28,556 research outputs found

    Modeling and Analysis of Clandestine Networks

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    Since Sept. 11, 2001, there has been great interest in the military and intelligence communities in using Social Network Analysis (SNA) to support the disruption and destruction of global terrorist networks. SNA results, however, tend to be descriptive and are limited due to the lack of advantageous properties of the relationship measures applied to the arcs in a social network. Further, SNA techniques generally focus on a single network context while real relationships are based in multiple contexts. This thesis develops a new proxy measure of pair-wise potential influence between members of a network, a Holistic Interpersonal Influence Measure (HIIM). The HIIM considers the topology of the multiple formal and informal networks to which group members belong as well as non-network characteristics such as age and education level that may indicate potential influence. The HIIM, once constructed results in a network of pair-wise potential influence between group members. Further, the numeric properties of the HIIM are appropriate for use in Operations Research Network Flow models, which will enable analysts to provide prescriptive analysis focused on specific actions and their outcomes. In addition to an overall measure of influence, the HIIM methodology provides important intermediate results such as the development of operational group profiles. The methodology is applied to open source data on both Al Qaeda and the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) terrorist networks. Key leaders are identified, and leadership profiles are developed. Further, a parametric analysis is performed to compare influence based on individual characteristics, network topology characteristics, and mixtures of network and non-network characteristic

    Evaluating drug law enforcement interventions directed towards methamphetamine in Australia

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    This report presents a preliminary analysis comparing the costs and impacts different types of law enforcement have on methamphetamine use. Methamphetamine belongs in the class of stimulant drugs referred to as Amphetamine Type Stimulants (ATS). The category of ATS includes ecstasy, amphetamine and methamphetamine. This research project concerned itself with the amphetamine and methamphetamine class and excluded ecstasy (and henceforth we use the generic term methamphetamine). In Australia, methamphetamine is available in three forms—powder, base and crystal. Methamphetamine is associated with significant harms and is an important drug policy priority. The National Amphetamine-Type Stimulants Strategy (2008–2011) articulates the following priority areas in relation to methamphetamine: improve community awareness and understanding of amphetamine-type stimulant use and related problems; reduce the supply of amphetamine-type stimulants; develop specific strategies to prevent and reduce amphetamine type stimulant use; and develop organisational and system capacity to prevent and respond to amphetamine-type stimulant problems This research concerns the second priority area—reducing the supply of methamphetamine. The specific aims of the research were twofold: to provide a rich description of the Australian methamphetamine supply chains in order to inform drug law enforcement interventions; and to conduct an initial economic evaluation comparing law enforcement interventions directed at the methamphetamine market. The work focused on the methamphetamine market(s) and supply chains in Australia above the retail level. Previous research has examined retail methamphetamine markets in Australia. Governments and policymakers are interested in determining which interventions are more or less effective than others, such that the scarce funding resources can be allocated in the most efficient manner possible. There is scant research available to law enforcement to guide such decisions. The main impediments to such research are the fundamental methodological challenges inherent in such an undertaking. This project is an attempt to conduct a preliminary analysis comparing the costs and impacts of different types of law enforcement. It is a ground-breaking study as this has not been previously attempted and it should be seen as the initial development of a methodological approach that can be improved upon with subsequent research. The project aimed to determine the relative cost-to-impact ratios of different law enforcement strategies aimed at reducing methamphetamine production and distribution. In an environment focused on efficiency in resource allocation, it is hoped that this research will provide the impetus for further research on the effectiveness of drug law enforcement. As the results of such research accumulate, it is hoped that policymakers will be able to use the information to improve decision making on law enforcement investment

    Liberal democracy as the result of an "aborted" communist revolution

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    We propose a model of the transition from a ”big man” authoritarian regime to either a liberal democracy or a communist regime. An underground organization votes on whether to summon a mass event. If it is summoned, the organization members decide whether to put effort into the event. Higher effort makes regime change more likely, but it is individually risky. This creates the possibility, in principle, of high and low effort equilibria. But we show, using weak dominance arguments, that only the high effort equilibrium is ”credible.” Thus, internal party democracy is shown to be an efficiency enhancing element for political transitions. We extend the model to show that other internal organization aspects are key for the existence and welfare properties of this equilibrium. Finally we also show when is the process likely to end up in either democracy (and its ”quality”) or a full communist regime

