An Evidential Reasoning Approach to Fraud Risk Assessment under Dempster-Shafer Theory: A General Framework

This paper develops a general framework under Dempster-Shafer theory for assessing fraud risk in a financial statement audit by integrating the evidence pertaining to the presence of fraud triangle factors (incentives, attitude and opportunities), and evidence concerning both account-based and evidence-based fraud schemes. This framework extends fraud risk assessment models in prior research in three respects. 1) It integrates fraud schemes, both account schemes through which accounts are manipulated, and evidence schemes through which frauds are concealed, into a single framework. 2) It incorporates prior fraud frequency information obtained from the Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission into an evidential network which uses Conditional OR relationships among assertions. 3) The framework provides a structured approach for connecting risk assessment, audit planning, and evaluation of audit results. The paper uses a real fraud case to illustrate the application of the framework

An Evidential Reasoning Approach to Sarbanes-Oxley Mandated Internal Control Risk Assessment

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Mock, T., L. Sun, R. P. Srivastava, and M. Vasarhelyi. " An Evidential Reasoning Approach to Sarbanes-Oxley Mandated Internal Control Risk Assessment under Dempster-Shafer Theory", 2009, ABACUS, Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 66-87. , which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1016/j.accinf.2008.10.003. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.In response to the enactment of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act 2002 and of the release of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) Auditing Standard No. 5, this study develops a risk-based evidential reasoning approach for assessing the effectiveness of internal controls over financial reporting (ICoFR). This approach provides a structured methodology for assessing the effectiveness of ICoFR by considering relevant factors and their interrelationships. The Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions is utilized for representing risk. First, we develop a generic ICoFR assessment model based upon a Big 4 audit firm’s approach and apply it to a real-world example. Then, based on this model, we develop a quantitative representation of various levels of ICoFR effectiveness and related risk-assessment as defined by the PCAOB and contrast these representations with levels implied by Auditing Standard No. 5. In doing so, we demonstrate the potential value of formal risk assessment models in both facilitating the assessment of risks in an individual engagement and in assessing the effects of different regulations

A Hybrid Approach For Information Systems Security Risk Assessment In Electronic Business

In electronic business environment, it is critical for an enterprise to assess information systems security (ISS) risks. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach for ISS risk assessment in e-business. Given there is a great deal of uncertainty in the ISS risk assessment in e-business environment, in the hybrid approach, we combine the evidence theory with fuzzy sets to deal with the uncertain evidence found in the ISS risk assessment. The proposed approach provides a new way to define the basic belief assignment in fuzzy measure. Moreover, the approach also provides a method of testing the evidential consistency, which can reduce the uncertainty derived from the conflicts of evidence. Finally, the approach is further demonstrated and validated via a case study, in which sensitivity analysis is employed to validate the reliability of the proposed approach

Recertification and Reentry to Practice for Nurse Anesthetists: Determining Core Competencies and Evaluating Performance via High-Fidelity Simulation Technology

Introduction The National Board of Certification and Recertification for Nurse Anesthetistsaddressed a barrier to return to practice of uncertified practitioners by replacing required direct patient care experiences with high-fidelity simulation. Objectives The aims of this study were to: (a) validate a set of clinical activities for their relevance to reentry and determine if they could be replicated using simulation, (b) evaluate the content validity of an existing simulation scenario containing the proposed clinical activities and determine its substitutability for a clinical practicum, and (c) evaluate the validity of two methods to assess simulation performance. Methods A modified Delphi method incorporating an autonomous, anonymous, three-round online survey process using three unique expert certified registered nurse anesthetists groups was used to address each study aim. Results Twenty-seven clinical activities gained consensus as necessary to be assessed in the simulation. All 14 survey questions used to determine simulation content validity exceeded the minimum content validity index (CVI) value of 0.78, with a mean CVI of 0.99. The global rating scale CVI and the competency checklist CVI were 0.83 and 1.0, respectively. Conclusion The findings add to the existing literature supporting the utility of simulation for high-stakes provider assessment and certification

Understanding innovators' experiences of barriers and facilitators in implementation and diffusion of healthcare service innovations: A qualitative study

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund - Copyright @ 2011 Barnett et al.Background: Healthcare service innovations are considered to play a pivotal role in improving organisational efficiency and responding effectively to healthcare needs. Nevertheless, healthcare organisations encounter major difficulties in sustaining and diffusing innovations, especially those which concern the organisation and delivery of healthcare services. The purpose of the present study was to explore how healthcare innovators of process-based initiatives perceived and made sense of factors that either facilitated or obstructed the innovation implementation and diffusion. Methods: A qualitative study was designed. Fifteen primary and secondary healthcare organisations in the UK, which had received health service awards for successfully generating and implementing service innovations, were studied. In-depth, semi structured interviews were conducted with the organisational representatives who conceived and led the development process. The data were recorded, transcribed and thematically analysed. Results: Four main themes were identified in the analysis of the data: the role of evidence, the function of inter-organisational partnerships, the influence of human-based resources, and the impact of contextual factors. "Hard" evidence operated as a proof of effectiveness, a means of dissemination and a pre-requisite for the initiation of innovation. Inter-organisational partnerships and people-based resources, such as champions, were considered an integral part of the process of developing, establishing and diffusing the innovations. Finally, contextual influences, both intra-organisational and extra-organisational were seen as critical in either impeding or facilitating innovators' efforts. Conclusions: A range of factors of different combinations and co-occurrence were pointed out by the innovators as they were reflecting on their experiences of implementing, stabilising and diffusing novel service initiatives. Even though the innovations studied were of various contents and originated from diverse organisational contexts, innovators' accounts converged to the significant role of the evidential base of success, the inter-personal and inter-organisational networks, and the inner and outer context. The innovators, operating themselves as important champions and being often willing to lead constructive efforts of implementation to different contexts, can contribute to the promulgation and spread of the novelties significantly.This research was supported financially by the Multidisciplinary Assessment of Technology Centre for Healthcare (MATCH)

