A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty

Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.Appropriate Energy-Environment-Economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As such, a comprehensive framework is needed that integrates multiple objectives and uncertainty into a transparent methodology that policy makers and planners can use to analyse and plan for investment in the ESI, in a way which shapes decision outcomes, and enables confident choices to be made. This thesis is aimed at developing such a framework. As a case study the South African ESI was represented using a partial equilibrium (Energy-Economic-Environment) E3 modelling approach. This approach was extended to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension was achieved by assigning cost penalties (PGPs – Pareto Generation Parameters) to non-cost attributes to force the model’s least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. It was shown that using PGPs is an efficient method for extending the analysis to multiple objectives as the solutions generated are non-dominated and are generated from ranges of performances in the various criteria rather than from arbitrarily forcing the selection of particular technologies. Extensive sections of the non-dominated solution space can be generated and later screened to allow further, more detailed exploration of areas of the solution space. Aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty were incorporated into each future expansion alternative (FEA) by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times were taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory were considered within the planning process by splitting power station investments into their Owner’s Development Cost (ODC) and Equipment and Procurement Cost (EPC) components. Hedging in the recourse programming was automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represented. The hedged solutions improved on the naïve solutions under the multiple criteria considered as well as better satisfying the non-cost objectives relative to the base case (least cost solution). From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals could be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty

A review of application of multi-criteria decision making methods in construction

Construction is an area of study wherein making decisions adequately can mean the difference between success and failure. Moreover, most of the activities belonging to this sector involve taking into account a large number of conflicting aspects, which hinders their management as a whole. Multi-criteria decision making analysis arose to model complex problems like these. This paper reviews the application of 22 different methods belonging to this discipline in various areas of the construction industry clustered in 11 categories. The most significant methods are briefly discussed, pointing out their principal strengths and limitations. Furthermore, the data gathered while performing the paper are statistically analysed to identify different trends concerning the use of these techniques. The review shows their usefulness in characterizing very different decision making environments, highlighting the reliability acquired by the most pragmatic and widespread methods and the emergent tendency to use some of them in combination

A framework for technology exploration of aviation environmental mitigation strategies

The goal of this thesis was to develop a framework for modeling relevant environmental performance metrics and objectively simulating the future environmental impacts of aviation given the evolution of the fleet, the development of new technologies, and the expansion of airports. By exchanging fidelity for computational speed, a screening-level framework for assessing aviation's environmental impacts can be developed to observe new insights on fleet-level trends and inform environmental mitigation strategies. This was accomplished by developing per class average ``generic-vehicle" models that can reduce the fleet to a few representative aircraft models for predicting fleet results with reasonable accuracy. The method for Generating Emissions and Noise, Evaluating Residuals and using Inverse method for Choosing the best Alternatives (GENERICA) expands a previous generic vehicle formulation to additionally match DNL contours across a subset of airports. Designs of experiments, surrogate models, Monte Carlo simulations, and ``desirability" scores were combined to set the vehicle design parameters and reduce the mean relative error across the subset of airports. Results show these vehicle models more accurately represented contours at busy airports operating a wide variety of aircraft as compared to a traditional representative-in-class approach. Additionally, a rapid method for assessing population exposure counts was developed and incorporated into the noise tool, and the generic vehicles demonstrated accuracy with respect to population exposure counts for the actual fleet in the baseline year. The capabilities of the enabled framework were demonstrated to show fleet-level trends and explore placement of new runways at capacity constrained airports.Ph.D

Une méthode de tri multicritère multi-périodes pour la sélection de projet en contexte d'incertitude

