Proceedings of JAC 2010. Journées Automates Cellulaires

The second Symposium on Cellular Automata “Journ´ees Automates Cellulaires” (JAC 2010) took place in Turku, Finland, on December 15-17, 2010. The first two conference days were held in the Educarium building of the University of Turku, while the talks of the third day were given onboard passenger ferry boats in the beautiful Turku archipelago, along the route Turku–Mariehamn–Turku. The conference was organized by FUNDIM, the Fundamentals of Computing and Discrete Mathematics research center at the mathematics department of the University of Turku. The program of the conference included 17 submitted papers that were selected by the international program committee, based on three peer reviews of each paper. These papers form the core of these proceedings. I want to thank the members of the program committee and the external referees for the excellent work that have done in choosing the papers to be presented in the conference. In addition to the submitted papers, the program of JAC 2010 included four distinguished invited speakers: Michel Coornaert (Universit´e de Strasbourg, France), Bruno Durand (Universit´e de Provence, Marseille, France), Dora Giammarresi (Universit` a di Roma Tor Vergata, Italy) and Martin Kutrib (Universit¨at Gie_en, Germany). I sincerely thank the invited speakers for accepting our invitation to come and give a plenary talk in the conference. The invited talk by Bruno Durand was eventually given by his co-author Alexander Shen, and I thank him for accepting to make the presentation with a short notice. Abstracts or extended abstracts of the invited presentations appear in the first part of this volume. The program also included several informal presentations describing very recent developments and ongoing research projects. I wish to thank all the speakers for their contribution to the success of the symposium. I also would like to thank the sponsors and our collaborators: the Finnish Academy of Science and Letters, the French National Research Agency project EMC (ANR-09-BLAN-0164), Turku Centre for Computer Science, the University of Turku, and Centro Hotel. Finally, I sincerely thank the members of the local organizing committee for making the conference possible. These proceedings are published both in an electronic format and in print. The electronic proceedings are available on the electronic repository HAL, managed by several French research agencies. The printed version is published in the general publications series of TUCS, Turku Centre for Computer Science. We thank both HAL and TUCS for accepting to publish the proceedings.Siirretty Doriast

HydroPol2D -- Distributed Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model: Challenges and Opportunities in Poorly-Gauged Catchments

Floods are one of the deadliest natural hazards and are fueled by excessive urbanization. Urban development decreases infiltration by reducing pervious areas and increases the accumulation of pollutants during dry weather. During wet weather events, there is an increase in the levels of pollution concentrations and stormwater runoff that eventually reach creeks and rivers. Polluted stormwater runoff may be sources of water supply. Modeling the quantity and quality dynamics of stormwater runoff requires a coupled hydrodynamic module capable of estimating the transport and fate of pollutants. In this paper, we evaluate the applicability of a distributed hydrodynamic model coupled with a water quality model (HydroPol2D). First, the model is compared to GSSHA and WCA2D in the V-Tilted catchment, and the limitation of the critical velocity of WCA2D is investigated. We also applied the model in a laboratory wooden board catchment, focusing on the validation of the numerical approach to simulate water quality dynamics. Then, we apply HydroPol2D in the Tijuco Preto catchment, in Sao Carlos - Brazil, and compare the modeling results with the full momentum solver of the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River System Analysis (HEC-RAS). The model implementation, the governing equations, and the estimation of input data are discussed, indicating the challenges and opportunities of the application of distributed models in poorly-gauged catchments. For a 1-yr return period of rainfall and antecedent dry days and assuming an uncertainty of $40\%$ in the water quality parameters, the results indicate that the maximum concentration of total suspended solids (TSS), the maximum load and the mass of the pollutant washed in $30\%$ of the volume are, $456~\pm~260~\mathrm{mg.L^{-1}.km^{-2}}$, $\mathrm{2.56 \pm 0.4~kg.s^{-1}.km^{-2}}$, and $\mathrm{89\%~\pm~10\%}$, respectively.Comment: Preprint submitted to Journal of Hydrolog

Sociophysics: A review of Galam models

We review a series of models of sociophysics introduced by Galam and Galam et al in the last 25 years. The models are divided in five different classes, which deal respectively with democratic voting in bottom up hierarchical systems, decision making, fragmentation versus coalitions, terrorism and opinion dynamics. For each class the connexion to the original physical model and technics are outlined underlining both the similarities and the differences. Emphasis is put on the numerous novel and counterintuitive results obtained with respect to the associated social and political framework. Using these models several major real political events were successfully predicted including the victory of the French extreme right party in the 2000 first round of French presidential elections, the voting at fifty - fifty in several democratic countries (Germany, Italy, Mexico), and the victory of the no to the 2005 French referendum on the European constitution. The perspectives and the challenges to make sociophysics a predictive solid field of science are discussed.Comment: 17 pages, 20 figure

Modeling Deforestation and CO2 Emissions in Tropical Forests (Western South Amazon)

