. Pundamilia pundamila and Pundamilia nyererei are two sympatric species found at rocky islands across southern portions of Lake Victoria, differing in male colouration and the depth they reside. Previous work has shown species differentiation in colour discrimination, corresponding to divergent female preferences for conspecific male colouration. A mechanistic link between colour vision and preference would provide a rapid route to reproductive isolation between divergently adapting populations. This link is tested by experimental manip ulation of colour vision - raising both species and their hybrids under light conditions mimicking shallow and deep habitats. We quantify the expression of retinal opsins and test behaviours important for speciation: mate choice, habitat preference, and fo raging performance