41,406 research outputs found
Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh Sunspot Classifications
Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes
lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use
information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static
point-in-time observations. Here, a new forecast method is presented based upon
the 24-hr evolution in McIntosh classification of sunspot groups.
Evolution-dependent C1.0 and M1.0 flaring rates are found
from NOAA-numbered sunspot groups over December 1988 to June 1996 (Solar Cycle
22; SC22) before converting to probabilities assuming Poisson statistics. These
flaring probabilities are used to generate operational forecasts for sunspot
groups over July 1996 to December 2008 (SC23), with performance studied by
verification metrics. Major findings are: i) considering Brier skill score
(BSS) for C1.0 flares, the evolution-dependent McIntosh-Poisson
method () performs better than the static
McIntosh-Poisson method (); ii) low BSS
values arise partly from both methods over-forecasting SC23 flares from the
SC22 rates, symptomatic of C1.0 rates in SC23 being on average
80% of those in SC22 (with M1.0 being 50%); iii)
applying a bias-correction factor to reduce the SC22 rates used in forecasting
SC23 flares yields modest improvement in skill relative to climatology for both
methods ( and
) and improved
forecast reliability diagrams.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figure
Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap
This paper, which is a revised version of the ADB Working Paper on Regional Economic Integration No. 2, reviews trends in East Asian regionalism in the areas of trade and investment, money and finance, and infrastructure. It finds that trade and, to a lesser extent, financial integration is starting to increase in the region. It also finds that business cycles are starting to be more synchronized, enhancing the case for further monetary integration among these countries. The paper also outlines a roadmap for East Asian integration.
Multiple causes of interannual sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean
The eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean is subject to interannual fluctuations of sea surface temperatures, with climatic impacts on the surrounding continents. The dynamic mechanism underlying Atlantic temperature variability is thought to be similar to that of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific, where air-sea coupling leads to a positive feedback between surface winds in the western basin, sea surface temperature in the eastern basin, and equatorial oceanic heat content. Here we use a suite of observational data, climate reanalysis products, and general circulation model simulations to reassess the factors driving the interannual variability. We show that some of the warm events can not be explained by previously identified equatorial wind stress forcing and ENSO-like dynamics. Instead, these events are driven by a mechanism in which surface wind forcing just north of the equator induces warm ocean temperature anomalies that are subsequently advected toward the equator. We find the surface wind patterns are associated with long-lived subtropical sea surface temperature anomalies and suggest they therefore reflect a link between equatorial and subtropical Atlantic variability
Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap
This paper reviews trends in East Asian regionalism in the areas of trade and investment, money and finance, and infrastructure. It presents various measures of trade and financial integration. An important finding of the paper is that increasing trade and financial integration in the region is now starting to lead to a synchronization of business cycles in a selected group of countries, further enhancing the case for monetary integration among these countries. The paper also outlines a roadmap for East Asian integration.ASEAN/East Asian economic cooperation and integration; business cycle synchronization; free trade agreements; policy coordination
Digital image correlation (DIC) analysis of the 3 December 2013 Montescaglioso landslide (Basilicata, Southern Italy). Results from a multi-dataset investigation
Image correlation remote sensing monitoring techniques are becoming key tools for
providing effective qualitative and quantitative information suitable for natural hazard assessments,
specifically for landslide investigation and monitoring. In recent years, these techniques have
been successfully integrated and shown to be complementary and competitive with more standard
remote sensing techniques, such as satellite or terrestrial Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry.
The objective of this article is to apply the proposed in-depth calibration and validation analysis,
referred to as the Digital Image Correlation technique, to measure landslide displacement.
The availability of a multi-dataset for the 3 December 2013 Montescaglioso landslide, characterized
by different types of imagery, such as LANDSAT 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) and TIRS
(Thermal Infrared Sensor), high-resolution airborne optical orthophotos, Digital Terrain Models
and COSMO-SkyMed Synthetic Aperture Radar, allows for the retrieval of the actual landslide
displacement field at values ranging from a few meters (2–3 m in the north-eastern sector of the
landslide) to 20–21 m (local peaks on the central body of the landslide). Furthermore, comprehensive
sensitivity analyses and statistics-based processing approaches are used to identify the role of the
background noise that affects the whole dataset. This noise has a directly proportional relationship to
the different geometric and temporal resolutions of the processed imagery. Moreover, the accuracy
of the environmental-instrumental background noise evaluation allowed the actual displacement
measurements to be correctly calibrated and validated, thereby leading to a better definition of
the threshold values of the maximum Digital Image Correlation sub-pixel accuracy and reliability
(ranging from 1/10 to 8/10 pixel) for each processed dataset
Application of chiral nuclear forces to light nuclei
In these proceedings, we discuss the current status of nuclear bound state
predictions based on chiral nuclear interactions. Results of ordinary - and
-shell nuclei and light hypernuclei are shown.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, corrected typos in Table 5, version as publishe
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