Spatial modeling is a tool to represent deforestation and predict future scenarios according to different landscape change. Establishing 80% Legal Reserve Area (LR) in the Amazon since 90th, the Brazilian forestry code has made clear the biodiversity conservation profile of the largest tropical forest in the world. However, this mechanism did not prevent the advance of deforestation, which in recent years has increased again. This remote tool aims to monitor the deforestation, simulating its possible future trajectories, and thus generate information that can be used to assist in the management of deforestation reduction. The spatial modeling in the prediction of different deforestation scenarios based on public policies and their changes to the state of Acre (north of Brazil). Using the methodological processes of the Dinamica EGO software, three scenarios were projected up to the year 2050: (1) deforestation “Business as usual”, (2) deforestation with 50% LR and (3) deforestation with 80% LR provided by law. Based on these results it was evident that maintaining and respect 80% LR, it’s possible reduce the CO2 emissions more than 76%, avoiding around 119,534,836 t of CO2 and influences positively on reducing deforestation. Dinamica EGO proved to be an effective to represent the deforestation

Mathematics

The inherent complexity of criminal behaviour means that it is not a topic to which the field of mathematics has traditionally been thought to apply. In recent years, however, the study of crime has mirrored that of several other social phenomena in attracting increased attention from within the mathematical community. As well as being facilitated by a dramatic revolution in data availability, this has largely been driven by the growth of mathematical tools designed to confront the challenges presented by such systems; an approach encapsulated by the term ‘complexity science’. This chapter outlines the ways in which mathematical approaches can contribute to the understanding of crime, with particular emphasis on the role of modelling in offering insight into the mechanisms underlying criminal phenomena. A number of mathematical approaches are reviewed in this context, including dynamical systems theory, network science and game theory. Following this, previous research of this type on a number of criminological topics is reviewed, before the chapter concludes by considering the outlook for work in this area and some key issues which remain to be resolved

Proceedings of AUTOMATA 2011 : 17th International Workshop on Cellular Automata and Discrete Complex Systems

International audienceThe proceedings contain full (reviewed) papers and short (non reviewed) papers that were presented at the workshop

