The Independence Axiom and the Bipolar Behaviorist

Developments in the theory of risk require yet another evaluation of the behavioral validity of the independence axiom. This axiom plays a central role in most formal statements of expected utility theory, as well as popular alternative models of decision-making under risk, such as rank-dependent utility theory. It also plays a central role in experiments used to characterize the way in which risk preferences deviate from expected utility theory. If someone claims that individuals behave as if they "probability weight" outcomes, and hence violate the independence axiom, it is invariably on the basis of experiments that must assume the independence axiom. We refer to this as the Bipolar Behavioral Hypothesis: behavioral economists are pessimistic about the axiom when it comes to characterizing how individuals directly evaluate two lotteries in a binary choice task, but are optimistic about the axiom when it comes to characterizing how individuals evaluate multiple lotteries that make up the incentive structure for a multiple-task experiment. Building on designs that have a long tradition in experimental economics, we offer direct tests of the axiom and the evidence for probability weighting. We reject the Bipolar Behavioral Hypothesis: we find that nonparametric preferences estimated for the rank-dependent utility model are significantly affected when one elicits choices with procedures that require the independence assumption, as compared to choices with procedures that do not require that assumption. We also demonstrate this result with familiar parametric preference specifications, and draw general implications for the empirical evaluation of theories about risk.

Mathematical Fuzzy Logic in the Emerging Fields of Engineering, Finance, and Computer Sciences

Mathematical fuzzy logic (MFL) specifically targets many-valued logic and has significantly contributed to the logical foundations of fuzzy set theory (FST). It explores the computational and philosophical rationale behind the uncertainty due to imprecision in the backdrop of traditional mathematical logic. Since uncertainty is present in almost every real-world application, it is essential to develop novel approaches and tools for efficient processing. This book is the collection of the publications in the Special Issue “Mathematical Fuzzy Logic in the Emerging Fields of Engineering, Finance, and Computer Sciences”, which aims to cover theoretical and practical aspects of MFL and FST. Specifically, this book addresses several problems, such as:- Industrial optimization problems- Multi-criteria decision-making- Financial forecasting problems- Image processing- Educational data mining- Explainable artificial intelligence, etc

Cognitive finance: Behavioural strategies of spending, saving, and investing.

Research in economics is increasingly open to empirical results. The advances in behavioural approaches are expanded here by applying cognitive methods to financial questions. The field of "cognitive finance" is approached by the exploration of decision strategies in the financial settings of spending, saving, and investing. Individual strategies in these different domains are searched for and elaborated to derive explanations for observed irregularities in financial decision making. Strong context-dependency and adaptive learning form the basis for this cognition-based approach to finance. Experiments, ratings, and real world data analysis are carried out in specific financial settings, combining different research methods to improve the understanding of natural financial behaviour. People use various strategies in the domains of spending, saving, and investing. Specific spending profiles can be elaborated for a better understanding of individual spending differences. It was found that people differ along four dimensions of spending, which can be labelled: General Leisure, Regular Maintenance, Risk Orientation, and Future Orientation. Saving behaviour is strongly dependent on how people mentally structure their finance and on their self-control attitude towards decision space restrictions, environmental cues, and contingency structures. Investment strategies depend on how companies, in which investments are placed, are evaluated on factors such as Honesty, Prestige, Innovation, and Power. Further on, different information integration strategies can be learned in decision situations with direct feedback. The mapping of cognitive processes in financial decision making is discussed and adaptive learning mechanisms are proposed for the observed behavioural differences. The construal of a "financial personality" is proposed in accordance with other dimensions of personality measures, to better acknowledge and predict variations in financial behaviour. This perspective enriches economic theories and provides a useful ground for improving individual financial services

Requirement Analysis and Implementation of Multicriteria Analysis in the NEEDS Project

This report specifies the requirements for and implementation of the multicriteria analysis of future energy technologies performed by a large number of stakeholders within the EU-funded integrated projct NEEDS. The report is composed of two main parts and the appendix. The first part starts with a summary of the objectives of the analysis followed by a detailed specifiation of the analyzed problem, in particular the analysis context, discussion of the sets of criteria and alternatives, and the participation of the stakeholders. Next, the planned problem analysis process is first outlined, and then discussed in more detail. Finally, the requirements for the multicritria analysis are specified. The second part deals with the implementation of the dedicated Web-site developed for this analysis, and later extended to support analysis of any multicriteria choice between discrete alternatives. It starts with an overview of the problem analysis process and the corresponding basic assumptions. Te architecture of the application and its features are then presented. Lessons learned from the development and use of this application conclude this part of the report. The appendix contains a review of the state-of-the-art of applying multicriteria analysis to energy problems, as well as characteristics of three applications that exploit the multicriteria analysis methods for energy problems considered relevant to the analysis reported in this paper

