Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of cellular traffic in metropolis

ISSN:1536-1233ISSN:1558-066

Understanding Mobile Traffic Patterns of Large Scale Cellular Towers in Urban Environment

Understanding mobile traffic patterns of large scale cellular towers in urban environment is extremely valuable for Internet service providers, mobile users, and government managers of modern metropolis. This paper aims at extracting and modeling the traffic patterns of large scale towers deployed in a metropolitan city. To achieve this goal, we need to address several challenges, including lack of appropriate tools for processing large scale traffic measurement data, unknown traffic patterns, as well as handling complicated factors of urban ecology and human behaviors that affect traffic patterns. Our core contribution is a powerful model which combines three dimensional information (time, locations of towers, and traffic frequency spectrum) to extract and model the traffic patterns of thousands of cellular towers. Our empirical analysis reveals the following important observations. First, only five basic time-domain traffic patterns exist among the 9,600 cellular towers. Second, each of the extracted traffic pattern maps to one type of geographical locations related to urban ecology, including residential area, business district, transport, entertainment, and comprehensive area. Third, our frequency-domain traffic spectrum analysis suggests that the traffic of any tower among the 9,600 can be constructed using a linear combination of four primary components corresponding to human activity behaviors. We believe that the proposed traffic patterns extraction and modeling methodology, combined with the empirical analysis on the mobile traffic, pave the way toward a deep understanding of the traffic patterns of large scale cellular towers in modern metropolis.Comment: To appear at IMC 201

Fine-grained Spatio-Temporal Distribution Prediction of Mobile Content Delivery in 5G Ultra-Dense Networks

The 5G networks have extensively promoted the growth of mobile users and novel applications, and with the skyrocketing user requests for a large amount of popular content, the consequent content delivery services (CDSs) have been bringing a heavy load to mobile service providers. As a key mission in intelligent networks management, understanding and predicting the distribution of CDSs benefits many tasks of modern network services such as resource provisioning and proactive content caching for content delivery networks. However, the revolutions in novel ubiquitous network architectures led by ultra-dense networks (UDNs) make the task extremely challenging. Specifically, conventional methods face the challenges of insufficient spatio precision, lacking generalizability, and complex multi-feature dependencies of user requests, making their effectiveness unreliable in CDSs prediction under 5G UDNs. In this paper, we propose to adopt a series of encoding and sampling methods to model CDSs of known and unknown areas at a tailored fine-grained level. Moreover, we design a spatio-temporal-social multi-feature extraction framework for CDSs hotspots prediction, in which a novel edge-enhanced graph convolution block is proposed to encode dynamic CDSs networks based on the social relationships and the spatio features. Besides, we introduce the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) to further capture the temporal dependency. Extensive performance evaluations with real-world measurement data collected in two mobile content applications demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed solution, which can improve the prediction area under the curve (AUC) by 40.5% compared to the state-of-the-art proposals at a spatio granularity of 76m, with up to 80% of the unknown areas

Time and Location Aware Mobile Data Pricing

Mobile users' correlated mobility and data consumption patterns often lead to severe cellular network congestion in peak hours and hot spots. This paper presents an optimal design of time and location aware mobile data pricing, which incentivizes users to smooth traffic and reduce network congestion. We derive the optimal pricing scheme through analyzing a two-stage decision process, where the operator determines the time and location aware prices by minimizing his total cost in Stage I, and each mobile user schedules his mobile traffic by maximizing his payoff (i.e., utility minus payment) in Stage II. We formulate the two-stage decision problem as a bilevel optimization problem, and propose a derivative-free algorithm to solve the problem for any increasing concave user utility functions. We further develop low complexity algorithms for the commonly used logarithmic and linear utility functions. The optimal pricing scheme ensures a win-win situation for the operator and users. Simulations show that the operator can reduce the cost by up to 97.52% in the logarithmic utility case and 98.70% in the linear utility case, and users can increase their payoff by up to 79.69% and 106.10% for the two types of utilities, respectively, comparing with a time and location independent pricing benchmark. Our study suggests that the operator should provide price discounts at less crowded time slots and locations, and the discounts need to be significant when the operator's cost of provisioning excessive traffic is high or users' willingness to delay traffic is low.Comment: This manuscript serves as the online technical report of the article accepted by IEEE Transactions on Mobile Computin

On the Fundamentals of Stochastic Spatial Modeling and Analysis of Wireless Networks and its Impact to Channel Losses

With the rapid evolution of wireless networking, it becomes vital to ensure transmission reliability, enhanced connectivity, and efficient resource utilization. One possible pathway for gaining insight into these critical requirements would be to explore the spatial geometry of the network. However, tractably characterizing the actual position of nodes for large wireless networks (LWNs) is technically unfeasible. Thus, stochastical spatial modeling is commonly considered for emulating the random pattern of mobile users. As a result, the concept of random geometry is gaining attention in the field of cellular systems in order to analytically extract hidden features and properties useful for assessing the performance of networks. Meanwhile, the large-scale fading between interacting nodes is the most fundamental element in radio communications, responsible for weakening the propagation, and thus worsening the service quality. Given the importance of channel losses in general, and the inevitability of random networks in real-life situations, it was then natural to merge these two paradigms together in order to obtain an improved stochastical model for the large-scale fading. Therefore, in exact closed-form notation, we generically derived the large-scale fading distributions between a reference base-station and an arbitrary node for uni-cellular (UCN), multi-cellular (MCN), and Gaussian random network models. In fact, we for the first time provided explicit formulations that considered at once: the lattice profile, the users’ random geometry, the spatial intensity, the effect of the far-field phenomenon, the path-loss behavior, and the stochastic impact of channel scatters. Overall, the results can be useful for analyzing and designing LWNs through the evaluation of performance indicators. Moreover, we conceptualized a straightforward and flexible approach for random spatial inhomogeneity by proposing the area-specific deployment (ASD) principle, which takes into account the clustering tendency of users. In fact, the ASD method has the advantage of achieving a more realistic deployment based on limited planning inputs, while still preserving the stochastic character of users’ position. We then applied this inhomogeneous technique to different circumstances, and thus developed three spatial-level network simulator algorithms for: controlled/uncontrolled UCN, and MCN deployments