A qualitative enquiry into the threshold of acceptable behaviour on the internet: perceptions of police officers and prosecutors on the barriers to successful investigation and prosecution of cyberstalkers

Cyberstalking is a cyber-enabled crime which can be difficult to investigate and prosecute because offenders engage in the conduct in cyber space. The purpose of this study is to highlight the difficulties which police officers and prosecutors perceive hinder them in the investigation and prosecution of cyberstalkers. The study identifies solutions to the perceived difficulties and makes recommendations. The research participants consisted of 50 London prosecutors and 25 police officers. Participants provided data on the topic under investigation in their roles as the primary law enforcement officials who investigate and prosecute cyberstalkers. A Member of Parliament, probation official and Northern Ireland government policy adviser were also interviewed because they provided data from the perspectives of government and probation officials. The qualitative research method of Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was considered most appropriate because the study investigated the lived human experiences of the participants and their perceptions of the topic under investigation. Emergent themes were identified from the numerous interview transcripts and analysed to explore the experiences of the participants in relation to the research questions. The research identified various perceived thresholds for distinguishing rudeness, abuse and unpleasant comments on the internet from cyberstalking. Additionally, the study 6 perceived law enforcement issues which frustrate police officers and prosecutors in the investigation and prosecution of cyberstalkers were identified. The research further revealed that lack of resources, lack of knowledge and evidential difficulties are perceived to impede the investigation and prosecution of cyberstalkers. Importantly, the study found that factors such as shortage of manpower, heavy caseloads, anonymity of cyberstalkers and victim behaviour can prevent police officers from risk assessing victims. The thesis therefore makes recommendations for the recruitment of additional staff, the regular training of police officers and prosecutors on cyberstalking and the education of victims by police officers of the risks posed by cyberstalkers and the implications of not supporting the prosecution of offenders. Importantly, the thesis recommends that police officers should be trained on how to identify, monitor and manage the risks posed by anonymous and mentally ill cyberstalkers. The recommendation for the CPS is based on the researcher’s personal view of the research. The researcher concedes that the research was conducted at a specific time and that a limited number of prosecutors were interviewed for the research. The researcher acknowledges that there has been a lot of training of prosecutors by both the prosecution college and the central training team subsequent to the conclusion of this research. The researcher also recognises that the department is in the process of actively recruiting more prosecutors

Moving Towards the Post p < 0.05 Era via the Analysis of Credibility

It is now widely accepted that the techniques of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) are routinely misused and misinterpreted by researchers seeking insight from data. There is, however, no consensus on acceptable alternatives, leaving researchers with little choice but to continue using NHST, regardless of its failings. I examine the potential for the Analysis of Credibility (AnCred) to resolve this impasse. Using real-life examples, I assess the ability of AnCred to provide researchers with a simple but robust framework for assessing study findings that goes beyond the standard dichotomy of statistical significance/nonsignificance. By extracting more insight from standard summary statistics while offering more protection against inferential fallacies, AnCred may encourage researchers to move toward the post p < 0.05 era

The Ghent Psychotherapy Study (GPS) on the differential efficacy of supportive-expressive and cognitive behavioral interventions in dependent and self-critical depressive patients : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Major depressive disorder is a leading cause of disease burden worldwide, indicating the importance of effective therapies. Outcome studies have shown overall efficacy of different types of psychotherapy across groups, yet large variability within groups. Although patient characteristics are considered crucial in understanding outcome, they have received limited research attention. This trial aims at investigating the interaction between therapeutic approach (pre-structured versus explorative) and the personality style of patients (dependent versus self-critical), which is considered a core underlying dimension of depressive pathology. Methods/design: This study is a pragmatic stratified (dependent and self-critical patients) parallel trial with equal randomization (allocation 1: 1) conducted in Flanders, Belgium. One hundred and four patients will be recruited and randomized to either 16-20 sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy for depression (pre-structured approach) or 16-20 sessions of short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy for depression (explorative approach) conducted by trained psychotherapists in private practices. The primary outcome is the severity of depression as measured by the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression at completion of therapy. Secondary outcome measures include self-reported depressive and other symptoms, interpersonal functioning, idiosyncratic complaints, and the presence of the diagnosis of depression. Additional measures include biological measures, narrative material (sessions, interviews), and health care costs. Discussion: This trial presents the test of an often-described, yet hardly investigated interaction between important personality dimensions and therapeutic approach in the treatment of depression. Results could inform therapists on how to match psychotherapeutic treatments to specific personality characteristics of their patients