    Chinese Migrants and Forced Labour in Europe

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    A working paper prepared to support the advocacy mission of the ILO’s Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work and its Follow-up. Focuses on human trafficking of Chinese migrants in Europe and analyzes current Chinese law on trafficking

    Somalia And Survival In The Shadow Of The Global Economy

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    This study examines the capabilities of self-determination movements in Somalia after the collapse of a central state to explain the variable capacities of groups to provide stable orders and understand why leaders of these movements choose particular strategies. The primary factors shaping these strategies and capabilities include (1) the nature and longevity of prewar local elite relations with the central authority of the collapsing state, (2) the social organization of prewar and wartime informal economies in localities, (3) the capacity of local authorities to control, and in some cases, resist efforts of outsiders to mediate conflict, and (4) the capacity of local authorities to regulate commercial transactions with the rest of the world. This study shows that some movements of self-determination in post state collapse environments like Somalia are capable of creating stable polities, but that this accomplishment rests on using social control over wealth and commerce to keep resources to discipline agents who otherwise have an incentive to engage in predation or disrupt this political consolidation.

    Analysis of the temporary evolution of the Romanian migration flows abroad, on migration routes

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    This article analyses the international migration of the Romanians based on their direction, within the extent of 1990-2008. The tendencies are being examined depending on the region of origin and of destination of the migrants and also depending on the residential environment of migrants. The study details the labour circular migration, divided on the fourth main courses. The authors try to conduct a literature review on the subject, emphasising the conclusions of different studies conducted for the considered period.International migration, migration routes, migration flows, circular migration, permanent migration, Romanians migration

    A Study of distorted network : a narrative literature review analysis

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    This paper’s main objective is to study the nature and operational mode of distorted network. Network studies have become popular in many fields of social science due to different emerging global and national events. Specifically, the network theory has become a key framework in understanding and studying network and collaboration. The network theory offers holistic view on structures of interpersonal and inter-group interactions. Distorted network is a contemporary challenge, which is defined as unethical, illegal and criminal networks that exist to promote defined group objectives. Old-boy network and clandestine network are the two key types of distorted networks that exist and their operational modes also differ. A narrative literature review is adopted a strategy in analyzing selected literature on the issue of distorted network. This strategy reveals that the natures and manifestations of distorted network vary from one nation or society to another. The operational boundary of old-boy network is primarily limited to a nation state, while the operational boundary of clandestine network goes beyond a nation state (often international). The latter is justified by the ability of clandestine network to have clients and members at both home and abroad. Countries with clandestine network as main challenge tend to be more corrupt and unstable, because coercion is often adopted as a method of operation. Findings from this paper also include the difficulty to make specification on what type and operational mode of distorted network that can be found in developed or developing states/societies.fi=vertaisarvioimaton|en=nonPeerReviewed

    A visible geography of invisible journeys: Central American migration and the politics of survival

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    Human rights groups have called undocumented Central American migrants the ‘invisible victims’ of criminal violence in Mexico. However, the geography of the unauthorised migration route through Mexico is highly visible; its location, protocols and violent practices constitute common knowledge in the communities through which it cuts its path. This paper examines the visual cues of the route. Images of places, such as the trailhead, the river at the borders, the migrant shelter and the train yard, provide focal points that orient migrants to the physical terrain. These images also orient activists, providing potent symbols for political contestation in favour of migrants’ rights. However, visibility attracts criminal gangs who rob, kidnap and rape migrants, and the gaze of state officials who detain and deport migrants. Thus, this paper traces how geographic icons become beacons to migrants, activists, criminal predators and state actors, and it examines the nature of information and representation under this strategic interaction. It examines how victims and perpetrators become visible to one another
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