The Independence Axiom and the Bipolar Behaviorist

Developments in the theory of risk require yet another evaluation of the behavioral validity of the independence axiom. This axiom plays a central role in most formal statements of expected utility theory, as well as popular alternative models of decision-making under risk, such as rank-dependent utility theory. It also plays a central role in experiments used to characterize the way in which risk preferences deviate from expected utility theory. If someone claims that individuals behave as if they “probability weight” outcomes, and hence violate the independence axiom, it is invariably on the basis of experiments that must assume the independence axiom. We refer to this as the Bipolar Behavioral Hypothesis: behavioral economists are pessimistic about the axiom when it comes to characterizing how individuals directly evaluate two lotteries in a binary choice task, but are optimistic about the axiom when it comes to characterizing how individuals evaluate multiple lotteries that make up the incentive structure for a multiple-task experiment. Building on designs that have a long tradition in experimental economics, we offer direct tests of the axiom and the evidence for probability weighting. We reject the Bipolar Behavioral Hypothesis: we find that nonparametric preferences estimated for the rank-dependent utility model are significantly affected when one elicits choices with procedures that require the independence assumption, as compared to choices with procedures that do not require that assumption. We also demonstrate this result with familiar parametric preference specifications, and draw general implications for the empirical evaluation of theories about risk

An eclectic theory of entrepreneurship: policies, institutions and culture

Analyse van de factoren (bijv. economische en sociale) die het niveau van ondernemerschap bepalen. Het niveau van ondernemerschap kan verklaard worden door onderscheid te maken in aanbodzijde (arbeidsmarkt) en vraagzijde (productmarkt) en de invloed van overheidsmaatregelen op ondernemerschap. Het ontwikkelde model kan gebruikt worden om de verschillen in ondernemerschap in tijd en plaats te verklaren.

A systematic review on multi-criteria group decision-making methods based on weights: analysis and classification scheme

Interest in group decision-making (GDM) has been increasing prominently over the last decade. Access to global databases, sophisticated sensors which can obtain multiple inputs or complex problems requiring opinions from several experts have driven interest in data aggregation. Consequently, the field has been widely studied from several viewpoints and multiple approaches have been proposed. Nevertheless, there is a lack of general framework. Moreover, this problem is exacerbated in the case of experts’ weighting methods, one of the most widely-used techniques to deal with multiple source aggregation. This lack of general classification scheme, or a guide to assist expert knowledge, leads to ambiguity or misreading for readers, who may be overwhelmed by the large amount of unclassified information currently available. To invert this situation, a general GDM framework is presented which divides and classifies all data aggregation techniques, focusing on and expanding the classification of experts’ weighting methods in terms of analysis type by carrying out an in-depth literature review. Results are not only classified but analysed and discussed regarding multiple characteristics, such as MCDMs in which they are applied, type of data used, ideal solutions considered or when they are applied. Furthermore, general requirements supplement this analysis such as initial influence, or component division considerations. As a result, this paper provides not only a general classification scheme and a detailed analysis of experts’ weighting methods but also a road map for researchers working on GDM topics or a guide for experts who use these methods. Furthermore, six significant contributions for future research pathways are provided in the conclusions.The first author acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Universities [grant number FPU18/01471]. The second and third author wish to recognize their support from the Serra Hunter program. Finally, this work was supported by the Catalan agency AGAUR through its research group support program (2017SGR00227). This research is part of the R&D project IAQ4EDU, reference no. PID2020-117366RB-I00, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/ 501100011033.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Behavioral assessment of social structure and guest provisioning program participation of zoo-housed giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) under varying spatial availability.

Close encounters with animals are considered integral for visitors and are trademark components of traditional educational engagement in zoological parks. As capacity for up-close encounters continue to increase with a simultaneous development in the field of animal welfare science, behavioral assessments on the role of common close encounters is timely. Giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) visitor feeding programs are established in approximately 57% of institutions accredited by Association of Zoos and Aquariums. Due to successful breeding and capacity building for zoological giraffe populations, this percentage will likely continue to increase. There is a great deal of variation in the environmental design of giraffe visitor feeding programs across institutions and limited understanding on the role of these variables on individual and group welfare for giraffes. The first chapter of this study behaviorally assesses the effects of space availability and observes the role of feed-type in the usage, interaction types, and measures of welfare in two different zoological institutions. Findings indicate that increased space availability increase sharing by individuals as well length of feeding bouts potentially influencing feeding comfort. Space also modulates aggression at the visitor station as displacement rates decreased with additional space and were overall lower in giraffes housed under large type feeding stations. Results show that individuals increase their displacement rate while at the visitor feeding station, potentially indicating that guest station significantly increases competition among conspecifics. The second chapter explores the role of social structure and dynamics on guest station interactions and usage. Though giraffes are thought to establish predominantly linear dominance hierarchy based on resource competition in zoological settings, the consequence of artificially concentrated resources for the purpose of guest interactions has not been investigated. Zoological studies and recent population studies provide a baseline understanding for the role of pro-social feeding interactions and social structure in giraffe populations as it relates to food distribution, however, there is limited understanding of the role that social structure plays on the usage of guest feeding programs. Here we found that social structure metrics of centrality and importance of affiliative interactions play a role in sharing the guest station, though conspecific direct ties on exhibit are not transferable to ties at the guest station. Additionally, the study indicates that dominance structure as calculated by exhibit displacement interactions does not represent the dominance dynamics observed at the guest station. We suggest a variety of guest engagement opportunities which may better represent the social structure of these populations and suggest assessment of these programs to other institutions. This study validates the benefits of assessing animal behavior in zoological settings under context dependent interactions for the purpose of improving animal welfare enhancing guest engagement opportunities