RÉSUMÉ: Dans les dernières années, le gouvernement du Québec a souligné l'importance de la prise de décision dans un contexte de développement durable et de lutte contre les changements climatiques. L'évaluation des projets dans ce contexte devrait prendre en considération l'équilibre entre les critères économiques, sociaux et environnementaux à court, moyen et long terme. De plus, ces évaluations peuvent être imprécises et tâchées d'incertitude. Les problèmes de décision dans ce contexte sont complexes et caractérisés par les trois aspects suivants, à savoir l'aspect multicritère, l'aspect temporel et l'incertitude. Or, la plupart des méthodes multicritères sont statiques et seules quelques rares méthodes traitent l'aspect temporel des évaluations. En effet, des recherches récentes ont développé des méthodes multicritères multi-périodes de rangement mais au meilleur de notre connaissance, aucune méthode de tri multicritère multi-périodes ne fut développée à date. L'objectif de ce mémoire est de proposer une méthode de tri multicritère multi-périodes dans un contexte d'incertitude pour l'évaluation de la durabilité des projets. La méthode proposée est constituée de deux phases d'agrégation multicritère et d'agrégation multi-périodes. La première phase consiste à conduire les simulations Monte Carlo et à appliquer la méthode SMAA-Tri pour affecter à chaque période le projet à une des catégories prédéfinies. Ensuite, la phase d'agrégation multi-périodes propose d'agréger les résultats obtenus dans chaque période pour arriver à une affectation à la fois multicritère et multi-périodes. La méthode proposée a été appliquée dans le contexte d'aménagement forestier durable. Un projet d'aménagement spécifique qui consiste à implanter un plan de protection spécifique pour l'habitat du caribou a été trié selon un ensemble de critères évalués sur l'horizon de régénération de la forêt de 150 ans. L'incertitude a été simulée par 10000 simulations Monte Carlo à chacune des 30 périodes. Les résultats de cette application démontrent que la méthode proposée permet de généraliser la méthode SMAA Tri au contexte multi-périodes et aboutit à des résultats intéressants. -- Mot(s) clé(s) en français : Sélection de projet, Méthodes de tri multicritère, évaluations multi-périodes, Monte Carlo, incertitude, développement durable. -- ABSTRACT: In the last years, the government of Quebec emphasized sustainable and robust decision making in the context of climate change. Projects evaluation in this context must take into consideration the balance between economic, social and environmental criteria, over the short, medium and long term. Furthermore, decision criteria may be imprecise or uncertain. Decision-making problems in this context are complex and characterized by multi-criteria, temporal and uncertainty aspects. Yet, the majority of the multi-criteria methods are static and only few methods deal with temporal evaluations. In fact, recent studies proposed multi-criteria multi-period ranking methods but to the best of our knowledge, there is no multi-criteria multi-period sorting method proposed yet. The general objective of this research is to propose a multi-criteria multi-period sorting method in the context of uncertainty to be used for sustainability evaluations of projects. The proposed method is composed of two phases, the multi-criteria aggregation phase, and the multi-period aggregation phase. The aggregation phase consists of conducting the Monte-Carlo Simulations and applying the SMAA-TRI method at each period in order to sort the project in one of the predefined categories. Then, the multi-period aggregation proposes to aggregate the results obtained at each period in order to get a global sorting result. The proposed method is applied in the context of sustainable forest management. A particular project of forest management, that aims to implement a specific protection plan for the caribou habitat, is sorted according to a set of criteria evaluated over the regeneration forest horizon of 150 years. Uncertainty has been simulated with 10 000 Monte-Carlo simulations over 30 periods. The results of this application show that the proposed method generalizes the SMAA-TRI method to the multi-period context and provides interesting results. -- Mot(s) clé(s) en anglais : Project selection, multi-criteria sorting methods, multi-period evaluations, Monte Carlo, uncertainty, sustainable development

Advancing sustainable nanotechnology with multiple criteria decision aiding

Nanotechnology is currently emerging as the next industrial revolution. It enables the production of goods (i.e. nanoproducts, NPs) with enhanced functionalities, which have nonetheless caused mounting concerns about the potential implications they can have on the environment, economy and society. This thesis employs Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA), one form of decision support, to aid the sustainable development of nanotechnology. The first original contribution of this doctoral research is the development of a framework of sustainability assessment criteria for NPs, through a three-phase procedure based on the MCDA process, including a literature review, a pilot and a main survey. It lead to a comprehensive framework of 68 criteria, ranked according to their relative importance, allocated to six main domain areas: (i) economic performance; (ii) environmental impacts; (iii) environmental risk assessment; (iv) human health risk assessment; (v) social implications; and (vi) technical performance. All the criteria are reliable and can be used in real case studies to increase the knowledge about the sustainability of NPs. The second original contribution presented in this thesis is a robust model (DRSA-based model) based on green chemistry principles implementation for the classification of synthesis processes of nanomaterials in preference-ordered classes. This tool was developed through knowledge elicitation techniques based on coconstructive MCDA with the collaboration of two experts (the decision makers) in synthesis of nanomaterials. The robustness of the ensuing model was assessed (and confirmed) by means of another model developed ad hoc (ELECTRE-based model), structured on an MCDA method implementing a stochastic multiple criteria classification strategy. The results confirm that MCDA is an effective decision support approach to foster sustainable development of nanotechnology, providing that the analysts who apply it take these considerations into account. They must ensure that (1) multidisciplinary teams are created to perform comprehensive and credible sustainability evaluations; (2) problem structuring and model construction are as important as (if not more important) than the results (i.e. decision recommendations) themselves; (3) identification of the appropriate MCDA method depends on the problem at hand and not vice-versa; and (4) the credibility of the decision recommendations is subject to the preferences of the decision-makers. If these considerations are accounted for, the possibility of advancing nanotechnology on a sustainable path is very concrete and realistic

