Kernel Choice Matters for Boundary Inference using Local Polynomial Density: With Application to Manipulation Testing

Local polynomial density (LPD) estimation has become an essential tool for boundary inference, including manipulation tests for regression discontinuity. It is common sense that kernel choice is not critical for LPD estimation, in analogy to standard kernel smoothing estimation. This paper, however, points out that kernel choice has a severe impact on the performance of LPD, based on both asymptotic and non-asymptotic theoretical investigations. In particular, we show that the estimation accuracy can be extremely poor with commonly used kernels with compact support, such as the triangular and uniform kernels. Importantly, this negative result implies that the LPD-based manipulation test loses its power if a compactly supported kernel is used. As a simple but powerful solution to this problem, we propose using a specific kernel function with unbounded support. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our results with numerous empirical applications and simulations, which show large improvements

A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation.

Multivariate kernel regression is an important tool for investigating the relationship between a response and a set of explanatory variables. It is generally accepted that the performance of a kernel regression estimator largely depends on the choice of bandwidth rather than the kernel function. This nonparametric technique has been employed in a number of empirical studies including the state-price density estimation pioneered by Aït-Sahalia and Lo (1998). However, the widespread usefulness of multivariate kernel regression has been limited by the difficulty in computing a data-driven bandwidth. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is presented to sample the bandwidth vector and other parameters in a multivariate kernel regression model. A Monte Carlo study shows that the proposed bandwidth selector is more accurate than the rule-of-thumb bandwidth selector known as the normal reference rule according to Scott (1992) and Bowman and Azzalini (1997). The proposed bandwidth selection algorithm is applied to a multivariate kernel regression model that is often used to estimate the state-price density of Arrow-Debreu securities. When applying the proposed method to the S&P 500 index options and the DAX index options, we find that for short-maturity options, the proposed Bayesian bandwidth selector produces an obviously different state-price density from the one produced by using a subjective bandwidth selector discussed in Aït-Sahalia and Lo (1998).Black-Scholes formula, Likelihood, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Posterior density.

Consequences of lack of smoothness in nonparametric estimation (in Russian)

Nonparametric estimation is widely used in statistics and econometrics with many asymptotic results relying on smoothness of the underlying distribution, however, there are cases where such assumptions may not hold in practice. Lack of smoothness may have undesirable consequences such as an incorrect choice of window width, large estimation biases and incorrect inference. Optimal combinations of estimators based on different kernel/bandwidth can achieve automatically the best unknown rate of convergence. The combined estimator was successfully applied in density estimation, estimation of average derivatives and for smoothed maximum score in a binary choice model. In the extreme case when density does not exist the estimator "estimates" a non-existent function; nevertheless its limit process can be described in terms of generalized (in terms of generalized functions) Gaussian processes. Inference about existence of density and about its smoothness is not yet well developed; some preliminary results are discussed.

On Smooth Density Estimation for Circular Data

Fisher (1989: J. Structural Geology, 11, 775-778) outlined an adaptation of the linear kernel estimator for density estimation that is commonly used in applications. However, better alternatives are now available based on circular kernels; see e.g. Di Marzio, Panzera, and Taylor, 2009: Statistics & Probability Letters, 79(19), 2066-2075. This paper provides a short review on modern smoothing methods for density and distribution functions dealing with the circular data. We highlight the usefulness of circular kernels for smooth density estimation in this context and contrast it with smooth density estimation based on orthogonal series. It is seen that the wrapped Cauchy kernel as a choice of circular kernel appears as a natural candidate as it has a close connection to orthogonal series density estimation on a unit circle. In the literature, the use of von Mises circular kernel is investigated (see Taylor, 2008: Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 52(7), 3493-3500), that requires numerical computation of Bessel function. On the other hand, the wrapped Cauchy kernel is much simpler to use. This adds further weight to the considerable role of the wrapped Cauchy distribution in circular statistics

Probit transformation for kernel density estimation on the unit interval

Kernel estimation of a probability density function supported on the unit interval has proved difficult, because of the well known boundary bias issues a conventional kernel density estimator would necessarily face in this situation. Transforming the variable of interest into a variable whose density has unconstrained support, estimating that density, and obtaining an estimate of the density of the original variable through back-transformation, seems a natural idea to easily get rid of the boundary problems. In practice, however, a simple and efficient implementation of this methodology is far from immediate, and the few attempts found in the literature have been reported not to perform well. In this paper, the main reasons for this failure are identified and an easy way to correct them is suggested. It turns out that combining the transformation idea with local likelihood density estimation produces viable density estimators, mostly free from boundary issues. Their asymptotic properties are derived, and a practical cross-validation bandwidth selection rule is devised. Extensive simulations demonstrate the excellent performance of these estimators compared to their main competitors for a wide range of density shapes. In fact, they turn out to be the best choice overall. Finally, they are used to successfully estimate a density of non-standard shape supported on $[0,1]$ from a small-size real data sample

Variance of the bivariate density estimator for left truncated right censored data

Cataloged from PDF version of article.In this study the variance of the bivariate kernel density estimators for the left truncated and right censored (LTRC) observations are considered. In LTRC models, the complete observation of the variable Y is prevented by the truncating variable T and the censoring variable C. Consequently, one observes the i.i.d, samples from the triplets (T,Z,delta) only if T less than or equal to Z, Z=min(Y, C) and delta is one if Z=Y and zero otherwise. Gurler and Prewitt (1997, submitted for publication) consider the estimation of the bivariate density function via nonparametric kernel methods and establish an i.i.d. representation of their estimators. Asymptotic variance of the i.i.d, part of their representation is developed in this paper. Application of the results are also discussed for the data-driven and the least-squares cross validation bandwidth choice procedures. (C) 1999 published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved