33,075 research outputs found
Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh Sunspot Classifications
Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes
lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use
information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static
point-in-time observations. Here, a new forecast method is presented based upon
the 24-hr evolution in McIntosh classification of sunspot groups.
Evolution-dependent C1.0 and M1.0 flaring rates are found
from NOAA-numbered sunspot groups over December 1988 to June 1996 (Solar Cycle
22; SC22) before converting to probabilities assuming Poisson statistics. These
flaring probabilities are used to generate operational forecasts for sunspot
groups over July 1996 to December 2008 (SC23), with performance studied by
verification metrics. Major findings are: i) considering Brier skill score
(BSS) for C1.0 flares, the evolution-dependent McIntosh-Poisson
method () performs better than the static
McIntosh-Poisson method (); ii) low BSS
values arise partly from both methods over-forecasting SC23 flares from the
SC22 rates, symptomatic of C1.0 rates in SC23 being on average
80% of those in SC22 (with M1.0 being 50%); iii)
applying a bias-correction factor to reduce the SC22 rates used in forecasting
SC23 flares yields modest improvement in skill relative to climatology for both
methods ( and
) and improved
forecast reliability diagrams.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figure
Generative deep fields : arbitrarily sized, random synthetic astronomical images through deep learning
© 2019 The Author(s) Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are a class of artificial neural network that can produce realistic, but artificial, images that resemble those in a training set. In typical GAN architectures these images are small, but a variant known as Spatial-GANs (SGANs) can generate arbitrarily large images, provided training images exhibit some level of periodicity. Deep extragalactic imaging surveys meet this criteria due to the cosmological tenet of isotropy. Here we train an SGAN to generate images resembling the iconic Hubble Space Telescope eXtreme Deep Field (XDF). We show that the properties of 'galaxies' in generated images have a high level of fidelity with galaxies in the real XDF in terms of abundance, morphology, magnitude distributions and colours. As a demonstration we have generated a 7.6-billion pixel 'generative deep field' spanning 1.45 degrees. The technique can be generalised to any appropriate imaging training set, offering a new purely data-driven approach for producing realistic mock surveys and synthetic data at scale, in astrophysics and beyond.Peer reviewe
Digital image correlation (DIC) analysis of the 3 December 2013 Montescaglioso landslide (Basilicata, Southern Italy). Results from a multi-dataset investigation
Image correlation remote sensing monitoring techniques are becoming key tools for
providing effective qualitative and quantitative information suitable for natural hazard assessments,
specifically for landslide investigation and monitoring. In recent years, these techniques have
been successfully integrated and shown to be complementary and competitive with more standard
remote sensing techniques, such as satellite or terrestrial Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry.
The objective of this article is to apply the proposed in-depth calibration and validation analysis,
referred to as the Digital Image Correlation technique, to measure landslide displacement.
The availability of a multi-dataset for the 3 December 2013 Montescaglioso landslide, characterized
by different types of imagery, such as LANDSAT 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) and TIRS
(Thermal Infrared Sensor), high-resolution airborne optical orthophotos, Digital Terrain Models
and COSMO-SkyMed Synthetic Aperture Radar, allows for the retrieval of the actual landslide
displacement field at values ranging from a few meters (2–3 m in the north-eastern sector of the
landslide) to 20–21 m (local peaks on the central body of the landslide). Furthermore, comprehensive
sensitivity analyses and statistics-based processing approaches are used to identify the role of the
background noise that affects the whole dataset. This noise has a directly proportional relationship to
the different geometric and temporal resolutions of the processed imagery. Moreover, the accuracy
of the environmental-instrumental background noise evaluation allowed the actual displacement
measurements to be correctly calibrated and validated, thereby leading to a better definition of
the threshold values of the maximum Digital Image Correlation sub-pixel accuracy and reliability
(ranging from 1/10 to 8/10 pixel) for each processed dataset
Observations of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect at high angular resolution towards the galaxy clusters A665, A2163 and CL0016+16
We report on the first observation of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect with the
Diabolo experiment at the IRAM 30 metre telescope. A significant brightness
decrement is detected in the direction of three clusters (Abell 665, Abell 2163
and CL0016+16). With a 30 arcsecond beam and 3 arcminute beamthrow, this is the
highest angular resolution observation to date of the SZ effect.Comment: 23 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables, accepted to New Astronom
Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap
This paper, which is a revised version of the ADB Working Paper on Regional Economic Integration No. 2, reviews trends in East Asian regionalism in the areas of trade and investment, money and finance, and infrastructure. It finds that trade and, to a lesser extent, financial integration is starting to increase in the region. It also finds that business cycles are starting to be more synchronized, enhancing the case for further monetary integration among these countries. The paper also outlines a roadmap for East Asian integration.
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PERSIANN-MSA: A precipitation estimation method from satellite-based multispectral analysis
Visible and infrared data obtained from instruments onboard geostationary satellites have been extensively used for monitoring clouds and their evolution. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) that will be launched onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) series in the near future will offer a larger range of spectral bands; hence, it will provide observations of cloud and rain systems at even finer spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions than are possible with the current GOES. In this paper, a new method called Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed information using Artificial Neural Networks-Multispectral Analysis (PERSIANN-MSA) is proposed to evaluate the effect of using multispectral imagery on precipitation estimation. The proposed approach uses a self-organizing feature map (SOFM) to classify multidimensional input information, extracted from each grid box and corresponding textural features of multispectral bands. In addition, principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimensionality to a few independent input features while preserving most of the variations of all input information. The above method is applied to estimate rainfall using multiple channels of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. In comparison to the use of a single thermal infrared channel, the analysis shows that using multispectral data has the potential to improve rain detection and estimation skills with an average of more than 50% gain in equitable threat score for rain/no-rain detection, and more than 20% gain in correlation coefficient associated with rain-rate estimation. © 2009 American Meteorological Society
Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap
This paper reviews trends in East Asian regionalism in the areas of trade and investment, money and finance, and infrastructure. It presents various measures of trade and financial integration. An important finding of the paper is that increasing trade and financial integration in the region is now starting to lead to a synchronization of business cycles in a selected group of countries, further enhancing the case for monetary integration among these countries. The paper also outlines a roadmap for East Asian integration.ASEAN/East Asian economic cooperation and integration; business cycle synchronization; free trade agreements; policy coordination
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