-ilities Tradespace and Affordability Project – Phase 3

One of the key elements of the SERC’s research strategy is transforming the practice of systems engineering and associated management practices – “SE and Management Transformation (SEMT).” The Grand Challenge goal for SEMT is to transform the DoD community’s current systems engineering and management methods, processes, and tools (MPTs) and practices away from sequential, single stovepipe system, hardware-first, document-driven, point- solution, acquisition-oriented approaches; and toward concurrent, portfolio and enterprise- oriented, hardware-software-human engineered, model-driven, set-based, full life cycle approaches.This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract H98230-08- D-0171 (Task Order 0031, RT 046).This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract H98230-08- D-0171 (Task Order 0031, RT 046)

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in the Bolivian Andes

The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier area reduction and volume loss in recent decades. This study finds that from 1986 to 2018 glacier areas have shrunk from 529 km2 to 281 km2 (49 %) in the Bolivian Cordillera Oriental. Glacier melting and recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which can pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities. Therefore, glacier bed topographies were extracted and illustrate the potential development of 68 future lakes. Eight of these lakes possess populations downstream. A simple geometric model (MC-LCP) was used to model GLOFs from these potential future lakes, illustrating that ~1100 to ~2900 people could be affected by flooding if these lakes were to appear and to burst. The rest of this work is dedicated on the estimation of the risk from current, already existing lakes. Multi- Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous proglacial lakes in regions around the world without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of proglacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. After testing the robustness of the MCDA model against a number of past GLOFs, it was applied to the Bolivian Cordillera Oriental. From the 25 lakes possessing populations downstream, 3 lakes were found to pose ‘medium’ or ‘high’ risk, and required further detailed investigation. Since no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these proglacial lakes, 2m resolution DEMs were generated from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model (HEC-RAS 5.0.3) of GLOF flow. The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, ~1100 to ~2200 people could be directly affected by outburst flooding

Strategies for sustainable socio-economic development and mechanisms their implementation in the global dimension

The authors of the book have come to the conclusion that it is necessary to effectively use modern approaches to developing and implementation strategies of sustainable socio-economic development in order to increase efficiency and competitiveness of economic entities. Basic research focuses on economic diagnostics of socio-economic potential and financial results of economic entities, transition period in the economy of individual countries and ensuring their competitiveness, assessment of educational processes and knowledge management. The research results have been implemented in the different models and strategies of supply and logistics management, development of non-profit organizations, competitiveness of tourism and transport, financing strategies for small and medium-sized enterprises, cross-border cooperation. The results of the study can be used in decision-making at the level the economic entities in different areas of activity and organizational-legal forms of ownership, ministries and departments that promote of development the economic entities on the basis of models and strategies for sustainable socio-economic development. The results can also be used by students and young scientists in modern concepts and mechanisms for management of sustainable socio-economic development of economic entities in the condition of global economic transformations and challenges

Efficient Decision Support Systems

This series is directed to diverse managerial professionals who are leading the transformation of individual domains by using expert information and domain knowledge to drive decision support systems (DSSs). The series offers a broad range of subjects addressed in specific areas such as health care, business management, banking, agriculture, environmental improvement, natural resource and spatial management, aviation administration, and hybrid applications of information technology aimed to interdisciplinary issues. This book series is composed of three volumes: Volume 1 consists of general concepts and methodology of DSSs; Volume 2 consists of applications of DSSs in the biomedical domain; Volume 3 consists of hybrid applications of DSSs in multidisciplinary domains. The book is shaped upon decision support strategies in the new infrastructure that assists the readers in full use of the creative technology to manipulate input data and to transform information into useful decisions for decision makers