Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh Sunspot Classifications

Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time observations. Here, a new forecast method is presented based upon the 24-hr evolution in McIntosh classification of sunspot groups. Evolution-dependent $\geqslant$C1.0 and $\geqslant$M1.0 flaring rates are found from NOAA-numbered sunspot groups over December 1988 to June 1996 (Solar Cycle 22; SC22) before converting to probabilities assuming Poisson statistics. These flaring probabilities are used to generate operational forecasts for sunspot groups over July 1996 to December 2008 (SC23), with performance studied by verification metrics. Major findings are: i) considering Brier skill score (BSS) for $\geqslant$C1.0 flares, the evolution-dependent McIntosh-Poisson method ($\text{BSS}_{\text{evolution}}=0.09$) performs better than the static McIntosh-Poisson method ($\text{BSS}_{\text{static}} = -0.09$); ii) low BSS values arise partly from both methods over-forecasting SC23 flares from the SC22 rates, symptomatic of $\geqslant$C1.0 rates in SC23 being on average $\approx$80% of those in SC22 (with $\geqslant$M1.0 being $\approx$50%); iii) applying a bias-correction factor to reduce the SC22 rates used in forecasting SC23 flares yields modest improvement in skill relative to climatology for both methods ($\mathrm{BSS}^{\mathrm{corr}}_{\mathrm{static}} = 0.09$ and $\mathrm{BSS}^{\mathrm{corr}}_{\mathrm{evolution}} = 0.20$) and improved forecast reliability diagrams.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figure

Spectral absorption of biomass burning aerosol determined from retrieved single scattering albedo during ARCTAS

Actinic flux, as well as aerosol chemical and optical properties, were measured aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) mission in Spring and Summer 2008. These measurements were used in a radiative transfer code to retrieve spectral (350-550 nm) aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) for biomass burning plumes encountered on 17 April and 29 June. Retrieved SSA values were subsequently used to calculate the absorption Angstrom exponent (AAE) over the 350-500 nm range. Both plumes exhibited enhanced spectral absorption with AAE values that exceeded 1 (6.78 ± 0.38 for 17 April and 3.34 ± 0.11 for 29 June). This enhanced absorption was primarily due to organic aerosol (OA) which contributed significantly to total absorption at all wavelengths for both 17 April (57.7%) and 29 June (56.2%). OA contributions to absorption were greater at UV wavelengths than at visible wavelengths for both cases. Differences in AAE values between the two cases were attributed to differences in plume age and thus to differences in the ratio of OA and black carbon (BC) concentrations. However, notable differences between AAE values calculated for the OA (AAEOA) for 17 April (11.15 ± 0.59) and 29 June (4.94 ± 0.19) suggested differences in the plume AAE values might also be due to differences in organic aerosol composition. The 17 April OA was much more oxidized than the 29 June OA as denoted by a higher oxidation state value for 17 April (+0.16 vs. -0.32). Differences in the AAEOA, as well as the overall AAE, were thus also possibly due to oxidation of biomass burning primary organic aerosol in the 17 April plume that resulted in the formation of OA with a greater spectral-dependence of absorption. © Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License

Bias adjustment of infrared-based rainfall estimation using Passive Microwave satellite rainfall data

This study explores using Passive Microwave (PMW) rainfall estimation for spatial and temporal adjustment of Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System(PERSIANN-CCS). The PERSIANN-CCS algorithm collects information from infrared images to estimate rainfall. PERSIANN-CCS is one of the algorithms used in the IntegratedMultisatellite Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Mission) estimation for the time period PMW rainfall estimations are limited or not available. Continued improvement of PERSIANN-CCS will support Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM for current as well as retrospective estimations of global precipitation. This study takes advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS estimation and the more effective, but lower sample frequency, PMW estimation. The Probability Matching Method (PMM) was used to adjust the rainfall distribution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS toward that of PMW rainfall estimation. The results show that a significant improvement of global PERSIANN-CCS rainfall estimation is obtained

Digital image correlation (DIC) analysis of the 3 December 2013 Montescaglioso landslide (Basilicata, Southern Italy). Results from a multi-dataset investigation

Image correlation remote sensing monitoring techniques are becoming key tools for providing effective qualitative and quantitative information suitable for natural hazard assessments, specifically for landslide investigation and monitoring. In recent years, these techniques have been successfully integrated and shown to be complementary and competitive with more standard remote sensing techniques, such as satellite or terrestrial Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry. The objective of this article is to apply the proposed in-depth calibration and validation analysis, referred to as the Digital Image Correlation technique, to measure landslide displacement. The availability of a multi-dataset for the 3 December 2013 Montescaglioso landslide, characterized by different types of imagery, such as LANDSAT 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) and TIRS (Thermal Infrared Sensor), high-resolution airborne optical orthophotos, Digital Terrain Models and COSMO-SkyMed Synthetic Aperture Radar, allows for the retrieval of the actual landslide displacement field at values ranging from a few meters (2–3 m in the north-eastern sector of the landslide) to 20–21 m (local peaks on the central body of the landslide). Furthermore, comprehensive sensitivity analyses and statistics-based processing approaches are used to identify the role of the background noise that affects the whole dataset. This noise has a directly proportional relationship to the different geometric and temporal resolutions of the processed imagery. Moreover, the accuracy of the environmental-instrumental background noise evaluation allowed the actual displacement measurements to be correctly calibrated and validated, thereby leading to a better definition of the threshold values of the maximum Digital Image Correlation sub-pixel accuracy and reliability (ranging from 1/10 to 8/10 pixel) for each processed dataset

How significant is the impact of irrigation on the local hydroclimate in Californias Central Valley? Comparison of model results with ground and remote-sensing data

The effect of irrigation on regional climate has been studied over the years. However, in most studies, the model was usually set at coarse resolution, and the soil moisture was set to field capacity at each time step. We reinvestigated this issue over the Central Valley of California's agricultural area by: (1) using the regional climate model at different resolutions down to the finest resolution of 4 km for the most inner domain, covering California's Central Valley, the central coast, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and water; (2) using a more realistic irrigation scheme in the model through the use of different allowable soil water depletion configurations; and (3) evaluating the simulated results against satellite and in situ observations available through the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). The simulation results with fine model resolution and with the more realistic irrigation scheme indicate that the surface meteorological fields are noticeably improved when compared with observations from the CIMIS network and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Our results also indicate that irrigation has significant impacts on local meteorological fields by decreasing temperature by 3°-7°C and increasing relative humidity by 9-20%, depending on model resolutions and allowable soil water depletion configurations. More significantly, our results using the improved model show that the effects of irrigation on weather and climate do not extend very far into nonirrigated regions. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union