Urban segregation as a complex system : an agent-based simulation approach

Urban segregation represents a significant barrier for achieving social inclusion in cities. To overcome this, it is necessary to implement policies founded upon a better understanding of segregation dynamics. However, a crucial challenge for achieving such understanding lies in the fact that segregation is a complex system. It emerges from local interactions able to produce unexpected and counterintuitive outcomes that cannot be defined a priori. This study adopts an agent-based simulation approach that addresses the complex nature of segregation. It proposes a model named MASUS, Multi-Agent Simulator for Urban Segregation, which provides a virtual laboratory for exploring theoretical issues and policy approaches concerning segregation. The MASUS model was first implemented for São José dos Campos, a medium-sized Brazilian city. Based on the data of this city, the model was parameterized and calibrated. The potential of MASUS is demonstrated through three different sets of simulation experiments. The first compares simulated data with real data, the second tests theories about segregation, and the third explores the impact of anti-segregation policies. The first set of experiments provides a retrospective validation of the model by simulating the segregation dynamics of São José dos Campos during the period 1991-2000. In general, simulated and real data reveal the same trends, a result that demonstrates that the model is able to accurately represent the segregation dynamics of the study area. The second set of experiments aims at demonstrating the potential of the model to explore and test theoretical issues about urban segregation. These experiments explore the impact of two mechanisms on segregation: income inequality and personal preferences. To test the impact of income inequality, scenarios considering different income distributions were simulated and compared. The results show how decreasing levels of income inequality promote the spatial integration of different social groups in the city. Additional tests were conducted to explore how the preferences of high-income families regarding the presence of other income groups could affect segregation patterns. The results reveal that the high levels of segregation were maintained even in a scenario where affluent households did not take into account the income composition of neighborhoods when selecting their residential location. Finally, the third set of experiments provides new insights about the impact of different urban policies on segregation. One experiment tests whether the regularization of clandestine settlements and equitable distribution of infrastructure would affect the segregation trends in the city. The simulated outputs indicate that they had no significant impact on the segregation patterns. Besides this test focusing on a general urban policy, two specific social-mix policy approaches were explored: poverty dispersion and wealth dispersion. The results suggest that policies based on poverty dispersion, which have been adopted in cities in Europe and the United States, are less effective in developing countries, where poor families represent a large share of the population. On the other hand, the policy based on wealth dispersion was able to produce substantial and long-term improvements in the segregation patterns of the city.Städtische Segregation als komplexes System : Ein agentenbasierter Simulationsansatz Die städtische Segregation stellt eine bedeutende Barriere für die Erreichung der sozialen Inclusion in den Städten dar. Um diese zu überwinden, ist es notwendig, eine Politik zu betreiben, die die Dynamiken der Segregation besser versteht und berücksichtigt. Eine besondere Herausforderung für ein besseres Verständnis dieser Dynamik ist die Tatsache, dass Segregation ein komplexes System ist. Dieses System entsteht aus lokalen Interaktionen, die zu unerwarteten und nicht eingängigen Ergebnissen führt, die nicht von vornherein bestimmt werden können. Diese Studie wendet einen multi-agenten Simulationsmodel an, das die komplexe Natur der Segregation berücksichtigt. Es schlägt ein Modell mit dem Namen MASUS (Multi-Agent Simulator for Urban Segregation) vor. Dieses bietet ein virtuelles Labor für die Untersuchung der theoretischen Aspekte und Politikansätze der Segregation. Das Modell wurde für São José dos Campos, eine mittelgroße brasilianische Stadt, eingesetzt. Das Modell wurde auf der Grundlage der Daten dieser Stadt parametisiert und kallibriert. Das Potenzial von MASUS wird durch drei verschiedene Arten von Simulationsexperimente dargestellt. Die erste vergleicht simulierte Daten mit realen Daten, die zweite prüft Segregationstheorien, und die dritte untersucht die Auswirkungen von Antisegregationspolitik. Die erste Gruppe von Experimenten liefert eine rückblickende Validierung des Modells durch die Simulation der Segregationsdynamiken von São José dos Campos im Zeitraum 1991-2000. Die simulierten und realen Daten zeigen im Allgemeinen die gleichen Trends. Dies zeigt, dass das Modell in der Lage ist, die Segregationsdynamik im Untersuchungsgebiet korrekt darzustellen. Die zweite Gruppe von Experimenten hat zum Ziel, das Potenzial des Modells hinsichtlich der Untersuchung und Prüfung der theoretischen Aspekte städtischer Segregation darzustellen. Diese Experimente untersuchen die Auswirkung von zwei Mechanismen auf Segregation: Einkommensungleichheit und persönliche Präferenzen. Um die Auswirkungen von Einkommensungleichheit zu prüfen, wurden Szenarien mit unterschiedlichen Einkommensverteilungen simuliert und verglichen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen wie abnehmende Einkommenshöhen die räumliche Integration von verschiedenen sozialen Gruppen in der Stadt fördern. Zusätzliche Tests wurden durchgeführt, um zu untersuchen wie die Präferenzen von Haushalten mit hohen Einkommen im Bezug auf das Vorhandensein anderer Einkommensgruppen die Segregationsmuster beeinflussen könnten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Segregation auf hohem Niveau blieb sogar in einem Szenario wo wohlhabende Haushalte das Einkommensgefüge der Nachbarschaft bei der Wahl ihrer Wohngegend nicht berücksichtigten. Die dritte Gruppe von Experimenten führt zu neuen Einsichten über die Auswirkungen von verschiedenen städtischen politischen Maßnahmen auf die Segregation. Ein Experiment prüft ob die Regulierung von illegalen Siedlungen und die gleichmäßige Verteilung der Infrastruktur die Segregationstrends in der Stadt beeinflussen. Die Ergebnisse der Simulation zeigen, dass diese keine signifikante Auswirkung auf die Segregationsmuster haben. Neben diesem Test, der die allgemeine städtische Politik zum Inhalt hat, wurden zwei Ansätze der spezifischen Sozialen-Mix-Politik untersucht: Armutsverteilung und Wohlstandsverteilung. Die Ergebnisse deuten daraufhin, dass eine Politik der Armutsverteilung, die aus europäischen und nordamerikanischen Städten bekannt ist, weniger wirkungsvoll in Entwicklungsländern ist, wo arme Familien einen Großteil der Bevölkerung darstellen. Auf der anderen Seite führte eine Politik der Wohlstandsverteilung zu erheblichen und langfristigen Verbesserungen der Segregationsmuster der Stadt

The urban regulation of rural land from the perspective of the new Law for the Promotion of Territorial Sustainability in Andalusia (Andalusian Land Law)

Since their inception, various urban planning laws have focused on meeting the growth needs of cities, with urban planning as a discipline paying minimal attention to rural settlement planning. It can, therefore sound clichéd to say that urban planning legislation has been mainly concerned with regulating urban and developable land, with residual or negative status being given to undevelopable or rural land. This has had major territorial impacts that continue to this day. The proposed subject of this paper is considered timely and topical, and its main objective is to analyse whether the planning instruments proposed in the Law for the Promotion of Territorial Sustainability in Andalusia (LISTA, acronym in Spanish) for rural settlements and scattered buildings can help regulate rural land dynamics in Andalusia. To do so, we will first model the patterns of settlement formation and isolated dwellings on rural land using geostatistical methods, and then carry out an analysis of the provisions of these latest rural land management laws, which will affect the planning regulations of this land in the coming years

2014 GREAT Day Program

SUNY Geneseo’s Eighth Annual GREAT Day.https://knightscholar.geneseo.edu/program-2007/1008/thumbnail.jp