Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

A rule-based machine learning model for financial fraud detection

Financial fraud is a growing problem that poses a significant threat to the banking industry, the government sector, and the public. In response, financial institutions must continuously improve their fraud detection systems. Although preventative and security precautions are implemented to reduce financial fraud, criminals are constantly adapting and devising new ways to evade fraud prevention systems. The classification of transactions as legitimate or fraudulent poses a significant challenge for existing classification models due to highly imbalanced datasets. This research aims to develop rules to detect fraud transactions that do not involve any resampling technique. The effectiveness of the rule-based model (RBM) is assessed using a variety of metrics such as accuracy, specificity, precision, recall, confusion matrix, Matthew’s correlation coefficient (MCC), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values. The proposed rule-based model is compared to several existing machine learning models such as random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), naive Bayes (NB), and logistic regression (LR) using two benchmark datasets. The results of the experiment show that the proposed rule-based model beat the other methods, reaching accuracy and precision of 0.99 and 0.99, respectively

Adaptive algorithms for real-world transactional data mining.

The accurate identification of the right customer to target with the right product at the right time, through the right channel, to satisfy the customer’s evolving needs, is a key performance driver and enhancer for businesses. Data mining is an analytic process designed to explore usually large amounts of data (typically business or market related) in search of consistent patterns and/or systematic relationships between variables for the purpose of generating explanatory/predictive data models from the detected patterns. It provides an effective and established mechanism for accurate identification and classification of customers. Data models derived from the data mining process can aid in effectively recognizing the status and preference of customers - individually and as a group. Such data models can be incorporated into the business market segmentation, customer targeting and channelling decisions with the goal of maximizing the total customer lifetime profit. However, due to costs, privacy and/or data protection reasons, the customer data available for data mining is often restricted to verified and validated data,(in most cases,only the business owned transactional data is available). Transactional data is a valuable resource for generating such data models. Transactional data can be electronically collected and readily made available for data mining in large quantity at minimum extra cost. Transactional data is however, inherently sparse and skewed. These inherent characteristics of transactional data give rise to the poor performance of data models built using customer data based on transactional data. Data models for identifying, describing, and classifying customers, constructed using evolving transactional data thus need to effectively handle the inherent sparseness and skewness of evolving transactional data in order to be efficient and accurate. Using real-world transactional data, this thesis presents the findings and results from the investigation of data mining algorithms for analysing, describing, identifying and classifying customers with evolving needs. In particular, methods for handling the issues of scalability, uncertainty and adaptation whilst mining evolving transactional data are analysed and presented. A novel application of a new framework for integrating transactional data binning and classification techniques is presented alongside an effective prototype selection algorithm for efficient transactional data model building. A new change mining architecture for monitoring, detecting and visualizing the change in customer behaviour using transactional data is proposed and discussed as an effective means for analysing and understanding the change in customer buying behaviour over time. Finally, the challenging problem of discerning between the change in the customer profile (which may necessitate the effective change of the customer’s label) and the change in performance of the model(s) (which may necessitate changing or adapting the model(s)) is introduced and discussed by way of a novel flexible and efficient architecture for classifier model adaptation and customer profiles class relabeling