Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

River stage prediction based on a distributed support vector regression

Author name used in this publication: K. W. Chau2008-2009 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalAccepted ManuscriptPublishe

Support vector machine in chaotic hydrological time series forecasting

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Hydraulic-hydrologic model for the Zambezi River using satellite data and artificial intelligence techniques

The development of hydraulic-hydrologic models is a challenge in the case of large catchment areas with scarce or erroneous measurement data and observations. With his study Mr. Dr. José Pedro Matos made several original contributions in order to overcome this challenge. The scientific developments were applied at Zambezi River basin in Africa in the framework of the interdisciplinary African Dams research project (ADAPT). First of all, procedures and selection criteria for satellite data regarding topography, rainfall, land use, soil types and cover had to be developed. With the goal to extend the time scope of the analysis, Dr. Matos introduced a novel Pattern-Oriented Memory (POM) historical rainfall interpolation methodology. When POM interpolated rainfall is applied to hydrologic models it effectively opens up new possibilities related to extended calibration and the simulation of historical events, which would otherwise be difficult to exploit. A new scheme for rainfall aggregation was proposed, based on hydraulic considerations and easily implemented resorting to remote sensing data, which was able to enhance forecasting results. Dr. Matos used machine-learning models in an innovative way for discharge forecast. He compared the alternative models (e.g. Autoregressive Moving-Average (ARMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support-Vector Regression (SVR)). Dr. Matos made then significant contributions to the enhancement of rainfall aggregation techniques and the study of limitations inherent to SVR forecasting model. He proposed also a novel method for developing empirical forecast probability distributions. Finally Dr. Matos could successfully calibrate, probably for the first time, a daily hydrological model covering the whole Zambezi River basin (ZRB)

Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead time streamflow forecasting

We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino–Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906–2001 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes with 3 years lead time. The SVM model is trained with 86 years of data (1906–1991) and tested with 10 years of data (1992–2001). On the basis of correlation coefficient, root means square error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, reveals a strong signal for ENSO and NAO indices as compared to PDO and AMO indices for the long lead time streamflow forecast. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feedforward back propagation artificial neural network model and linear regression

Machine Learning with Metaheuristic Algorithms for Sustainable Water Resources Management

The main aim of this book is to present various implementations of ML methods and metaheuristic algorithms to improve modelling and prediction hydrological and water resources phenomena having vital importance in water resource management

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

Surrogate Optimization of Deep Neural Networks for Groundwater Predictions

Sustainable management of groundwater resources under changing climatic conditions require an application of reliable and accurate predictions of groundwater levels. Mechanistic multi-scale, multi-physics simulation models are often too hard to use for this purpose, especially for groundwater managers who do not have access to the complex compute resources and data. Therefore, we analyzed the applicability and performance of four modern deep learning computational models for predictions of groundwater levels. We compare three methods for optimizing the models' hyperparameters, including two surrogate model-based algorithms and a random sampling method. The models were tested using predictions of the groundwater level in Butte County, California, USA, taking into account the temporal variability of streamflow, precipitation, and ambient temperature. Our numerical study shows that the optimization of the hyperparameters can lead to reasonably accurate performance of all models (root mean squared errors of groundwater predictions of 2 meters or less), but the ''simplest'' network, namely a multilayer perceptron (MLP) performs overall better for learning and predicting groundwater data than the more advanced long short-term memory or convolutional neural networks in terms of prediction accuracy and time-to-solution, making the MLP a suitable candidate for groundwater prediction.Comment: submitted to Journal of Global Optimization; main paper: 25 pages, 19 figures, 1 table; online supplement: 11 pages, 18 figures, 3 table

Weather forecasting using artificial neural network

This project studies the better weather forecasting approaches. In this study, Kuching city been selected as the study area. The Kuching meteorology data used in this study is collected from the Malaysian Meteorological Department. Artificial neural network (ANN) is adopted in this study as ANN has better performance and it can perform weather forecasting better than conventional weather forecast model. Two neural network algorithms, Back Propagation (BPNN) and Radial Basis Function (RBFNN) were tested with the Kuching meteorology data set. Both neural network models are trained and tested with different testing criteria, thus the results and performance generated by these two neural network algorithms were compared. The experimental results showed that the BPNN model has better performance in weather forecasting compared to RBFNN