71,108 research outputs found

    Classification-relevant Importance Measures for the West German Business Cycle

    Get PDF
    When analyzing business cycle data, one observes that the relevant predictor variables are often highly correlated. This paper presents a method to obtain measures of importance for the classification of data in which such multicollinearity is present. In systems with highly correlated variables it is interesting to know what changes are inflicted when a certain predictor is changed by one unit and all other predictors according to their correlation to the first instead of a ceteris paribus analysis. The approach described in this paper uses directional derivatives to obtain such importance measures. It is shown how the interesting directions can be estimated and different evaluation strategies for characteristics of classification models are presented. The method is then applied to linear discriminant analysis and multinomial logit for the classification of west German business cycle phases. --

    Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany

    Get PDF
    This paper examines the consequences of using "real-time" data for business cycle analysis in Germany based on a novel data set covering quarterly real output data from 1968 to 2001. Real-time output gaps are calculated. They differ considerably from their counterparts based on the most recent data. Moreover, they are not rational forecasts of the final series. The consequences of using real-time data for inflation forecasts, the dynamic interaction of output gaps and inflation, and stylised facts of the business cycle are also addressed. The results suggest that revisions of data and estimates can seriously distort research and policy implications. --Real-time data,business cycles,output gap,VAR,inflation,Germany

    Product market competition, corporate governance and firm performance: an empirical analysis for Germany

    Get PDF
    Productivity growth has been slow in many continental European countries over the last few decades, especially in comparison with the United States. It has been argued that lack of product market competition and poor corporate governance are two of the main reasons for this phenomenon. However, predictions from theoretical models are far from unambiguous, and empirical evidence is sparse, in particular at the level of individual firms. In this paper, we aim to close this gap with an econometric analysis of firm performance in Germany. Based on a unique panel data set with detailed information on almost 400 manufacturing firms over the 1986-94 period, we find that firms operating in industries which are characterized by more intensive product market competition experience higher rates of productivity growth. We also find weak evidence for the notion that in Germany?s bank-based system of internal control, ownership concentration is harmful for productivity growth. --competition,corporate governance,productivity

    Does Innovation Cause Exports? Evidence from Exogenous Innovation Impulses and Obstacles

    Get PDF
    Trade and growth theories predict a mutual causation of innovation and exports. We test empirically whether innovation causes exports using a uniquely rich German micro dataset. Our instrumental-variable strategy identifies variation in innovative activity that is caused by specific impulses and obstacles reported by the firms, which can reasonably be viewed as exogenous to firms’ export performance. We find that innovation attributable to this variation leads to an increase of roughly 7 percentage points in the export share of German manufacturing firms. The evidence is robust to several alternative specifications, similar for product and process innovations, and heterogeneous across sectors.innovation, export, trade, product cycle, German manufacturing firms, Ifo innovation survey

    Innovation in the European chemical industry

    Get PDF
    Firms in the European chemical industry have been among the most successful firms world wide. However, they have had to undertake severe restucturing in order to maintain their market position. These efforts focused in particular on strengthening their innovative capability as product and process innovation have become the most decisive factors in global competition. In order to improve the innovative conditions, the European Commission has supported the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). 1992/1993 was the first time that large-scale harmonised innovation surveys were carried out in all Member States of the European Union. This study uses the CIS micro data from nearly 2000 European chemical firms. This study focuses on the identification of innovative trends within the chemical industry between 1984 and 1993. Using data from annual reports of nine selected European stock companies, the study identifies those areas of the chemical industry currently having the highest innovative potential. Three speciality categories are identified as having the highest number of innovations during this ten year period: chemicals, paints/varnishes, and plastics. -- Obwohl viele europäische Unternehmen der chemischen Industrie in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten zu den erfolgreichsten in der Welt zählten, mußten sie sich Anfang der neunziger Jahre einem gravierenden Strukturwandel unterziehen, um ihre Position behaupten zu können. Die Fähigkeit der Unternehmen, Innovationen hervorzubringen, stand und steht dabei im Mittelpunkt. Mit dem Ziel, die Rahmenbedingungen für Innovationen zu verbessern, führte die EU-Kommission 1993 eine europaweite Innovationserhebung, den Community Innovation Survey (CIS) durch. In dieser Studie wurden die anonymisierten Antworten von nahezu 2000 Unternehmen der chemischen Industrie analysiert. Um Innovationstrends aufzuzeigen zu können, wurden darüber hinaus Geschäftsberichte von neun großen europäischen Chemieunternehmen ausgewertet. So wurden die Sparten Spezialitäten, Farben/Lacke und Kunststoffe als diejenigen Sparten identifiziert, die im Untersuchungszeitraum (1984-1993) die meisten Innovationen aufwiesen.

