Using internet search data to predict new HIV diagnoses in China: a modelling study.

ObjectivesInternet data are important sources of abundant information regarding HIV epidemics and risk factors. A number of case studies found an association between internet searches and outbreaks of infectious diseases, including HIV. In this research, we examined the feasibility of using search query data to predict the number of new HIV diagnoses in China.DesignWe identified a set of search queries that are associated with new HIV diagnoses in China. We developed statistical models (negative binomial generalised linear model and its Bayesian variants) to estimate the number of new HIV diagnoses by using data of search queries (Baidu) and official statistics (for the entire country and for Guangdong province) for 7 years (2010 to 2016).ResultsSearch query data were positively associated with the number of new HIV diagnoses in China and in Guangdong province. Experiments demonstrated that incorporating search query data could improve the prediction performance in nowcasting and forecasting tasks.ConclusionsBaidu data can be used to predict the number of new HIV diagnoses in China up to the province level. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using search query data to predict new HIV diagnoses. Results could potentially facilitate timely evidence-based decision making and complement conventional programmes for HIV prevention

Surveillance and response systems for elimination of tropical diseases : summary of a thematic series in infectious diseases of poverty

The peer-reviewed journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty provides a new platform to engage with, and disseminate in an open-access format, science outside traditional disciplinary boundaries. The current piece reviews a thematic series on surveillance-response systems for elimination of tropical diseases. Overall, 22 contributions covering a broad array of diseases are featured - i.e. clonorchiasis, dengue, hepatitis, human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS), H7N9 avian influenza, lymphatic filariasis, malaria, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), rabies, schistosomiasis and tuberculosis (TB). There are five scoping reviews, a commentary, a letter to the editor, an opinion piece and an editorial pertaining to the theme "Elimination of tropical disease through surveillance and response". The remaining 13 articles are original contributions mainly covering (i) drug resistance; (ii) innovation and validation in the field of mathematical modelling; (iii) elimination of infectious diseases; and (iv) social media reports on disease outbreak notifications released by national health authorities. Analysis of the authors' affiliations reveals that scientists from the People's Republic of China (P.R. China) are prominently represented. Possible explanations include the fact that the 2012 and 2014 international conferences pertaining to surveillance-response mechanisms were both hosted by the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases (NIPD) in Shanghai, coupled with P.R. China's growing importance with regard to the control of infectious diseases. Within 4 to 22 months of publication, three of the 22 contributions were viewed more than 10 000 times each. With sustained efforts focusing on relevant and strategic information towards control and elimination of infectious diseases, Infectious Diseases of Poverty has become a leading journal in the field of surveillance and response systems in infectious diseases and beyond

Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

Representations of SARS in the UK newspapers

In the Spring of 2003, there was a huge interest in the global news media following the emergence of a new infectious disease: severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study examines how this novel disease threat was depicted in the UK newspapers, using social representations theory and in particular existing work on social representations of HIV/AIDS and Ebola to analyse the meanings of the epidemic. It investigates the way that SARS was presented as a dangerous threat to the UK public, whilst almost immediately the threat was said to be ‘contained’ using the mechanism of ‘othering’: SARS was said to be unlikely to personally affect the UK reader because the Chinese were so different to ‘us’; so ‘other’. In this sense, the SARS scare, despite the remarkable speed with which it was played out in the modern global news media, resonates with the meanings attributed to other epidemics of infectious diseases throughout history. Yet this study also highlights a number of differences in the social representations of SARS compared with earlier epidemics. In particular, this study examines the phenomena of ‘emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases’ over the past 30 or so years and suggests that these have impacted on the faith once widely held that Western biomedicine could ‘conquer’ infectious disease

Has Global Health Law Risen to Meet the COVID-19 Challenge? Revisiting the International Health Regulations to Prepare for Future Threats

Global health law is essential in responding to the infectious disease threats of a globalizing world, where no single country, or border, can wall off disease. Yet, the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has tested the essential legal foundations of the global health system. Within weeks, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has circumnavigated the globe, bringing the world to a halt and exposing the fragility of the international legal order. Reflecting on how global health law will emerge in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, it will be crucial to examine the lessons learned in the COVID-19 response and the reforms required to rebuild global health institutions while maintaining core values of human rights, rule of law, and global solidarity in the face of unprecedented threats