Environmental changes and violent conflict

This letter reviews the scientific literature on whether and how environmental changes affect the risk of violent conflict. The available evidence from qualitative case studies indicates that environmental stress can contribute to violent conflict in some specific cases. Results from quantitative large-N studies, however, strongly suggest that we should be careful in drawing general conclusions. Those large-N studies that we regard as the most sophisticated ones obtain results that are not robust to alternative model specifications and, thus, have been debated. This suggests that environmental changes may, under specific circumstances, increase the risk of violent conflict, but not necessarily in a systematic way and unconditionally. Hence there is, to date, no scientific consensus on the impact of environmental changes on violent conflict. This letter also highlights the most important challenges for further research on the subject. One of the key issues is that the effects of environmental changes on violent conflict are likely to be contingent on a set of economic and political conditions that determine adaptation capacity. In the authors' view, the most important indirect effects are likely to lead from environmental changes via economic performance and migration to violent conflict. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd

The fate of cooperation during range expansions

Cooperation is beneficial for the species as a whole, but, at the level of an individual, defection pays off. Natural selection is then expected to favor defectors and eliminate cooperation. This prediction is in stark contrast with the abundance of cooperation at all levels of biological systems: from cells cooperating to form a biofilm or an organism to ecosystems and human societies. Several explanations have been proposed to resolve this paradox, including direct reciprocity, kin, and group selection. However, our work builds upon an observation that selection on cooperators might depend both on their relative frequency in the population and on the population density. We find that this feedback between the population and evolutionary dynamics can substantially increase the frequency of cooperators at the front of an expanding population, and can even lead to a splitting of cooperators from defectors. After splitting, only cooperators colonize new territories, while defectors slowly invade them from behind. Since range expansions are very common in nature, our work provides a new explanation of the maintenance of cooperation

Envisioning 2050: climate change, aquaculture and fisheries in West Africa. Dakar, Senegal 14-16 April 2010

This report presents the activities and results of the workshop Envisioning 2050: Climate Change, Aquaculture and Fisheries in West Africa. The objectives of the workshop were to discuss critical issues and uncertainties faced by the fisheries and aquaculture sector in Ghana, Senegal and Mauritania, build sectoral scenarios for 2050 and discuss the implication of these scenarios in the context of climate change for the countries and the region

Temporary labour migration for victims of natural disasters: the Columbia-Spain model

Environmental degradation is increasingly causing large-scale migration. This paper looks into international labour migration as a strategy to adapt to a changing environment. Facilitating legal migration for persons affected by environmental degradation can prevent them from being forcibly displaced, can reduce their vulnerability to future environmental disruptions, and can contribute to the development of vulnerable communities. This paper analyses how ‘environmental migration’ could be facilitated, through a case study of the Colombian Temporary and Circular Labour Migration project. Through this innovative migration model, based on an agreement between Colombia and Spain, Colombians facing recurring natural disasters, are offered a livelihood alternative through temporary work abroad, while affected zones can recuperate. This programme, supported by the IOM, illustrates how a European member State can enable vulnerable people to migrate overseas by providing labour migration opportunities for selected beneficiaries. By supporting migrants in maximizing the impact of remittances on the recovery of their place of origin, the TCLM programme increases their resilience to natural disasters, and offers them an alternative to permanent and/or urban migration. The paper discusses the normative framework supporting the TCLM programme, and identifies some conditions for the replication of the programme in other states. The potential of the project for both development and adaptation to environmental changes is being considered

Economic and Environmental Effectiveness of a Technology-based Climate Protocol

The present stalemate in climate negotiations has led policy analysts and economists to explore the possible emergence of alternative climate regimes. This paper explores the idea of replacing international cooperation on greenhouse gas emission control with international cooperation on climate-related technological innovation and diffusion. This idea – recently proposed among others by Barrett (2001) and Benedick (2001) – is based on the insight that incentives to free-ride are much smaller in the case of technological cooperation than in the case of cooperation on emission control. This paper provides a first applied game theory analysis of a technology-based climate protocol by assessing: (i) the self-enforcingness (namely, the absence of incentives to free ride) of the coalition that would form when countries negotiate on climate-related technological cooperation; (ii) the environmental effectiveness of a technology-based climate protocol. The analysis is carried out by using a model in which endogenous and induced technical change are explicitly modelled and in which international technological spillovers are also quantified. The results of our analysis partly support Barrett’s and Benedick’s conjecture. On the one hand, a self-enforcing agreement is more likely to emerge when countries cooperate on environmental technological innovation and diffusion than when they cooperate on emission abatement. However, technological cooperation – without any commitment to emission control – may not lead to a sufficient abatement of greenhouse gas concentrations.Agreements, Climate, Incentives, Technological change, Policy

Climate change impacts on migration and labour market

Floods, droughts and monsoons have always disturbed human settlements, but there are more settlements now and more people in the world. Therefore, if a natural disaster happens, more will suffer than ever before. Moreover, climate in the past several decades has been greatly degraded by anthropogenic activity. In some cases, the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (e.g. the effects of irrigation on local humidity), though there are instances where it is less clear. Presently, the scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase of global average temperatures, more generally known as global warming

Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas : work document

Background information about: Nile delta (Egypt), Incomati delta (Mozambique), Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh), Yangtze (China), Ciliwung (Indonesia), Mekong (Vietnam), Rhine-Meuse (The Netherlands), Danube (Romania), California Bay-Delta, Mississippi River Delta (USA

Conformity enhances network reciprocity in evolutionary social dilemmas

The pursuit of highest payoffs in evolutionary social dilemmas is risky and sometimes inferior to conformity. Choosing the most common strategy within the interaction range is safer because it ensures that the payoff of an individual will not be much lower than average. Herding instincts and crowd behavior in humans and social animals also compel to conformity on their own right. Motivated by these facts, we here study the impact of conformity on the evolution of cooperation in social dilemmas. We show that an appropriate fraction of conformists within the population introduces an effective surface tension around cooperative clusters and ensures smooth interfaces between different strategy domains. Payoff-driven players brake the symmetry in favor of cooperation and enable an expansion of clusters past the boundaries imposed by traditional network reciprocity. This mechanism works even under the most testing conditions, and it is robust against variations of the interaction network as long as degree-normalized payoffs are applied. Conformity may thus be beneficial for the resolution of social dilemmas.Comment: 8 two-column pages, 5 figures; accepted for publication in Journal of the Royal Society Interfac

Annotated bibliography on the economic effects of global climate change on fisheries

Fisheries, Bibliography, Climatic changes

Sanitation under Stress: How Can Urban Services Respond to Acute Migration?

This working paper aims to identify key research questions around the successes and failures of urban governance structures in delivering essential services to populations following large migration movements.It does so through a review of the existing literature on the subject. It then unpacks how conflict-induced migration has affected Jordan's urban infrastructure and systems for the provision of basic services.In conclusion, we call for a research agenda that can help utilities, governments, non-governmental organisations and other service providers to better understand and overcome the challenges of sanitation provision in urban contexts 'under stress', without reinforcing existing inequalities or creating new ones, and to progress towards realising the Sustainable Development Goals' aspirations for 'universal access to adequate and equitable sanitation' by 2030