    Micro-macro links in West Germany's unemployment

    Get PDF
    The main point of this paper will be that West German unemployment in the late 1980's has a curious double character: while its genesis is largely determined by the macroeconomic events of the last two decades - two stabilization crises and one wage revolution -, its current state reveals strongly microeconomic features which call for micro rather than macro policy measures. To make our case, we proceed as follows. In section II of the paper, we clear up our use of the terms 'macro' and 'micro' which may diverge somewhat from the normal textbook wording. In section III, we evaluate four major macro-paradigms of unemployment in West Germany: the traditional Keynesian demand-gap and the neoclassical wage-gap approach, the transatlantic crowding-out theory as recently advanced by Fitoussi, Phelps (1988), and, at some length, the hysteresis- theory as pioneered by Blanchard, Summers (1986a, b, c; 1988). We shall argue that none of these paradigms provides a sufficient explanation of the current persistence of unemployment in Germany, but that some of them - notably the wage-gap and the hysteresis-theory - contain most valuable elements; what they all lack is a due account of the structural and institutional (i.e. the 'micro') elements which are likely to cement an economy's macro inclination towards hysteresis. In section IV, we try to fill this gap by postdelivering a summary of these elements, with a focus on the structure of long-term unemployment, regional disparities and structural change between sectors of economic activity. In the final section V, we briefly evaluate different employment policy options and, from our own standpoint, make a policy choice.

    Entrepreneurship, entry and performance of new business compared in two growth regimes: East and West Germany

    Get PDF
    The paper provides an outline of the concept of regional growth regimes and empirically illustrates the relevance of the concept. The empirical examples are entrepreneurship, entry and the performance of new businesses in East and West Germany. The differences of the factors determining the formation of new businesses as well as their development between these two growth regimes are immense and clearly demonstrate the relevance of region specific factors. -- Der Aufsatz skizziert das Konzept regionaler Wachstumsregime und illustriert die Relevanz des Konzepts mit einem empirischen Beispiel. Als Beispiel dienen Entrepreneurship, Marktzutritt und Erfolg von neu gegründeten Betrieben in Ost- und Westdeutschland. Die Unterschiede hinsichtlich der Bestimmungsgründe von Gründungen als auch die Unterschiede ihrer Entwicklung sind immens und belegen klar die Relevanz von regionalspezifischen Faktoren.Growth regimes,new business formation,new business performance,location,regional influences,Wachstumsregime,Betriebsgründungen,Gründungserfolg,Standort,regionale Einflüsse

    Time- or State-Dependence? An Analysis of Inflation Dynamics using German Business Survey Data

    Get PDF
    This paper evaluates the predictions of different price setting theories using a new dataset constructed from a large panel of business surveys of German retail firms over the period 1970-2010. The dataset contains firm-specific information on both price realizations and expectations. Aggregating the price data we find clear evidence in favor of state-dependence; for periods of relatively high and volatile inflation not only the size of price changes (intensive margin) but also the fraction of price adjustment (extensive margin) is important for aggregate inflation dynamics. Moreover, at the business cycle frequency, variations in the extensive margin explain a large fraction of inflation variability even for moderate inflation periods. This holds both for price realizations and expectations suggesting a role for state-dependent sticky plan models. Moreover, results from a structural sign-restriction VAR model show that the extensive margin reacts significantly to a monetary policy shock and is more important for the response of overall inflation than the intensive margin conditional on the shock. These findings confirm the validity of state-dependent pricing models that stress the importance of the extensive margin - even for low inflation periods

    Data analytics 2016: proceedings of the fifth international conference on data analytics

    Get PDF
    corecore